From the very beginning of hostilities in Donbass, I wrote and continue to write everywhere that war is not a computer game. Nine lives are not given. Where military operations are taking place, the civilian population has nothing to do. In a combat zone there should only be people with weapons who are ready to die. This is an illusion and a game of “Russian roulette” - the expectation that a shell or mine will not arrive or, if it does, it will not come to your apartment or yard...
Simply, in fact, at the beginning of the fighting, the local civil administration did not provide evacuation. And for people with weapons, it was even more of an extra burden to organize the centralized movement of a huge number of people somewhere deep in the rear. Let's remember the experience of the Great Patriotic War, when hundreds of thousands and millions of people were deported to Siberia, beyond the Urals, to the republics of Central Asia... Entire enterprises with all their personnel were deported... There were endless trains... People themselves fled from the war.
Housing and belongings are not worth the most valuable thing a person has - life. But many, then and now, find an excuse for not leaving, and if they left at first, they later returned. They began to return to the liberated Soviet territories only when the front began to irreversibly move to the west, and not when active hostilities stopped for a while.
To live in a combat zone, you must be aware that this is your independent choice, and not someone’s harsh whim. Those who explain that they cannot leave the combat zone need to understand this. And if people want to move. but they physically cannot, then you should not wait until they come for you and offer you, but show personal initiative and turn to the military-civil administration, fortunately, there is no one, but now it still exists. If she refuses to help, then it’s already a problem for the young republics that they have such leadership and soulless officials.
And Russia has not yet denied any refugees the right to stay on its territory. The only problem is that refugees cannot concentrate in one place on their own whim. This is an additional social burden on the territory. And therefore refugees have to be distributed among regions, again, taking into account individual wishes. Russia is big, it can accept and accommodate everyone.
But everyone decides for themselves what to do.
And the militia will not attack just to push back the front with incredible efforts. This may be due to large losses in manpower and equipment. They will attack only when it is both tactically and strategically advantageous. The militias still have professional military leadership, and not grandmothers on a bench at the entrance. They see everything perfectly, know and understand. And the start of active hostilities is always preceded by intensive artillery preparation. So you shouldn’t hope that everything will stop soon. If one of the sides is preparing to go on the offensive, then the hell of shelling will only intensify. And, if people still have a desire to save not just their housing and belongings, but at least their lives, then they must either leave, leave, run away themselves, or do this with the help of local authorities competent in these matters.
And there is no need to complain, they say, “we are so poor and unfortunate here, we are dying from stray shells and mines, and some scoundrel (most often mentioned, oddly enough, Putin) does not want to give the order to attack, to send militias in hundreds and thousands to certain death just so that we don’t have to leave our homes.” And the fact that the time has not yet come, the tactical situation is not yet conducive to the successful development of the offensive does not bother anyone. It has always been the case that a soldier in a trench and even the commander of his unit have a worse idea of the entire operational-tactical situation than the front commander. And even the military expert Boris Rozhin (aka Colonel Cassad), an authoritative military expert on these issues, has a hard time imagining when the offensive phase might begin and from whose side. Agree, it would still be better if it came from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. After all, as even the biggest amateurs understand, counterattacking is easier than trying to break through the enemy’s defense in depth. In this case, the attackers' losses are always significantly greater. So we have to wait for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to start. But they don’t start and don’t start, but only increase the firepower of the shelling.
By the way, this method of conducting combat operations has a second moral and psychological component that is important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Impressed by the scale of destruction and death of the civilian population, under powerful pressure from this very civilian population, the leadership of the VSN may not be able to stand it and give the order to attack. And here the current Kyiv leadership will have two important trump cards in its hands. Firstly, the advantage of Ukrainian troops defending in well-fortified positions. And, secondly, and no less important, it is quite reasonable to imagine the militias and Russia behind them, led by Putin, in the eyes of the world community as aggressors trying to seize the territory of the sovereign state “Ukraine”. Someone will say that they have already been accused many times, it won’t get any worse. So, excuse me, but we know what the response might be, what the response might be? Of course, the role of a country with aggressive imperial intentions has never made anyone happy. The states, with their policies, get away with a lot. But here the situation is somewhat more complicated.
In addition to the current economic pressures, other steps can and will certainly be taken. And the consequences both for Russia and Donbass, and for all residents of the collapsing Ukraine, awaiting liberation from the current government and nationalist rabble, will be very difficult. Here, both the States, NATO, and our respected “partners” from the European Union will have something to cling to, something to present as an argument in order to greatly increase pressure on Russia, to provide active economic and military assistance to Poroshenko and his clique, to force Russia to get bogged down for a long time in a conflict, to wear it down, exhaust it, or even enter into a direct military conflict.
The destruction of Russia as an active player on the world stage, an economically strong state, returning it to the state of the 90s of the last century, or even falling to a worse position - this is the main goal of inciting conflicts like the memorable Ossetian or the current Ukrainian one. And not at all the return of the breakaway territories to the jurisdiction of the Georgian state and not the bringing by the hand into the friendly European family of Ukraine. Everything was built with far-reaching goals. After the defeat in Ossetia, Operation Ukrainian European Integration followed, which resulted in the collapse of the state and a destructive, bloody civil war. And this is not the last adventure organized by the Americans in the border zone of the former allied Soviet states with the goal of crushing and bleeding Russia.
There are rumors that there is even a plan called the "Anaconda Ring"? The only question is: will the United States now try to create a new source of tension in the post-Soviet space, requiring the involvement of the political, military and economic resources of the Russian Federation, or will it wait for a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict?
Fires are constantly being created, brushwood is being thrown into the smoldering embers. This was the case in Abkhazia in May-June 2014, when rallies of those dissatisfied with the authorities were provoked in Sukhumi, the administration of the president of the republic was seized, and only Russia’s efforts made it possible to put down the fire and extinguish the tension. This was the case in Armenia, when the performances were unambiguously called “electric Maidan.” This can happen in any other place, including even our beloved Belarus. The situation there is very ambiguous, starting from the mood in Belarusian society and ending with the mood, or rather, the tossing of Father Grygoravich, turning like a weather vane, facing either Russia or the West.
And therefore, it is quite obvious that it is still best to wait until the Ukrainian troops concentrated in large numbers on the confrontation line go on the offensive and deliver a crushing blow in return. The artillery barrage will eventually be followed by an offensive.
And whoever, being in the combat zone, is still thinking about whether to stay or leave, must still somehow decide for himself.
In the article Poroshenko fell into the trap of “Minsk-2” or “The Great Stand on the Ugra River” I already expressed my idea that if it were not for the death of the civilian population who remained to hold on to their apartments, houses and property, then there would not have been any special moral reasons for the VSN to go on an active offensive. The state of the economy is such that by winter everything that remains of the economy and social sector will certainly collapse completely.
In these economic conditions, rather than through long propaganda and agitation work, Svidomo will be cured among the majority of the population, which, unfortunately, cannot be overcome even with a blow. People still continue to firmly believe in their bright European future. They are firmly convinced that the only thing stopping them is Russia, which has carried out a treacherous invasion in the Donbass, which, like Crimea, must be returned at all costs to a single space that is in a state of agony and death throes, having lost everything possible even in the very early days. recent past, the state “Ukraine”. These people do not yet understand that this name has remained a purely formal geographical designation of the territory in which, at the very least, they live. And this is one of the main reasons, despite all the cynicalness of its sound, why it would not be worth going into that territory for the time being. Still, it would be worth waiting for these people to realize the full destructiveness of the situation into which they have collectively driven themselves. It would be interesting to see how the most Svidomo will gallop in late autumn and winter, what songs they will sing when the crisis reaches the bottom and they feel the fruits of the “revolution of hydity” on their own skin.
And the militia would have enough shells and cartridges to repel attacks and counter-battery fire.
But Poroshenko and his henchmen will not allow this. Economic collapse means certain death from comrades in the “revolution.” And military operations are a reason to blame all the difficulties on repelling “Russian aggression” and a chance to extend one’s stay in power, to finish the sawing and tearing apart of everything that is left, and a microscopic hope that the next military confrontation will not bring yet another cauldron and final defeat, and some change in the disposition in their favor, and then, lo and behold, towards Minsk-3. It is possible, of course, that they themselves are so naive, or perhaps their overseas curators convince them so firmly of this, forcing them to go on the offensive. It’s only naive Svidomites who don’t understand that the orderer of this whole cruel farce is the US State Department and personally Peace Prize laureate Barack Hussein Obama.
The war will continue very soon and one of the sides will definitely win. This war is civil in essence, but global in its deep meaning that is not immediately visible to everyone.
In conclusion, no offense to Russians and Ukrainians (as well as representatives of other nationalities) - a Jewish joke on this topic...
Righteous Moishe prayed to God all his life and trusted in him. And then one day a flood began in the city where he lived.
Moishe immersed himself in prayers for salvation, and meanwhile the water rose to the middle of the first floor.
His friends sailed past on a boat:
“No,” Moishe answered, God will save me.
Meanwhile, the water reached the middle of the second floor.
A log floated by - Moisha’s acquaintances were on it:
- Sit down, Moishe, we will save you.
“No,” Moishe answered, “God will save me,” and continued his prayers.
Meanwhile, the water rose to the very roof on which Moishe was sitting,
then a helicopter flew up and his comrades lowered a rope ladder down:
“The enemy will be defeated, victory will belong to Novorossiya”
When will Novorossiya go on the offensive? Ukrainian security forces have already almost completely violated the letter of the Minsk agreements. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not hesitate to shell the cities of Novorossiya with heavy artillery and constantly provoke militia troops. Dozens of civilians and soldiers of the LDPR armies are dying, but the troops of Novorossiya do not go on the offensive, limiting themselves to counterattacks. This causes bewilderment and irritation, both among the population and among the militia fighters. A militiaman with the call sign “Kuznets”, who passed through the battle route through Kramatorsk, Snezhnoye, Starobeshevo and Donetsk airport, spoke about when the next active phase of the conflict will begin and Novorossiya will go on the offensive.
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"PolitNavigator": What makes the armed forces of the LDPR today endure provocations from the Ukrainian security forces?
Kuznets: Novorossiya is forced to adhere to the Minsk agreements: Western countries apply double standards and simply do not notice violations on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but if violations follow from the LDPR, then the world community will immediately howl, and its hands will be untied in order to provide military assistance to Ukraine help.
"PolitNavigator": This cannot go on forever - after all, tens and hundreds of civilians are dying, infrastructure is being destroyed...
Kuznets: Civilians have somewhere to run - either to Russia or to the rear, and the fact that they remain in their homes is their choice. As for the militia, they are forced to expect a full-scale attack from the Ukrainian security forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces dug in well in their positions; Novorossiya simply does not have enough forces to easily break through their defenses. The losses will be too high - the Debaltsevo experience has shown how difficult it is to storm a fortified area.
"PolitNavigator": So what to do? Just passively wait until the Ukrainian Armed Forces go on the offensive?
Blacksmith: Most likely, this will be the case. In the end, the “dill” simply have no other choice - they are simply not able to support the army for years, so they will force events. And for now, the DPR leadership can only go for targeted clearing of positions from which Donetsk is being shelled.
“PolitNavigator”: Today, many analysts or people from here who sympathize with Novorossiya accuse the DPR government of almost treason, due to the fact that the Ukrainian security forces have been destroying Donetsk and Gorlovka for almost a year, and the republic allegedly does not want or cannot withdraw the front line further.
Kuznets: All these analysts, as a rule, were in Novorossiya only in the deep rear with humanitarian cargo, and they saw the front line only through binoculars. Therefore, all their opinions are not worth a damn. As for the “natives”, I know one main “native”, thanks to whom the Ukrainian troops almost took Donetsk - this is the so-called Strelkov. It was he who left his positions in Slavyansk and fled all the way to Donetsk, abandoning city after city. If they hadn’t stopped him, he would have run further. And now, when he is far from exploding shells, “Kotych” suddenly became very brave and gives advice and criticizes to everyone. Every shell that exploded in Donetsk is his merit.
"PolitNavigator": Most people think differently...
Blacksmith: Most people know nothing and believe what is imposed on them.
“PolitNavigator”: So what should the population of the LDNR do?
Blacksmith: It's best to leave. In the near future, the shelling will become increasingly heavier. By and large, this is almost Kyiv’s last attempt to defeat Donbass on its own. Then they will have to either give up or simply send cannon fodder to slaughter - they have practically no equipment left. And Western curators will have to make a decision: either “merge” the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Kyiv, or start openly supplying weapons. It may well be that the geopolitical alignment will change significantly this summer. Our job is to wait. We are unlikely to go on the attack, but we will not give up our ground either. In addition, the last time the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive ended with us significantly gaining territory and equipment. I think it will be the same this time.
"PolitNavigator": In general, no one is leaking anyone?
Blacksmith: Forget this word altogether. This well-known alarmist every week in May-June fell into hysterics that everything was lost and we were being “leaked.” But in reality, those who simply have nothing to do here have merged. As for the rest, Novorossiya has gone through a lot, and will go through everything that is necessary for the sake of victory.
21 August 2014, 15:53
The Donbass militia stopped the advance of the Ukrainian security forces in several directions at once and in some areas successfully counterattacked.
Official Kyiv attributes the enemy’s success to reinforcements allegedly arriving from Russia. But experts do not believe in the ability of Kyiv’s opponents to radically reverse the situation on the fronts.
The offensive has been stopped
Militias of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics stopped the advance of government troops on the outskirts of both regional capitals and are currently fighting for Ilovaisk, which was occupied by government troops on August 20. On Wednesday evening, a Ukrainian Air Force Su-25 fighter was shot down over Lugansk, this information was confirmed by the command of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO). On Thursday, the LPR press secretary said Vladimir Inogorodsky, near the village of Georgievka, 15 km south of the center of Lugansk, two Mi-24 combat helicopters were shot down. The Kyiv authorities have not yet confirmed this information.
Ukrainian security officials explain the rebels' successes by the fact that professionals from Russia are fighting on their side. “Fighters of Donbass and the Armed Forces of Ukraine [Ukrainian Armed Forces] fight off tank attacks every day, the fighting does not stop day or night. Against us are the Chechens, career military personnel of the Russian Federation, the Oplot and Vostok gangs,” he wrote on his page in Facebook commander of the volunteer battalion of the National Guard "Donbass" Semyon Semenchenko.
At a meeting with the UN Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on Wednesday in Kyiv the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko stressed that Russian career military personnel are fighting against the Ukrainian army in Donbass. “There is information that the Russian Federation continues to send the latest weapons: tanks, artillery, rocket launchers, the same ones that were used to shoot down the Malaysian Airlines plane,” - The presidential press service reports the contents of the conversation.
In search of the hand of Moscow
On Thursday, Ukrainian media released information that they consider evidence of the Russian military presence in Donbass. The TSN television channel reported with reference to a journalist Leonid Shvets about the participation of Pskov paratroopers in the battles for Lugansk. Ukrainian security forces near Georgievka captured a Russian airborne combat vehicle from the Pskov Airborne Division. In addition to the documents of the Russian serviceman Ilya Maximov In the BMD, a log of orders, evening verification, a log of dismissals, as well as Russian-made dry rations issued in March were found.
The day before, reports appeared in the Ukrainian media about a column of Russian military equipment entering Lugansk, numbering 150 units of military equipment, including tanks and Grad multiple rocket launchers. Commander of the ATO forces in the Lugansk region Igor Voronchenko confirmed this information and stated that he considers this group to be a unit of the Russian Armed Forces. However, then a representative of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Andrey Lysenko citing military intelligence data did not confirm the existence of the column.
For the first time, the Ukrainian authorities announced the transfer of heavy weapons from Russia to Ukrainian territory on August 15. Poroshenko’s words were actually confirmed by the Prime Minister of the DPR the next day Alexander Zakharchenko. He announced the addition of 1,200 soldiers to his army who had completed a four-month training course in Russia. Along with them, 30 tanks and 120 armored vehicles allegedly arrived. These statements were denied by the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov, and in the morning Zakharchenko changed the version: the equipment allegedly was not received from Russia, but was recaptured from the security forces.
OSCE observers stationed at the Russian border checkpoints “Gukovo” and “Donetsk” have never recorded the movement of equipment, although since the start of the mission on July 30 they have seen "many groups of young people (men and women) in military clothing crossing the border in both directions." As the OSCE representative told RBC Natasha Rajakovic, work of 16 observers "strictly limited" to the two border checkpoints so that they can report "solely on what they see or hear at those two checkpoints."
Russian military expert, reserve colonel Victor Murakhovsky considers the news about "Pskov paratroopers" in Ukraine "another element of the information war." He is confident that if Kyiv or its Western allies had real objective technical control data on the transfer of troops, they would be made public. “Significant reconnaissance assets are deployed in this area on the Kyiv side, NATO collects data from AWACS radar tracking aircraft from Poland and Turkey, and the US Navy naval group in the Black Sea,”- he lists. He considers the documents found in the abandoned BMD to prove nothing. He notes, in particular, the passport of an allegedly Russian serviceman: “Soldiers don’t have passports, they use a military ID card instead, and officers have an identity card.”
Waiting for reinforcements
Although NSDC representative Lysenko said on Thursday that "ATO forces continue to actively advance", A "The enemy is suffering considerable losses", he admitted that in some cases government troops went on the defensive. In particular, "ATO forces units defend the settlements of Novosvetlovka and Khryaschevatoye", he stated. The rebels are also shelling the positions of government troops in the area of the village of Zerkalnoe in the southern direction.
Fighting continues in the vicinity of the regional capitals. “Cleansing of the settlements of Illyria, Malonikolaevka, Stanitsa Luganskaya, Yasinovka, Zemlyanki has begun,” - reports the ATO press center. The Voroshilovsky and Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk came under artillery fire. Several private residential buildings were destroyed, but the Donetsk city administration did not report any casualties. According to the Information Resistance group, fighting is also taking place near Ilovaisk, "The tense situation remains in the Saur-Mogila area."
To hold positions, the command of the anti-terrorist operation is transferring reinforcements to the areas of military clashes. The press service of the National Guard reported the reinforcement of the Donbass battalion and volunteer battalions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs near Ilovaisk. “On the approach to the battle site there are heavy weapons: mortars, grenade launchers and anti-tank installations, anti-aircraft systems,”- the message says.
Murakhovsky asks not to overestimate the successes of the militia. “They did not intercept the initiative; rather, the militia managed to hold out, prevent being cut off from the Russian border and preventing communications from being cut,”- says the military expert. The day before, Lysenko announced that the ultimate goal of offensive operations is to separate the Donetsk and Gorlovka enemy groups and stop the “supply of military equipment and fresh forces.” According to him, government troops are trying to isolate Izvarino, Krasnodon, Kolpakovo, Shakhtersk, Krasny Luch and other settlements located along the Seversky Donets River.
To turn the conflict around, the rebels need "another task force", which would act not tactically, but strategically, says Murakhovsky. Supporters of the LPR and DPR have no opportunity to increase it, he is sure.
Statements about the possible transition of Lugansk and Donetsk militias from defense to offense have been heard more than once. At least, many of them expressed such hope. The other day, an expert on foreign and domestic policy of Ukraine spread across the Internet. Rostislava Ishchenko about this theme.
The specialist is confident that “the Kiev regime has practically exhausted its resources,” but the militia is winning in many ways today. “Active actions from it (Kyiv, - Note Ed.) the parties are in the nature of a last desperate attempt to snatch a tactical victory, regardless of losses and possible strategic consequences.<…>Even the pause that Poroshenko tried to take by declaring a truce that never took effect was needed solely for the regrouping of forces and the hasty preparation of reinforcements,” writes Ishchenko.
He further claims that all sorts of amateurs are fighting on the side of Ukraine, that the advantage of the National Guard in technology has become a fiction. And in the militia, according to him, the forces are only growing: the number of fighters is growing, the number of armored vehicles captured from the enemy is becoming more and more.
No offensive. Defense only
However, not everyone agrees with Ishchenko’s arguments. For example, a military observer Vladislav Shurygin believes that the very question of the militia moving from defense to offense is meaningless. “Donetsk and Lugansk simply have nowhere to go on the attack. And in the near future they definitely won’t have such an opportunity,” he said.
Director of the Center for Military Forecasting, Russian military expert Anatoly Tsyganok also doubts the strength of Novorossiya. One thing, he says, is the people's militia, and quite another thing is the Ukrainian army, no matter how badly they speak about it.
“You cannot compare the weapons of the people's militia with the weapons of the National Guard! Look for yourself: in the pictures from their side there are tanks from the times of the Great Patriotic War. Against them are modern tanks of the Ukrainian army. In addition, for an offensive, supporters of federalization need physical training, at least helicopters and an additional reserve of weapons. They have none of this. There is no normal technology. And they are very poorly prepared. They have no weapons, no equipment. This is a big problem for them. If someone somewhere said that supposedly the militias could go on the offensive, it's a bluff. You can't even talk about this. They must only defend themselves - that is their main task,” the military expert said.
True, from his point of view, the militias are defending themselves quite successfully. At the same time, they carry out raids and ambushes. “If in Libya there was a highway war, then in Ukraine there is a war to defend strongholds. But, firstly, Ukraine does not have enough troops to completely encircle the entire militia group. Secondly, on all routes there are only support points. Supporters of the LPR and DPR can capture one, defeat and leave. This option is quite real,” says the expert.
It is probably too early to talk about the possible transition of the militias to the offensive. After all, the problem of defense has not yet been resolved. By the way, tanks from the Second World War are actually used in this matter. Fighters need equipment. More recently, for example, . The combat vehicle completed the task: with its help, the Ukrainian military checkpoint was destroyed. So, maybe Soviet tanks are not so inferior to similar equipment of our time.
