Island Japan, with the help of Russia, is capable of becoming a continental power. At least, this is exactly the phrase Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov used when speaking about the possibility of building a bridge between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. But if the meaning of this gigantic project for Moscow is to some extent visible, then for Tokyo its effect is far from so obvious.
Russia and Japan are discussing the construction of a bridge between Hokkaido and Sakhalin, said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.
“We seriously suggest that our Japanese partners consider the construction of a mixed road-rail crossing from Hokkaido to the southern part of Sakhalin. At the same time, we are close to starting our part of the work - bringing the railway to the Pacific coast and building the same complex transition from the mainland to Sakhalin. In this case, this will provide additional opportunities to use our railway infrastructure, and Japan will become a continental power,” said the First Deputy Prime Minister, speaking at the economic forum in Vladivostok, Interfax reports.
“Is it possible to do this? Perhaps, with modern technology, it is not even that expensive. And we are seriously discussing this with our Japanese partners,” he added.
Shuvalov is talking about two bridges. One should connect Sakhalin Island with the mainland through the Nevelskoy Strait, the other - Sakhalin Island with the Japanese island of Hokkaido through the La Perouse Strait.
The idea of this project has been discussed for a very long time. They dreamed of connecting Sakhalin with the mainland even under Stalin. At the time, these plans looked fantastic, but modern technology has changed a lot. Russia has built a bridge to Russky Island in Vladivostok and is already very close to the construction of the Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula with mainland Russia. Various options for connecting Sakhalin with the mainland were discussed: from the possibility of building a tunnel or dam with a shipping canal to a bridge crossing in various combinations.
Why was the decision to build the Kerch Bridge so quick, but the Sakhalin-mainland bridge has not yet been built? The problem is the economy. With the Crimean Bridge in this regard, everything is very clear - it will become a real impetus for the economic development of the peninsula, and no one doubts the prospects for traffic growth. And, of course, connecting Crimea with the rest of Russia is extremely important from a political point of view.
The appearance of the mainland-island transition will undoubtedly accelerate the development of the Khabarovsk Territory and the Sakhalin Region, this will mean new jobs, tax revenues, etc. Now all goods and food products are delivered to Sakhalin by sea, so their cost is significantly higher than the Russian average. However, Sakhalin is not Crimea; local cargo turnover is much more modest. The appearance of a bridge or tunnel to the mainland will increase transportation along the Selikhin – Nysh line to 9.2 million tons per year. Considering the cost of the bridge, this is not enough.
The bridge crossing across the Nevelskoy Strait itself will cost 286 billion rubles, which is almost 60 billion more than the construction of the Kerch Bridge (228 billion rubles). However, this is not the final cost. As part of the project, it is planned to build a railway from the Selizin station, on the Baikal-Amur Mainline near the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, to the Nysh station, located on Sakhalin Island. Taking this into account, the total cost of the project could rise to 400 billion rubles or even more.If Sakhalin is connected not only to the Russian mainland, but also to the Japanese island of Hokkaido, then a Japan-Russia-EU transport corridor will be created. In this case, transportation could increase several times – up to 33–40 million tons per year, but that’s another conversation. In this situation, the project can provide an economic effect not only for the Sakhalin region and Khabarovsk Territory, but also for the whole of Russia. And it may even pay off, albeit after decades.
Technically, the task of building a bridge across the La Perouse Strait, although not easy, can be solved with modern technologies, says Alexey Kalachev from Finam Group of Companies. This will be a bridge almost 43 km long, but China has experience in building longer bridges. Another thing is that there are no ocean structures of such length in the world, especially in the harsh conditions of the Sea of Okhotsk, Kalachev notes. The average depth in the strait is 20–40 meters, the maximum is 118. In winter, the strait is covered with ice.
But the main obstacle is the high cost. The Sakhalin-Hokkaido bridge was estimated at 400–500 billion rubles back in 2013, but now, Kalachev says, it’s probably one and a half to two times more. Considering that the construction of the Sakhalin-mainland transition will also be required, the final cost of the project may turn out to be many times higher. That is, in total, the two bridges may require more than 1 trillion rubles, and Russia will have to take on a significant part.
And it is unclear where Russia will be able to get hundreds of billions of rubles for the construction of these bridges, even if the funding is divided in half with Japan. Russia is already spending a lot on infrastructure in preparation for the World Cup and the construction of a bridge to Crimea. “In addition, the “pot” of the combined Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund simply does not have such capacity and will not have it in the coming years. All expense items have already been scheduled in advance,” says Anna Bodrova from Alpari.
But the most important thing is that
Japan's interest in this project is not as obvious as Russia's.
Japan receives direct rail access to all countries of Eurasia. It is expected that this route for delivering cargo to Europe will be half as long, and delivery times will be reduced by three times. Thus, by sea, cargo travels 21 thousand km in 40 days, and, for example, by Trans-Siberian Railway through the port of Vostochny, the delivery time is reduced to 18 days.
However, it is more efficient to transport large loads over long distances by sea. “A sea container ship can accommodate from 260 (the smallest) to 18 thousand TEU (standard 20-foot containers). There are already 4 ships with a capacity of 21,000 TEU under construction in the world. And you won’t be able to load more than 140 of these containers onto the longest freight train. It’s faster by train, but by sea it’s more and cheaper per unit of goods,” says Alexey Kalachev. Rail freight transportation, and even more so road freight, can only be more efficient over shorter distances.
“It is, of course, more convenient to ensure Japan’s cargo turnover with Sakhalin by direct rail links than by sea. However, it is unlikely that its volume will be able to recoup such enormous costs that this project will require,” Kalachev doubts. Japan is not yet mature enough to implement this idea, he concludes.
“If you have money, such a bridge can be built, and it will stand as majestic as the bridge to Russky Island, for example. But the demand for such infrastructure is very low, and Moscow cannot afford the price for its ambitions,” agrees Bodrova.
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov spoke about Russia’s large-scale infrastructure plans in the Far East.
“We invite our Japanese partners to consider the possibility of building a mixed road-rail crossing from Hokkaido to the southern part of Sakhalin,” he said on the sidelines of the EEF 2017.
At the same time, according to , Russia is close to starting its part of the work -
bring a railway to the Pacific coast and build “an equally complex transition” from the mainland to Sakhalin.
The First Deputy Prime Minister is confident that this project will give Russia the opportunity to further use its railway infrastructure, while making Japan a “continental power.”
The project plan includes the construction of a railway network on Sakhalin. According to Shuvalov, the project may turn out to be “not very expensive” due to the use of modern technologies in construction.
The Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation stated that the volume of investment in creating a bridge between continental Russia and Sakhalin should amount to about 500 billion rubles.
“The total volume, in accordance with the preliminary feasibility study, and now additional research work is underway, will be about 500 billion rubles in base 2013 prices,” the minister told the agency. It is possible that when the project is implemented, its cost will increase, taking into account the noticeably depreciated ruble exchange rate since then.
As Sokolov noted, within the next budget cycle of the state program for the development of the transport system, both budgetary and extra-budgetary sources will be provided for the implementation of this project.
“Of course, this is a costly undertaking, since from the crossing itself in the area of the Nevelskoy Strait - this is the shortest isthmus between the mainland and Sakhalin Island within the entire Tatar Strait, its length is only 7 km - it is necessary to build access roads from Komsomolsk-on-Amur to the station on the territory of Sakhalin. The length of these access roads is over 500 km,” the minister explained.
According to Sokolov, this project could be implemented in the first half of the 2020s.
Previously, he stated that the land crossing project between Russia and Japan requires at least 75% of budget investments of the total cost.
The first vice-president of Russian Railways told TASS that the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of Japan has created a working group. The partners are working on a project to create a transport link between Russia and Japan.
At the end of 2016, it became known that the Sakhalin authorities were preparing an action plan for joint management of the Southern Kuril Islands with Japan in order to submit it for consideration in Tokyo.
“In the near future, a document containing specific steps will be proposed to the Japanese side. The day before, its details were discussed during a working meeting between the governor, a member from the Sakhalin region and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia,” the regional government said in a statement on its website.
Some initiatives contained in the plan have already been adopted, for example, simplification of the visa regime between countries. The possibilities of free cross-border movement between neighboring regions - Sakhalin and Hokkaido - are currently being discussed.
“Business structures representing the countries are already demonstrating their readiness to further develop mutually beneficial relations. During the visit of the Russian head of state to Japan, Sakhalin concluded a number of agreements with foreign partners,” the statement stated.
It has long been considering the possibility of building a gas pipeline to Japan. So far, this initiative has not been implemented due to a number of obstacles.
In 2014, a gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Hokkaido (total length - 1.35 thousand km) was discussed; the construction cost was estimated at $5 billion. It was assumed that the main part of the pipeline would be built by Japanese companies.
In May 2015, Tokyo Gas proposed to build a gas pipeline with a capacity of 8 billion cubic meters per year from Sakhalin to the central part of Japan. With an increased length (1.5 thousand km), the cost of laying, according to TG estimates, would drop to $3.5 billion.
But given the high seismic activity of the region, laying a pipe from Sakhalin to Japan is very risky.
The Japanese, however, rely on modern technology. Previously, the construction of underwater tunnels between Japanese islands was cited as an example.
The idea of connecting Sakhalin with the mainland with a reliable transport connection, on the one hand, does not lose its relevance, but on the other hand, it is dizzying. But the multi-billion dollar project to create a bridge (tunnel) between the mainland and the island still requires a realistic economic justification.
BRIDGE FOR TWO
The topic of building a railway crossing between Sakhalin and the mainland has again been raised at the state level. The reason was the question about his fate asked to the president of the country on June 15 during the annual “Direct Line”. Then Vladimir Putin recalled that this idea has been around since the beginning of the 20th century: “Iosif Vissarionovich was still thinking about this topic. And even corresponding plans were made, but they were never implemented. Now we are reviving these plans and thinking about this problem.” The head of state did not explain what “reanimation” means.
The project for the transition between Sakhalin and the mainland of Russia, which would present the volume of its financing and payback period, has not yet been prepared, Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation - Plenipotentiary Representative in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev clarified on July 18 in a conversation with the media. “As for the bridge to Sakhalin. I’m used to talking about projects when they are completed, when we understand the volume of financing, we understand the payback period, but this project does not exist in this form yet,” he said (quoted by TASS). Yuri Trutnev added that this project is of interest to the island’s residents, but at the same time suggested that, as soon as it is ready, it should be brought up for real discussion.
According to Sakhalin Governor Oleg Kozhemyako, the transition from Sakhalin to the mainland could be a great achievement for the region and a breakthrough in its economic development. “Today we deliver almost all consumer goods, construction materials, and food products by sea. These are additional costs. All this falls on the cost of food and services that Sakhalin and Kuril residents receive. The construction of the bridge would have a significant impact on the speed of delivery, the quality of products, and their cost,” he said.
The Khabarovsk Territory is also interested in creating such a facility. A bridge or tunnel crossing to Sakhalin is only one of the components of this project. The length of the entire railway between the Selikhin and Nysh stations, including the structure that will connect both banks of the Nevelskoy Strait, is 582 km. Most of the highway will pass through the Khabarovsk Territory. As noted in the regional government, the arrival of the railway in the Ulchsky and Nikolaevsky districts will make it possible to develop additional reserves of gold, alunite, and brown coal. At the same time, a number of deposits, upon further exploration, can be transferred to the category of industrial facilities. There are also prospects for intensifying timber processing in the region. Harvested timber can be delivered by rail from the northern regions of the region to Amursk (Mylki station), where a cluster for the production of various wood products is being organized.
WHAT AND HOW MUCH
The cost of the Selikhin-Nysh road is tentatively estimated at 400 billion rubles, said Alexander Misharin, First Vice President of Russian Railways, on the sidelines of the Innoprom forum in Yekaterinburg in July. Most likely, he voiced old data. Several years ago, a group of domestic transport institutes developed a draft technical specification for the construction of a railway line. The project for the entire communication, taking into account the bridge and tunnel structure, was estimated at prices at the beginning of 2013 at 386.6 billion and 387 billion rubles, respectively. With almost the same cost of options, the construction timeframes are different: it would take 7.5 years to build the line along with the bridge and 9 years to lay the tunnel.
It seems that the most correct figures, taking into account inflation and the depreciation of the ruble during the last crisis, were announced by Vladimir Putin during the “Direct Line”, but only for one object. According to him, the construction of the bridge will first require about 286 billion rubles. (four years ago this work was estimated at 188.8 billion rubles). The President of the Russian Federation clarified that the cost of a bridge to the island will be lower than crossing the Kerch Strait, and it is possible to build a tunnel instead.
At one time, a consortium of transport institutes, when developing a draft technical specification, considered 14 options for creating a transition between the mainland and Sakhalin, including, in addition to the tunnel, even the possibility of constructing a dam with a culvert. From the point of view of construction, operation and associated risks, the construction of a railway bridge from Cape Lazarev (middle section) to Cape Pogibi was considered the most optimal. This is the narrowest section of the strait between the mainland and the island; the length of the object will be just under 6 km. The length of the normal bridge spans will be 110 m, and over the shipping line - 330 m.
The optimal length of the tunnel is 12.5 km. According to the deputy general director of the Giprostroymost Institute, Alexey Vasilkov, this structure would limit the capacity of the entire line in the event of an increase in cargo traffic from the base traffic size scenario. In turn, Russian Railways noted that it is advisable to carry out transportation through a tunnel crossing of such a length using electric locomotive traction, while the entire Selikhin-Nysh section is planned to be non-electrified. Changing trains' diesel locomotive to an electric locomotive when entering the tunnel and back also means limiting the passage of train traffic plus increasing operating costs and the cost of all transportation of goods and passengers along the new route.
It is worth mentioning that the issue of electrifying the Volochaevka-2 – Komsomolsk – Selikhin – Vanino line is currently being considered. True, depending on the stages of the project, this requires approximately from 64.7 billion to 99.1 billion rubles. And construction work will take at least nine years.
JAPANESE CONNECTIONS
The issue of loading and, as a consequence, payback for the Selikhin – Nysh route is a cornerstone issue. “We currently use three train ferries. In addition, ferry ships carry out road transport. Accordingly, on average, 25-28 cars are transferred to Sakhalin per day. This is a small figure - the freight turnover there (Vanino - Kholmsk crossings - EastRussia commentary) does not exceed 1 million tons,” says First Deputy Head of the Far Eastern Railway Igor Filatov.
At the same time, he continues, the coal industry has now become more active on the island, exporting its products. A large coal mine is being developed near the Pobedino station. The Sakhalinskaya GRES is being built near the Ilyinsk station, which will consume a significant amount of coal. “Therefore, railway transport on Sakhalin will definitely be in demand,” sums up Igor Filatov.
The emergence of a direct railway connection would entail the development of existing port facilities in Poronaysk, Nevelsk, and Korsakov. “In this case, the sea ports of Primorye will be relieved from the transportation of goods going to Sakhalin, Kamchatka and the Magadan region, which will allow them to be effectively used for transshipment of export-import cargo,” says Andrey Serenko, director of the Institute of Transport Construction of the Far Eastern State Transport University.
According to the Institute of Economics and Transport Development, with the advent of the mainland-island transition, which will accelerate the development of the Khabarovsk Territory and the Sakhalin region, transportation along the Selikhin-Nysh line could increase to 9.2 million tons per year. This is not much, so experts suggest attracting transit from Japan to the route leading to the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway. If Sakhalin is also connected to the Japanese island of Hokkaido (a tunnel is being considered as an object), a transcontinental Japan-Russia-EU corridor will emerge, which will provide an additional influx of cargo, mainly containers, and will help recoup the project. In this case, annual transportation, according to various estimates, can increase to 33-40 million tons.
According to Alexander Misharin, Russian Railways and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of Japan have created a working group to develop a project for creating a transport link between the countries, part of which will be communication with Sakhalin.
It is worth saying that, with the support of the Coordination Council for Trans-Siberian Transportation, at the end of 2016, a test shipment of a container from Yokohama to Moscow through the Vostochny port was organized. The operator was TransContainer, using the FESCO service for the sea part of cargo transportation. As noted by the Japanese side following the results of the test trip, both in terms of the cost of the complex service and the total time for transportation, which takes about 20 days, the proposed service turned out to be competitive with that in which delivery is carried out by the circular sea route through the Suez Canal (deep-sea) . Transportation under this scheme from Japan to the Baltic ports takes about 45-50 days. At the same time, the Japanese partners proposed to continue working on the possibility of optimizing the service through Russia, including in terms of time, cost and technology, to determine the most optimal option.
The question is how interested Japan is in direct railway communication, argues independent expert Alexander Redko. Today, most of the cargo flow from the Land of the Rising Sun goes to European countries via deep-sea. And in Japan there is a strong local lobby in the form of sea carriers. Although, the expert continues, certain Japanese circles do have an interest in the transit capabilities of the Russian transport system.
If we talk about the option of transportation through Sakhalin, then additional funds will be needed to develop Japanese cargo traffic, not counting investments in the creation of an underwater passage between the countries. At the first stage, while a 42 km long tunnel is being built through the La Perouse Strait, it is planned to send cargo from the port of Wakkanai by sea to Korsakov with further transshipment to the railway. With the opening of the tunnel structure, it will be necessary to build a railway section from Cape Krillon - the southernmost point of Sakhalin - to the nearest Dachnoe station. This requires at least 43.7 billion rubles.
As you can see, enormous funds will be needed for the Sakhalin project. On the other hand, today various logistics schemes are being developed to ensure transit between Asia and Europe. The management of Russian Railways previously pointed out the need to study the impact of alternative transport corridors on the Sakhalin route, primarily the Chinese Silk Road, as well as the Arctic Northern Sea Route. Scientific institutes need to update their cargo base, taking into account possible competition for promising cargo flows. Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov also spoke about the need to calculate the future volume of traffic that will go from Japan in transit through Russia to Europe and back.
There is time for research. In the “Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation”, approved by a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation in July 2014, the main measures for the innovative option provide for the construction of the Selikhin - Nysh line in the period after... 2030.
17:49 — REGNUM
Russia and Japan are discussing the possibility of jointly building a road-railway crossing that will connect Hokkaido and the southern part of the Sakhalin region. This was stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov during the third Eastern Economic Forum, the correspondent reports IA REGNUM 6 September.
According to the Deputy Prime Minister, Russia is already ready to begin its part of the work - to bring the railway to the Pacific coast and build a passage from the mainland to Sakhalin.
Such a proposal from the Russian government was received in connection with the policy of establishing bilateral relations between Russia and Japan. At the end of 2016, the President of the Russian Federation visited the country Vladimir Putin, Russia and Japan agreed on joint economic activities in the Kuril Islands. In particular, they discussed fisheries, tourism, healthcare and the environment. There was no talk about transport connections between the two countries. However, according to Igor Shuvalov, such a project will be beneficial to both countries.
“This will provide additional opportunity to use our railway infrastructure, and Japan will become a continental power,” - Shuvalov believes.
Meanwhile, the opinion of the First Deputy Prime Minister is not shared by all deputies and experts interviewed by the correspondent IA REGNUM. While some consider such a project an excellent option for attracting foreign investment, others point to its untimeliness and even danger.
Additional investment and Japanese benefit
The construction of the transition between Hokkaido and Sakhalin will help the development of the Far East, the head of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Industry, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship is confident Sergey Zhigarev(LDPR).
“I support this idea, because the Far East needs investment, the Far East must be attractive,” - said Zhigarev.
Joint construction of the transition will be in Japan’s interests - with the help of infrastructure development, the country will be able to ensure its participation in the economy of Sakhalin, Zhigarev is sure.
The Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko Bank also agrees with this point of view. Andrey Lyushin.
“For Japan, this project may be even more important, as it will reduce transportation costs, which means that imported goods, primarily raw materials, will be cheaper. But the prospects for the development of territories in this case will be excellent,” - says Lyushin.
According to him, the bridge construction project is high-profile and has enormous potential, but it is too early to talk about its implementation, since Japan has not yet even agreed to joint construction. In addition, today it is also unclear how costly such construction will be.
Maybe a better port?
As noted by the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov, the construction of the Russian-Japanese bridge will not require large expenditures from the budget, since modern technologies will be used in its construction.
Meanwhile, as a member of the State Duma Committee on Transport and Construction reminds Oleg Nilov(“A Just Russia”), the construction of any bridge is a costly and expensive undertaking, which should be resorted to only if other means of communication and interaction are impossible.
“If we compare transport arteries, sea transportation in serious volumes is considered the most profitable. Building a bridge is expensive, so it’s usually built when there are no other options,” - says Nilov.
According to him, it is quite possible that it is much more profitable and expedient to build a high-quality, modern port, instead of paying for the construction of a new crossing.
“We need to compare what the investment of colossal funds in the construction of a road-railway bridge will yield and how this compares with the alternative construction of a powerful and modern port. Only after comparing investments and income can a decision be made,” Nilov is confident.
Wait 20-30 years
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Industry, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship Valery Gartung(“A Just Russia”) is confident that the construction of the Hokkaido-Sakhalin bridge is at least untimely. According to his calculations, such a project can be undertaken in 20-30 years, when Russia solves the problems of transport communication within the country and develops its economic potential.
“We have more important projects. Our infrastructure in many cities is in a deplorable state: many settlements have no paved roads at all,” - says Hartung.
