“Excuse me, but did you come for 11/5/17?” — a schoolboy with glasses asked me embarrassedly. Hearing an affirmative answer, he looked around in confusion and asked the main question of the day: “Why are there so few people here?”
In the morning, the area in front of Smolny and the surrounding streets were clogged with police cars and trucks with riot police. The “cosmonauts” looked around boredly. By 12 o’clock, supporters of the leader of the extremist movement “Artpodgotovka” (banned in Russia) Vyacheslav Maltsev were supposed to arrive at Smolny. He had been promising a revolution in Russia for more than two years, and its date had long been known—11/5/17. All this time, activists “were not waiting, but preparing.” And not just an ordinary rally, but a forceful seizure of power and regime change.
A few days before the cherished date, unprecedented activity reigned in opposition chats. The “Maltsevskys” passed the recipe for a Molotov cocktail to each other and discussed the burning of riot police. “Goals: capture of Smolny, the Legislative Assembly and regional television centers (from there you can call people to come out and support the protest).” “You may not be in the forefront, you may not fight, but you must come. Take sandwiches, a first aid kit, tea with you and watch history.” “Whoever does not come has suffered, a coward and a slave.” And everything like that. There were only a few hours left before the start of the “new historical era” promised by Maltsev.
But in fact, less than 100 people came to Smolny. Some of them consisted of schoolchildren who are now ready to support any rallies against the current government. Truckers huddled in their corner. A dozen elderly women nearby loudly condemned the low protest activity. One of them even put on thermal underwear and took extra socks with her in hopes of a revolution.
- It’s just that everyone left for Moscow! Everything happens there!
- All the men didn’t come! And the women came. We are a women's battalion.
The women attracted the attention of journalists, but the presence of cameras did not please them.
“Who did you come here for? For us or for Putin? — the most active “revolutionary” attacked the media representatives.
The police on duty examined each suspicious character. And among the latter, oddly enough, were “prepared” people. The first to be detained was a man who was carrying an entire arsenal in his backpack - an ax, pyrotechnics and gas masks. Two more boys had medical masks and brilliant green with them. The law enforcement officers, of course, also studied opposition chats and discussed among themselves. Even the day before, they read that this green stuff was intended for them.
A strange-looking man was detained with a bottle of either alcohol or a Molotov cocktail. One young man, probably hoping for real revolutionary skirmishes, brought with him several packages of bandages. “Why do you need so much?” - The police were surprised. But no reason was found for sanctions. In total, from Smolny, according to various estimates, from 7 to 11 people were detained.
At a distance from the police, young guys in sportswear with hoods on their heads stood in groups in the square. They watched what was happening from under their brows, but no one dared to take any active action, although it could only be expected from them. These are the guys who, in theory, should form the core of Maltsev’s fans. But in reality there were much fewer of them than on the Internet.
Now you can no longer understand how exaggerated the discussions about the allegedly prepared Molotov cocktails and other weapons were. Even on the eve of the action, the FSB reported on the cleanup. According to the department, on November 3, in the Moscow region, the illegal activities of the clandestine cell of the Artpodgotovka movement were identified and suppressed, “planning to commit actions on November 4-5 in the form of arson of administrative buildings using incendiary mixtures and attacks on police officers.” Searches and detentions of Maltsev’s supporters also took place in other regions. So the protest was decapitated in any case. Maltsev himself has long been hiding from the law abroad.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the promised revolution in St. Petersburg turned out to be even more pitiful than other actions of the democrats. After the coup at Smolny failed, Maltsev’s supporters moved to St. Isaac’s Cathedral. There, riot police and police were already waiting for them, again outnumbering the protesters. And two more wedding processions and a group of teenage girls who were having a meeting with a certain video blogger.
“Let's all hug! I wish you happiness!" — the blogger exclaimed joyfully. The girls took selfies and didn’t even notice that they were in the midst of a potential revolution.
The police rather rudely detained a young man in a “Glory to Rus'” sweatshirt, who refused to take off his balaclava. Another teenager went to the station because he had pepper spray on him. The law enforcement officers hesitantly tried to disperse the small crowd a couple of times, but each time they seemed to give up on all this: they would disperse on their own. An hour later it happened.
Meanwhile, the inhabitants of the chat rooms living in a parallel reality continued to actively write messages. The fact that the revolution had begun was only the first step. There were reports of some “mass arrests” in St. Petersburg. Although in reality they turned out to be massive only in Moscow - more than 260 people were taken to police departments there. The dissatisfied complained that Alexei Navalny was bringing hundreds of times more people onto the streets.
The result was an amazing “revolution 2.0”: no activity in reality, but talk about “rocking paddy wagons,” “holding combat positions,” and “recruiting for a power group” on the Internet.
“11/5/17 failed. Time to prepare for revenge. I encourage all supporters to write to me for further regrouping/coordination. We can’t give up now!” — another anonymous person was already scribbling in the group.
Everyone was waiting for what Maltsev would say about this. Some already thought that he had “merged.” But during the day, the disgraced activist still got in touch with his comrades.
“Nothing happened... Nothing happened in terms of failure. We have taken a step forward. The revolution continues,” he said live on YouTube.
Sofia Mokhova
The year two thousand and seventeen according to the Gregorian calendar has been declared the year of ecology in Russia. But it is unlikely that many citizens of the federation think about this date. But associations easily arise with the centenary of another famous event - the October Bolshevik revolution. Is it possible that the revolution will repeat in 2017? Will the coming year be as full of terrible events as its namesake from the last century? Sociologists, ordinary citizens, forecasters and the press are talking about this. At the beginning of the 20th century, celebrations of the first anniversary of the communist takeover began immediately - in November 2017. The solemn date was celebrated with a parade and a two-day weekend. But in 1991 the government canceled the parade and, for a short time, the communists themselves. And since 1992, the holidays were reduced to one day - November 7, and then replaced completely. More details about how the situation with holidays and weekends will be in the coming year can be found in the article about the year or in other materials on this topic on the website.
Revolution of 2017: what will reliably happen in Russia
- the so-called “Messages to the Communists of the Future” will be opened. The most famous of them is kept in Sevastopol behind a cast lid-table on the wall of a former military electronics plant. The communists of the past sealed a similar message in a capsule located in the stele of the Rostock monument in the city of Penza;
- potential communists - members of the Komsomol youth organization, also left messages to their peers. They plan to remove one of them from the capsule in Ussuriysk. The contents of such capsules are usually “letters to the future”, which were written by ordinary citizens of the Soviet Union, therefore, by reading them, it will be possible to grasp the spirit and expectations of the past era;
- various videos, documentaries and feature films will be shot to coincide with this event;
- members of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will hold their events especially solemnly.
People who wrote messages back in 2017 were confident that at this time the socialist ideas of Marx-Lenin would prevail throughout the world, because they were infallible. They also believed that the 21st century would usher in an era of equal, just, beautiful and infallible communist society. You will soon be able to read about all this in messages from the past. And it will be possible to sum up and analyze the history of the revolution on November 5, 2017, after the weekend in honor of National Unity Day.
Why are they talking about this
In 2004, some Duma deputies initiated the replacement of the old Bolshevik holiday with a new one - National Unity Day. It was proposed to celebrate it on November 4th. It was on this day, back in 1612, that people’s militias liberated the Russian capital from invaders. It was assumed that replacing the holiday date would give new meaning to the November celebrations, recalling the unity of all classes and nationalities for the good of the Fatherland. At the same time, the holiday has revived nationalist tendencies in many cities, which are expressed in characteristic parades and rallies. And some part of the Russian population, apparently out of habit, still considers Unity Day to be somehow connected with the October Revolution.
The very date of the future revolution – November 5, 2017 – arose from a talk show by Russian political commentator Vyacheslav Maltsev. With enviable persistence, he systematically explains to his fans on You Tube his own vision of the situation in Russia. More than one hundred thousand subscribers follow Maltsev’s “Bad News” on the nationalist channel Artpodgotovka. The presenter considers the current head to be the main problem of Russia and calls on everyone to forcefully change power, while recommending that they remain within the framework of the Constitution. The presenter calls the fifth of November not a sacred date, but a deadline by which all the necessary prerequisites, according to his assumptions, will be fully mature. The expected revolution of November 5, 2017 reminds Maltsev of another significant event that happened, albeit in another country - the Guy Fawkes Gunpowder Plot. The interethnic and interreligious difficulties that the Russian Federation is experiencing and the growing nationalist sentiments make possible, if not a global coup, then global unrest on the ground, therefore, it is possible that Maltsev has grounds for such forecasts.
Revolution in Russia in 2017: to be or not to be
Although many smart people, to put it mildly, are dissatisfied with what is happening in their fatherland, they understand that miracles cannot be expected and that every revolution brings with it unrest and mass anarchy. A large part of the country is fascinated by television and feels good in the painted world. The same well-known party wins the elections every time, and it seems that this will always be the case.
Of course, in such conditions, a quick solution seems to be the most optimal. Throw out everyone who governs poorly and install new ones who will govern well. A simple and understandable recipe for many fuels hope for a revolution in November 2017. However, the coup of 1917 was supported by people tired of war and empty promises. Here one cannot count on such support - the current political system receives approval and encouragement precisely from the masses. Any attempt at a coup will most likely encounter silent popular disapproval or popular aggression. Because a coup is instability and a direct threat to an established existence. At the same time, we should not forget that incredible efforts to maintain stability, at any cost, drive problems inside, instead of solving them. This means that discontent is gradually maturing, provoking an explosion and violence.
In fact, it is not so important for people to find the answer to the question: Will there be a revolution in 2017? ? What is much more important is what happens after, what it will lead to. If the nationalists' forecasts come true, then border closures and new privatization laws are likely, as well as inevitable inflation coupled with a shortage of necessary goods. And a person who was raised by a repressive state and who learned to get along with it lives by one principle: not to lose what he has. There are about 45% of such citizens in Russia, according to the director of the Levada Center. At the same time, cynicism, internal aggression and a sense of personal inferiority are growing in society. Frustration of needs results in an increased level of aggression in society. Moreover, this aggression is skillfully redirected by the media to an external enemy. Society as a whole is characterized by apathy, with outbreaks of impotent irritation. And politics is disgusting - after all, the majority do not believe that they have any influence on the decisions of the authorities. Life revolves around the interests of your family and your own needs; The main thing here is to fence off a controlled living space for yourself personally. Anyone can be in power, as long as there is stability and that Russia is respected in the world. As long as the government copes with at least one of these demands, there is no need to worry - no revolution will receive popular approval and support.
Today at noon another revolution began and ended in the country, but most Russians did not notice it
Somewhere there, on the eve of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Great October Revolution, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin is laughing and crying. His body lies in the mausoleum on Red Square, and his soul laughs. Because today at exactly 12, when the chimes were striking on the Kremlin’s Spasskaya Tower, a revolution began in Russia. Few people noticed it, but she was there. It didn’t last long, it ended quickly, but it still happened – read chat rooms and the liberal press. Everything would probably have happened if it weren’t for the arrests of fiery revolutionaries and “the wrong people” once again. In any case, this is the standard version of the assorted unsuccessful shamans of the “Putin regime”
The organizer of today’s “revolution”, Vyacheslav Maltsev, while in Georgia, broadcast on his movement’s video channel on YouTube about how the authorities are afraid of his supporters, having brought columns of military equipment into Moscow, that the people are angry and the media are talking about the “revolution” on all channels. In the chats of protesters of various stripes, in their own little world separate from the rest of the country, there were enthusiastic exclamations about the coming bright future, which the most radical liberals proposed to illuminate with burning tires and Molotov cocktails. In turn, political scientists and experts doubted the mental health and adequacy of the leader of Artpodgotovka, and supporters of another oppositionist, Alexei Navalny, froze in anticipation, having disowned the “Maltsevites” in advance.
Let's not look far for examples. Let's take only Krasnodar. The other day, the coordinator of Navalny’s local headquarters, Miroslav Valkovich, with some irony, answered a question from journalists as follows:
“They often began to ask, like: “Well, when and where is 5/11?” I think you need to ask those who “didn’t wait, but prepared.” They have been preparing for more than a year, but they ask where and when with us! Of course, it’s good that the headquarters is considered the center of the city’s opposition, but the question is in the wrong place. We are the Headquarters of Alexei Navalny, a future candidate for the presidency of Russia. We are not the organizers of November 4, 5 and 6. We really hope that the people who prepared for so long did everything wisely and carefully, and there will be no legal consequences.”
That is, Valkovich clearly distanced the headquarters from the Maltsevskys. Just in case. However, today, out of the dozen “revolutionaries” who came to the building of the regional administration, almost half turned out to be supporters and volunteers of Alexei Navalny, and even an activist of the “Environmental Watch for the North Caucasus.” This is the Krasnodar revolutionary core. It is worth noting, of course, that the main contingent of militant “Maltsev revolutionaries” was detained even earlier, on November 2, also about a dozen people. But the banner of struggle was picked up in the public pages of Alexei Anatolyevich’s supporters, and there were one and a half thousand subscribers there. Many sincerely, but weakly worried about the future “revolution”, called to go to the regional administration at 12, posted calls from the “Maltsevskys” and the leader of Artpodgotovka himself. All in vain. Aleksey’s adherents actually planned their own “revolution” in March 2018, and Maltsev and his few associates were just a rehearsal for it, a test of the Russian authorities “for lice.” The authorities did not become modest and tied the “revolutionaries” gently.
For more than 80% of the country's population who support the president, all these ideas of revolutions are initially not interesting, which wildly infuriates the few liberals. They prefer to explain all this by Russians’ fear of Putin and the victory of the TV over the refrigerator. This is where the initial failure of all these attempts lies to arrange one, two or three more in a country that experienced several revolutions in the 20th century. Liberals cannot understand that both the country and the people are the same, it’s just that the ideas of modern “revolutionaries” are rotten. Those who went through the democratization of the 90s, MMM and the “Bush legs” received a vaccination against all these “revolutions”. And these 80% know the history of their country much better than any “Navalnists” and “Maltsevites” who actually dream of a coup d’etat. There has already been a revolution in Russia, made by liberals - the February Revolution. As a result, after they all quarreled among themselves, the Bolsheviks came to power under the leadership of Lenin. That is why today he is somewhere out there crying and laughing at modern “revolutionaries”.
Expert opinion:
Alexander Topalov– political strategist, head of the Center for Political Research and Technology:
“At the moment, it is absolutely obvious that only the least developed members of the protest movement fell for the provocation of the oppositionist Maltsev. Seriously thinking about the use of force, tires and “sandbags” with an asset of 20 people is a sign of not only political, but also completely medical dementia. Navalny’s supporters, some of whom joined Artpodgotovka, also suffered serious reputational damage today. Thus, one of the chats on Telegram, where the use of force by Artpodgotovka activists is discussed, was created by Navalny’s volunteer, as he himself admits. Savelyev, a member of EcoWatch, was also among those detained. How Navalnists and Rudomakha’s employees plan to launder their reputation from the participation in the action of people who prepared Molotov cocktails at home is not yet clear.”
When in November 2014 I began using the “economic crisis” tag in the Snob news, one of our experts, the head of a large bank, only laughed about it when he learned about it. He said that there is no crisis. The Russian government at that moment also refused to admit that difficult times had come to the country. I saw the opposite: oil was getting cheaper, everything else was getting more expensive, people were saving on food, and what was happening was very reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.
There were many dark events happening in the world that year that I followed closely. And that’s probably why, at the beginning of September, I began to think about leaving Russia, out of harm’s way. At the end of autumn, I flew to Asia for six months, and a few days later, on “Black Tuesday,” experts, officials, and, it seems, all Russian residents in general began to call the crisis a “crisis.”
That same year I thought that in 2017 we would have a revolution. Now it’s difficult to remember whether I read about it in the press, heard about it on the bus or in the company of friends, but this idea was deeply embedded in my head.
Why in 2017? I do not know this. However, the feeling that something is coming in the country has only intensified recently.
Who predicted the revolution in 2017
One of the first, in December 2005, to announce the 2017 revolution was former Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Vladimir Ryzhkov. He gave an interview in which he pessimistically noted that a new revolution will begin in October 2017 - after the oil runs out.
Vladimir Ryzhkov, professor at the Higher School of Economics (in December 2005):
According to the International Energy Agency, we have exactly 12 years of oil left. When the “black gold” runs out, the country will be left penniless. The people will begin to storm the Winter Palace, with the only difference that in October 1917 they wanted to seize the government that was sitting there, and in 2017 they will want to steal the museum’s paintings in order to sell them to foreigners and feed their families.
By that time, the thought of revolution was already disturbing the minds of Russians. According to Yandex.News, the first Russian media material that mentioned both the “revolution” and “2017” was published five months after Ryzhkov’s statement—on February 16, 2006. This was a transcript of the broadcast on Ekho Moskvy, during which the presenter read out a message from a listener named Dmitry: “Accession to the WTO is a planned preparation for the 2017 revolution.”
Over the next six years, the topic of revolution was hardly raised in the media, and they started talking seriously only on the 95th anniversary of the October Revolution. In November 2012, Doctor of Political Sciences Sergei Chernyakhovsky wrote a column for Nakanune.ru entitled “The situations of 1917 and 2017 are very similar,” in which he stated that for the 2017 revolution “there are all the prerequisites.”
The revival began in 2013, when the branch of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in Barnaul held the conference “Revolution 2017: myth or reality.” Local communists believed so much that this was real that on November 7, 2015, the first secretary of the Barnaul city committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Andrei Sartakov, said from the podium: “There will be a revolution in 2017.”
In 2013, the Perm branch of the Lenin Komsomol, a youth political organization, posted on Twitter, a demotivator with Vladimir Lenin, who hid around the corner “waiting for 2017.”
In September 2015, economist Evgeny Gontmakher published an article “Revolution 2017” in Moskovsky Komsomolets, in which he compared the prerequisites for the 1917 revolution with the current state of affairs in the country.
Evgeniy Gontmakher, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (in September 2015):
When compared with autocratic Russia of the 20th century, today provides ample ground for coincidences. For example, there is a rapid lumpenization of the population, which is predetermined by many factors: the low quality of education, the decline of mass culture, the abundance of “bad” (i.e., non-prestigious and low-paid) jobs, the drawing of the most active and advanced people to a few large cities, leaving others There is a critical number of “orphan and wretched” people in populated areas.
At the end of 2015, the former head of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, gave a press conference at which he stated that a revolution in Russia was inevitable (however, he did not name the exact date of its start).
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of Open Russia (in December 2015):
We are dealing with a full-fledged anti-constitutional coup. What's the solution? In the absence of the institution of fair elections and other mechanisms for the legal change of power, the only way to change it is through revolution. Revolution in Russia is inevitable. The remaining reserves and the threat of reprisals only delay its inevitable onset.
The question is how to make the revolution at least relatively peaceful and effective from the point of view of restoring democratic governance of the country. Revolution is a good word. It can and should be peaceful. Making the revolution peaceful is our common task.
When will the 2017 revolution begin?
November 5, 2017 is the date of the start of a new revolution in Russia. At least, this is what former Saratov deputy, nationalist and video blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev, as well as his many supporters who wrote the numbers “5.11.17” on the walls of houses in Russian cities, think.
Who is this anyway? Vyacheslav Maltsev worked as a deputy in the Saratov Regional Duma from 1994 to 2007, participated in the creation of the local United Russia, although he subsequently criticized it more than once. In 2016, he won the Parnassus primaries and almost led to a split within the party after making a statement about “political turmoil.” During the first debate on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Maltsev called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Didn't get into the State Duma.
Maltsev runs a YouTube channel “ Artillery preparation”, where his program “Bad News” is broadcast every week from Monday to Friday. He begins each broadcast with words about how many days are left until the beginning of the “new historical era,” that is, until November 5, 2017. The channel is popular: each episode of “Bad News” has about 80-100 thousand views, more than 100 thousand people subscribe to the account.
Residents of Russia have already begun to protest, but active protests will begin in the spring and summer of 2017, says sociologist Natalya Tikhonova.
Natalya Tikhonova, research professor at the Higher School of Economics (in February 2016):
Protest surges are already underway. But they go for economic reasons, locally. And in principle, the authorities are trying to extinguish them - not to put pressure, but to extinguish them. Because so far the population fully shares the concept that the current situation is to blame, firstly, for the fall in oil prices (which is like the weather or the harvest - bad today, good tomorrow), and, secondly, that we are also They are trying to bend it into an arc after Crimea. And the population, of course, is still ready to make certain sacrifices.
People still buy groceries—they just aren’t buying a new refrigerator right now. Or they decided to wait to change the car. Adaptive mechanisms are well known. For example, a quarter of the population returned to their gardens - at one time they stopped planting potatoes, but now they have started again. Well, they didn’t plant it for only about five years, maybe.
That is, nothing fundamentally new happened in their lives. And therefore, in general, there is no sharp protest now. Another thing is that after two to two and a half years of such self-restraint, household resources begin to be exhausted. Shoes break down, clothes wear out, but there is no money for new ones, the TV is broken, the refrigerator is leaking... In general, something starts to happen that requires additional investments. But there is no money for this. That's when it starts to get really annoying. If we have been experiencing crisis phenomena for about a year, then we have another year and a half left before the population begins to be indignant.
Scenario two. A crisis
Leading European economists doubt that protests could begin in Russia due to a recession, Bloomberg journalists found out in February 2016, who interviewed 27 economists from different countries. Only six of them said that protests in Russia are possible with a probability of 50 percent, the rest estimated the chances of revolution at 30 percent. “The political response to poverty is more likely to be apathy rather than revolution,” Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at the Hamburg Berenberg Bank, said at the time.
There is no revolution in Russia and in the ranking of the main threats of 2017, which is prepared annually by Bloomberg. But it does contain a new global economic crisis, which will certainly hit Russia (this happened in 1998 and 2008). In its pessimistic forecast, the publication predicts a repeat of the Asian crisis of 1997 - markets could fall if Donald Trump starts an economic war with China.
Russian economists and experts are also expecting a global economic crisis, and very soon. The fact is that the world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations, so another decline can be expected before 2019, says economist Vladislav Inozemtsev.
Vladislav Inozemtsev, director of the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Society (in October 2016):
The world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations that occur with fairly clear periodicity. The world is now experiencing its seventh year of sustained economic growth. Whatever supports this growth, it will not last forever: serious slowdowns in the US economy were noted in 1980 and 1982, 1991, 2001 and 2008-2009 (while in 2001 there was still growth, while in other cases there was a recession). Judging by the frequency, a new sharp decline should occur between 2016 and 2019, that is, quite soon. And although the US economy did not suffer very much (in 2009, the worst decline in decades was 3.5 percent), stock markets fell by 40-55 percent, and commodity prices fluctuated even more. A repetition of something similar in 2017-2018 would almost certainly cause irreparable damage to the Russian economy. And what is especially unpleasant is that there is more and more evidence in the world that a crisis is just around the corner.
One of the most prominent private traders in Russia (as RBC puts it) Vasily Oleynik, in turn, believes that in 2017-2018 “something very bad will happen.” And in this situation, according to him, cash will become a reliable asset.
Vasily Oleynik, Itinvest expert (in August 2016):
Something very bad is going to happen in the next two years. When this happens, the most valuable asset will be cash currency. So if you have some kind of safety net, you don’t need to keep it in banks or buy shares. Keep your money in foreign currency, not in euros, but in dollars, francs, and yuan. When disaster strikes, tremendous opportunities open up for you. You just need to manage your cash wisely. Perhaps buy shares that will fall in price to record levels, real estate - whoever has enough for what.
Scenario three. Revolution in our heads
The political situation in Russia will change dramatically in 2017-2018, but not because of the revolution, but thanks to the changes that are already taking place in the mass consciousness of Russians, says the political scientist and one of the most accurate predictors of changes in power (as Gazeta.Ru puts it) ) Valery Solovey.
Valery Solovey, professor at MGIMO (in October 2016):
I don’t believe at all that a bloody revolution will happen in Russia, especially with large-scale apocalyptic consequences like the collapse of the country. Nothing like this will happen.
I am inclined to believe that the political situation in Russia will change dramatically over the next two years. And it seems that changes will begin in 2017. It's not about the magic of numbers, it's not about the fact that this is a centenary - it's just a coincidence. There are some reasons for this forecast.
If we say that everything today is in the hands of the authorities, we must not forget that the government, which has no competitors, necessarily begins to make mistake after mistake. Plus, the general situation is pressing: the country is running out of resources, discontent is growing. It's one thing when you endure it for a year or two. And when they make it clear to you, and you yourself “in your gut” feel that you will have to endure it all your life (20 years of stagnation, what then?), your attitude begins to change.
And you suddenly realize that you have nothing to lose. It turns out that you have already lost everything. So what the hell isn't it - maybe change is better?
Sociologists who engage in qualitative research say that we are on the eve of a radical turn in mass consciousness, which will be very large-scale and deep. And this is a turn away from loyalty to the authorities. We experienced a similar situation at the turn of the 80-90s of the last century, before the collapse of the USSR. Because first revolutions happen in the minds. This is not even the willingness of people to oppose the authorities. This unwillingness to consider it an authority that deserves obedience and respect is what is called a loss of legitimacy.
Scenario four. Nothing
Political scientist and economist Dmitry Travin doubts that a revolution is possible in Russia. In his opinion, the current political situation is not similar to the events of 1917, but rather to the Brezhnev stagnation, but with stores littered with food and with the “ideology of a besieged fortress” in our heads.
Dmitry Travin, professor at the European University (in December 2016):
In connection with the approaching anniversary of the Russian Revolution, in the coming 2017 we increasingly began to look for the features of the fateful 1917. Sometimes they even look for a mystical connection between them, believing that Russia is doomed to convulse precisely in the year 17, and not in any other year.
We will not look for a mystical connection, but if you look at the specific factors that determine social instability, it will be difficult to detect serious similarities between eras. What is common, perhaps, is that the political regimes in both cases contain only elements of democracy, and that a significant part of the Russian elite does not like such half-heartedness.
Today everything is completely different from what it was in 1917. Power is legitimate, although it rests not on divine origin, but on the personal charisma of the national leader. The standard of living is declining, but not at all as rapidly as during the First World War. And we fight small, victorious wars, not crazy global ones that exhaust the participants to the limit.
The current situation in Russia is much more reminiscent of the Brezhnev era. The stability of the regime is maintained in conditions where the standard of living of the population is slowly declining, the elites are dissatisfied with what is happening, even the charisma of the leader is gradually dimming, but nothing happens that would predetermine a social explosion. Brezhnev, as we remember, died calmly in his post, and after him two more elderly general secretaries died in the same post before it was decided to announce perestroika. And it was announced not by old people accustomed to a quiet life, but by representatives of a new generation who, for some reason, strived to build socialism with a human face.
And this despite the fact that, of course, there are plenty of dissatisfied people everywhere. But the distance from discontent, sometimes recorded by mass polls, to a real revolution is enormous. Discontent is nothing more than one of the components of a social explosion. But far from decisive.
It is difficult to say what 2017 will actually be like and what scenario will form its basis. Social tension in society is obviously growing, but I want to believe that this year troubles will still bypass Russia.
On Sunday, November 5, mass arrests of supporters of oppositionist Vyacheslav Maltsev took place in the center of Moscow, who over the past few years has declared that a revolution will occur in Russia on this day. People unrelated to Maltsev were also detained. In total, according to OVD-Info, more than 400 people were detained in Russian cities, of which more than three hundred were detained in Moscow alone. The rain collected everything that is known about the “revolution” that took place on November 5th.
What happened
Oppositionist and leader of the Artpodgotovka movement (banned in Russia) Vyacheslav Maltsev has been saying for the last few years that a revolution should happen in Russia on November 5, 2017. He called on his supporters to take to the central streets of Russian cities on this day. Among the places where the action was held in Moscow were Manezhnaya and Pushkinskaya squares.
As a result, the bulk of people came to Manezhnaya Square, which was soon cordoned off by police and riot police. Law enforcement agencies searched a large number of people, asked to show the contents of their backpacks, after which many people were sent to police buses. According to the latest data, 339 people were detained.
Among them were not only Maltsev’s supporters, but also activists of the “Spring” movement, returning from Adam Smith’s readings, volunteers from Alexei Navalny’s headquarters and other passers-by unrelated to the oppositionist. For example, among those detained were Pokemon Go players who did not plan to participate in the protest.
In addition, several people were detained in St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk, Rostov-on-Don and Perm.
Consequences
Manager of the human rights department of Open Russia Polina Nemirovskaya It’s raining that at the Airport police station detainees are interrogated as witnesses in the case of calls for a terrorist attack (Part 2 of Article 205.2 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) and mass riots (Part 3 of Article 212 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation ).
The detainees are asked if they use the Internet and social networks, if they have credit cards, if they have seen Vyacheslav Maltsev’s videos on the “Artpodgotovka” channel, if they read the Telegram channel “05/11/17” and how they understand the word “revolution” . Investigators are also finding out whether they know Maltsev and the leader of the Nationalist Party, Ivan Beletsky.
Maltsev reaction
Vyacheslav Maltsev himself has not been in Russia for some time. During the events of November 5, he went live several times on his YouTube channel, where he commented on what was happening. In particular, he said that more than three thousand people were detained in Moscow, without specifying where he got this information from. One of his comrades also said that the revolution should not have ended on November 5th.
Maltsev later said that the protests would continue. “The authorities are very scared, and they are trying to take this fear out on people, to take it out on people. They will definitely answer for this. And we will continue today, we will continue tomorrow, we will continue as long as this government holds on to its place,” commented Maltsev summarizes the results of the action on November 5 on his YouTube channel.
He also expressed gratitude to those people who took to the streets. According to him, one could count on the fact that all people would “rise at the same time,” but “there is such a thing as fear.”
What happened before the action
Detentions of Maltsev’s supporters began several days ago. FSB on November 3 about the detention of members of the “secret cell of the Artpodgotovka movement” (an organization recognized as extremist and banned in Russia), who allegedly prepared arson of administrative buildings and attacks on police officers on November 4-5. The department believes that “high-profile extremist actions” were planned to provoke mass unrest in Moscow, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Kazan, Samara, Saratov and Tomsk.
Maltsev on the eve of Dozhd that in total more than a hundred of his supporters were detained. According to him, they are portrayed as “terrible terrorists” in stories about Russia-24. After this, more than 20 searches took place in Moscow and the Moscow region. Electronic media were confiscated from activists, information from which supplemented the evidence base for the prosecution.
Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva / Reuters
