Enemies Russian Federation and simple financial facts
Sergey Naryshkin, so-called. "speaker" of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, one of the two chambers of the so-called. of the Russian "parliament", proclaimed the United States the main enemy of Russia in the program of an article of a forgotten Soviet format - in the press organ of the government of the Russian Federation " Russian newspaper". Too bad Pravda is out of print.
“I think the States will continue to zombify people with their false information, wishful thinking and create more and more reasons to incite anti-Russian sentiment in Europe. They are trying to turn even the UN Security Council into a platform for their propaganda, which has already exceeded all conceivable limits. The Russian veto, in fact, saved the reputation of the Security Council - after all, the decision of such a tribunal would be deliberately false and unjust.”
And then Naryshkin moved on to "facts".
“You ask - what is the ultimate goal of the States? The answer is the same: their external debt is huge, and the ruin of other states is the most familiar method for them. Even the presence in the hands of the United States of a global "printing press" ceases to help. Complete control over NATO, wiretapping and blackmail of the "major league" of the European Union does not save either. For the colonialists of the "model of the XXI century" - all this is already not enough. It is necessary not only to keep the dollar as the only world currency, but also to get closer to the economic wealth of other major powers and regions of the world.”
Firstly, the ungrateful comrade Naryshkin, an officer of the KGB of the USSR, wants to “forget” a recent fact: the United States saved the Russian Federation from starvation, literally, at a time when it was easy to make the Russian Federation just a colony:
http://lenta.ru/russia/1999/09/29/food_aid/
And this salvation took place over not one year, but almost ten years.
Secondly, Comrade Naryshkin, an officer of the KGB of the USSR, embarks on a dance of lies and disinformation - precisely in those areas in which he is strong due to his studies at the Higher School of the KGB of the USSR. "Their external debt is huge, and the ruin of other states is the most familiar method for them."
Why does Naryshkin say this?
Because an obvious lie, mixed up on the topic of the “external enemy” is the Kremlin’s order to cover up its economic traces in an endless string of personal enrichment at the expense of the “electoral mass” of the stupidest suckers on Earth.
The US national debt is indeed large, even on a historical scale, but only in absolute numbers:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S/
After all, the comparative value of the public debt of each country is measured not in absolute, but in relative terms, as a percentage of GDP, and the US GDP is the largest GDP in the world, exceeding Russia's GDP by an order of magnitude, i.e. almost ten (!!!) times. Rather, a little less than 10 times before the devaluation of the ruble, and much more than 10 times after. US GDP is a measure of the highly diversified US economy, which produces $16-17 trillion annually (!) in goods and services that consumers around the world are willing to buy. Russia's GDP is about $1 trillion in oil and gas rent, plus a donut hole.
The US government debt, as a percentage of GDP, is neither large nor critical:
Japan 230.00%
Greece 177.10%
Italy 132.10%
Portugal 130.20%
Ireland 109.70%
Cyprus 107.50%
Belgium 106.50%
United States of America 101.53%
Singapore 99.30%
Spain 97.70%
France 95.00%
Euro Area 91.90%
United Kingdom 89.40%
Canada 86.51%
Iceland 86.40%
Therefore, Naryshkin lies - he lies brazenly, to our faces.
But his lies, and the lies of the Kremlin, do not end there, within the perimeter of this topic.
The total corporate debt of all Russian companies- Approximately 600 billion US dollars. With the dynamics of dollar GDP that we see today, this debt is approaching 100% of Russian GDP.
But that's not all. Let's look at the debts of Russian regions.
In the early 2000s, Putin, together with his organized criminal group, seeing that privatization could not be rolled back, decided to go through the process of “nationalization” of the Russian economy, consolidating in “state hands” all the most valuable assets of Russia. For what? Then, to “privatize” cash flows: he saw the value of assets not in market capitalization, but in who owns the cash flows of these assets. And stupidly pumping these cash flows into the pockets of Putin and his organized criminal group was easier when the assets are "state", or "with majority state participation." A simple Soviet formula: "state asset, then no one's." Report to "no one".
This gave rise to the emergence of a huge class of "state" workers of various calibers and spheres: from the workers of "Uralvagonzavod" to officials of such a number that Russia has not known in its history.
Putin could not allow the development of "entrepreneurial capitalism" in Russia: such capitalism breeds wide sections of the middle class, whose representatives always begin to ask "unnecessary questions" of the authorities, since they are conscious taxpayers. Putin decided to develop another area - the so-called. "state employees" who are completely dependent on the authorities and do not ask any questions. When Putin's position in the ratings staggered, he released the so-called. "presidential decrees" that ordered all Russian regions to raise the salaries of all state employees not lower than the average salary for each region.
Each mayor, governor, and other regional bureaucrats appointed by Putin rushed to “execute” these so-called. “presidential decrees” are literally vying to please Putin and “be in the cage”, in the context of the already impending economic downturn, i.e. under conditions in which they could not afford it. Result: a wave of regional borrowings, the lion's share which was - drum roll! - from Russian commercial banks. From 40% to 45% of such borrowings come from banks. so-called. "presidential decrees" - in debt.
And now - once again the drum roll! - we find out that huge number regions, municipalities, cities... debt is... debt is... debt is... attention - drumroll for the third time! - from 80 to 130 percent of the GDP of the region, municipality, city. That is, on average, higher than state debt USA.
Here is such a lie from the speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, commissioned by the Kremlin.
But that's not all - the scam does not end there.
Now, in such a cut off position from the global financial system, in a state of undeclared hybrid warfare against Ukraine and economic sanctions for it, the Russian banking sector is a living corpse, with its own $200 billion in corporate debt and a complete mismatch of assets and liabilities. He can no longer have on his "books" Russian regional debts of almost bankrupt regions. And these debts are slowly moving from the books of Sberbank and VTB to ... drum roll ... books of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, i.e. "dissolved in the budget."
What is the "Budget of the Russian Federation"?
The fact is that in post-Soviet Russia, not only was a “nation” not formed from the mass of the population. In post-Soviet Russia, there were no taxpayers who would consider the budget of their country as the total amount of taxes they paid. Therefore, when any kind of debts of regions, municipalities and cities go from the books of commercial (mainly state) banks to the books of the Ministry of Finance, these debts are completely nationalized, at the expense of sucker taxpayers who do not consider themselves taxpayers (only for one well-known reason) . Hmmm, and if they do, they don't consider themselves the masters of the country's budget (only for one well-known reason).
What does it mean?
Putin "privatized" company cash flows and taxes, and nationalized the Russian people. The first part of the proposal - the money goes into the pocket of Putin and his organized criminal group, period. The second part of the proposal is that a financial pyramid has been created in which the Russian people pay taxes, some of which also goes into the pockets of Putin and his organized criminal group, and the other part goes to pay for the life of this people, according to the classic scheme of financial pyramids.
For example, a pension fund takes money from those who work today and pays pensions to those who have already retired, in a classic pyramid scheme that will explode long before today's workers are retired. Crimea has been added to this remarkable process since last year, for about 50 billion rubles from the pension fund alone. This, of course, will only hasten the end of this pyramid.
so-called. "presidential decrees" are financed in the same way, and he has already driven almost all regions into debt "for the most not indulge" - debts that will now be nationalized from banks to the budget, at the expense of participants in the scam - taxpayers, these same "state employees" (and Not only).
And so - in the entire budget of our fucking vast motherland, in the budget, which the average Putinoid in no way considers his own, until he was given salaries at Uralvagonzavod according to the accounting sheet.
All this music plays until one of the smart ones (Kudrin? No ...) says that this is a typical financial pyramid, but only giant size, and that it burst, or is about to burst. And it has nothing to do with the US in any way.
But this is a big secret, because otherwise Putin and his organized criminal group will be kirdyk. Therefore, the USA is an enemy, they have a huge debt and they want to seize Natural resources highly spiritual Muscovite Rus'.
But in fact, the enemies of the Russian Federation are Putin and his organized criminal group, including Naryshkin.
That's it, comrade Naryshkin, under-officer of the KGB of the USSR.
The total debts of the Russian regions in current figures amount to two and a half trillion rubles, and if they are not nationalized, then not only many regions will be bankrupt, but also many banks. But the nationalization of debts is directly related to all citizens of Russia: it will be carried out at the expense of all taxpayers.
This means the following: Putin issued "presidential decrees" to increase the salaries of officials and state employees; for this, regions, municipalities and cities borrowed money on commercial terms; now there is nothing to give and the "state" takes on these debts, saving the regions and banks from bankruptcy; taxpayers pay for it. The chain is equal, from the first link to the last: increasing the incomes of officials and state employees for your taxpayers' money.
But that's not all.
There is no money in the budget for this. The country has no money for this. The dollar issuing center is located in the US, not in Russia. It remains only to print rubles. Printing press= new devaluation of the ruble and new inflation, and this is nothing but a hidden tax on the population, and a huge one at that. Outright theft, because this "exercise" lowers purchasing power money in the pocket of every resident of the Russian Federation who earns rubles.
With a falling GDP, the country is increasingly plunging into devaluation and inflation, that is, into stagflation, the way out of which can only be through structural economic reforms carried out precisely by the political leadership of the country. As long as Putin and his organized criminal group are in power, there will be no such reforms.
In this post I will try to explain adequately and without prejudice what is happening in Ukraine.
The post is intended mainly for my Russian friends and people who want to get the most objective picture of what is happening in Ukraine.
What happened
There was Yanukovych and his insatiable family, who robbed Ukraine in a way that had not been robbed since the time of Batu Khan. Even if this is my artistic exaggeration, it is not a big one. The robbery was so strong that the Ukrainians could not stand another year before the presidential elections and rebelled against Yanukovych earlier. This is a popular uprising against a tyrant who has lost all brakes and nothing more. Yes, major world players and Ukrainian oligarchs are behind this uprising, they will try to get their own benefits from this, that’s why they are players, but anyone who thinks that Maidan has gathered for money is a madman.
Maidan and Euromaidan
Maidan for Europe ended on November 30th. Everything that happened later, not for Europe and not for same-sex marriages, was an uprising against a tyrant who got everyone with his greed and stupidity. Therefore, those who continue to conduct propaganda against the European Union online - calm down. In Ukraine, just like you, they know the price of Europe.
The logic of the people who gathered at the Euromaidan
The logic was simple. Yanukovych is a complete asshole, but let him sign an agreement with Europe. In a year we will re-elect him, and the contract will work.
After the bloody and unparalleled cruelty of the dispersal of the Euromaidan on November 30, where mostly pro-European students gathered, another Maidan gathered, which was attended by adult uncles and aunts with the specific intention of throwing Yanukovych out for lawlessness.
This is what lies on the surface and can be easily checked, now let's move on to what is left behind the scenes.
USA and EU
During the protests, the United States and the European Union did everything to keep Yanukovych as president of Ukraine until 2015. It was they who, through the Ukrainian opposition, held back the Maidan in every possible way from radical actions, the storming of the office of the President and his residence Mezhyhirya.
Why didn't they want Yanukovych's resignation? Mainly because they were afraid of revolutionary chaos. Most likely there were some secret agreements with Putin. And yet, Western politicians did not want to take responsibility for the new Ukrainian government. Yes, oddly enough for our habitats, there are still politicians in the world who are afraid of responsibility.
V.V. Putin
2 sharpers took part in the game around Ukraine. Yanukovych - he thought he was the most cunning cheat and Putin, who pretended to think that Yanukovych was the most cunning cheat.
Putin played for Yanukovych. He played for him not out of great love, but because there is no one else in Ukraine to play for Putin. Yes, Yanukovych is a very expensive political prostitute, but Putin has no one else to choose from. Putin has no other partners in Ukraine.
And all because the cunning urka Yanukovych (to make it clear what kind of character he is, I will only say that his two legendary prison walkers are absolute truth, and his camp nickname is Ham) sent the main sparring partner Vladimir Vladimirovich to prison. The name of the partner, or rather partner Yulia. Yanukovych isolated Yulia and in such a simple way remained the only one with whom Putin could conduct dark gas and not only gas deals in Ukraine.
In December 2013, in the midst of protests that were already sweeping his power, Putin promised Yanukovych an unprecedented $15 billion loan. To understand the importance of the moment - Putin gives out to a swindler who has no place to put stamps - 15 billion dollars!!!
The only thing Yanukovych had to do in exchange for a loan was to disperse the Maidan and join the Customs Union. When it comes to dispersal, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of those killed. However, after Beslan, this is unlikely to confuse Putin in any way. Specialists from the FSB are hastily arriving in Kyiv and preparations are underway for an operation to disperse the Maidan.
On January 16, 2014, specialists from the FSB push through the Ukrainian parliament laws that are almost exactly the same as those adopted in Russia. A ban on rallies and demonstrations, criminal liability for attempts to overthrow the government and everything else in the same vein.
But the Moscow luminaries again did not take into account the fact that Ukrainians are not Russians. And already on January 19, the Ukrainians showed the Moscow Chekists a master class on Hrushevsky Street. After the adoption of laws restricting their rights, the Russians did nothing, the Ukrainians responded with Molotov cocktails to Grushevsky and the seizure of regional administrations.
For the sake of truth, it must be said that the Moscow Chekists acted in conjunction with the Donetsk bandits, who are the true owners of the Party of Regions. Bandits is a literal term, not the opinion of the author of the article.
The further course of the development of the event is known to all - the bloody confrontation on the Maidan on February 19 and the flight of Yanukovych.
About the victory of the Maidan
Globally, I would formulate the goal of the Maidan as follows: The state serves the people, not the people serve the state!
Crimea
Many are now wondering what kind of fly bitten Putin and why he started a military adventure in the Crimea. I will not comment on the version about fascists and Bandera who are going to kill Crimeans and all Russian-speaking people. This is complete nonsense, and I am writing this post for people who have everything in order with their heads and who do not fall for such nonsense.
What does Mr Putin want?
To begin with, a small lyrical digression. Putin is a typical paranoid. It is quite correct to compare him with Hitler. I think that Putin is somewhat flattered by such a comparison. There are several important details in the comparison between Putin and Hitler. The Germans created the Russian Empire and made it an empire proper. The Russians in this empire were in the position of slaves. It is believed that they are in the same position now, but this is a separate issue. Putin is a typical communist product. There is no significant difference between Nazism and communism - their essence and nature are the same.
German Nazism is already in the past, but Russian communism is not yet. All statements of Putin's propaganda are pure water plagiarism from Nazi speeches. The posts of teenagers intoxicated by Putin's propaganda are not much different from what German teenagers said during the Nazi era. German suckers cursed the British, Putin's teenagers curse Americans. Everything is primitive and uninteresting, that there is not even a desire to argue with them, and we will return to the hero of Alina's girlish dreams.
So what does Putin want?
1. Prevent Maidan in Russia
2. Destroy Ukraine
If Putin can solve these problems, he gets 2 more super bonuses:
1. Continue his absolute power for another 10 years
2. Return Crimea to Russia and become national hero for decades, maybe even centuries. Due to the catastrophic shortage of real heroes in Russia, I do not exclude the option that even for millennia, but now this is not so important.
As you can see, in order to solve these problems, he needs to bring Ukraine to its knees. And you need to act immediately.
Why Putin needs to hurry:
1. The West announced the provision of huge financial assistance to Ukraine. We are talking about the amount of about 40 billion dollars. If Ukraine receives this money, the West will never allow Putin to bring here not only troops, but even speak loudly in the direction of Ukraine. No one will allow to tear apart the one who owes a lot of money.
2. There are no pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. The only exception is Crimea. And as soon as the revolutionary government, as a result of the elections, becomes completely legitimate and takes the situation under control, it will be pointless to send troops. It will be stupid aggression of the bull, but with the first point of an inadequate bull.
Putin's number one task is to unleash a civil war in Ukraine
The action plan is simple as a shovel. Nothing new. Everything that Hitler and the USSR used in Finland, the Sudetes, Austria, the Baltic States, Poland, Afghanistan.
Why does Putin need a civil war in Ukraine:
1. Show what Maidan and revolution lead to
2. To show that Ukrainians cannot govern their state, so that the West will wash its hands and turn a blind eye to an operation similar to the Chechen one
3. Bring the situation to the boiling point when the people of Ukraine themselves will ask them for military assistance. Simply put, kill until they ask for protection from their own killers.
Here is such a simple, unpretentious scheme in a typical KGB style. Everything is as taught in the KGB school. We unleash a war and start fighting loudly for peace.
This is not a direct military invasion. If they were going to make an invasion, they would not hide their faces and would not take off their chevrons. The task is different - to provoke a civil war in Ukraine.
At first, the plan didn't work. The reason is that the Ukrainians simply did not want to kill each other for such ... as Yanukovych. Ukrainians have different attitudes towards the Maidan, but everyone hates Yanukovych equally. Both in the East and in the West of Ukraine. In eastern Ukraine, Yanukovych still has voters who believe him. But no one wants to start a war over Yanukovych. Even Berkut, disgraced in full, despises him.
How Maidan threatens Putin
To answer this question, you need to understand what the Ukrainian Maidan is.
It is wrong to think that Maidan is a place where people dissatisfied with the authorities gather in Kyiv. Maidan, as a gathering place for the dissatisfied, Putin is not afraid. He is afraid of Maidan as an information virus. Maidan, which is in the minds of people. As soon as people understand that any government can be overthrown if they don't like it, Putin will be finished. And not only to Putin, but in general to the entire Putin system in Russia.
And do not flatter yourself with the fact that not all the people are on the Maidan. Don't fall for these cheap information tricks. The Maidan is so terrible for Putin and his camarilla that even 1 percent taking to the streets is capable of bringing down the entire system of power. Not just Putin, whom the Chekists will find someone to replace, he is not a messiah at all, but a SYSTEM. The system with which they receive wild corruption rent in Russia.
What we have in Ukraine today
Crimea
Local pro-Russian patriots are a thieving herd, unable even to arrange a decent provocation. In 20 years of the Kremlin's generous multimillion-dollar funding, they have not been able to assemble even one detachment of attack aircraft. Putin had to shamefully dress up his paratroopers and declare them Crimean self-defense units.
Putin annexed Crimea. The first thing I would do in his place would be to drown the entire leadership of the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet in the sea. All to one. When there was a firm power in Ukraine, these nonentities sat in holes and were silent, and these ran in only when the elders allowed. In general, if Putin does not drown them, the Crimea will be destroyed. This company does nothing but steal.
The military of Ukraine did not repeat the mistakes of Saakashvili and immediately respond with a military strike to aggression. Instead of fire, the new Ukrainian government declared itself a victim, and for two weeks the whole world watched as Russian warriors staged a clowning in the Crimea, and Putin looks like an idiot in front of the whole world. Already recalled 3 ambassadors from Russia (USA, Canada and Britain)!
As a result, disguised Russian paratroopers are rushing around the Crimea and it seems that they themselves have already begun to go crazy from the schizoid war. A little more, and the guys could start shooting those who dragged them into this idiotic adventure.
Allegedly pro-Russian Southeast
In Russia, many believe that the South-East is asleep and sees itself as part of Russia. I myself was born in Luhansk, so I have the information to speak in essence, and not to promote what I personally like.
Very powerful FIGs have formed in the South-East of Ukraine, who like everything in Ukraine, who do not want any Russia, and even more so do not want any Putin.
For no Russian language, birches, balalaikas and St. George ribbons they will not go to Russia. Even if Putin will give them free gas, they won't go. If they are offered the choice to live with Bandera or with Putin, they will choose Bandera.
The main reason why the South-East of Ukraine will not go to Russia:
- In Ukraine, the owners of the Ukrainian South-East are the complete masters of life. In Russia, the Chekists are the masters of life. And none of the Ukrainian oligarchs will ever in their right mind and in their sober memory want to submit to Putin, Sechin, Surkov or anyone else. In Ukraine, oligarchs appoint presidents, deputies and ministers. And they will never join any Russia. Because in Ukraine they are all, and in Russia they are Putin's servants. Nobody wants to be a servant, everyone wants to be a master.
Since there were no people willing to start a civil war for joining Russia among the elite and residents of the South-East, the Moscow Chekists had to bring those from Russia. Brigades of mercenaries of about 2,000 people arrived in Lugansk and Kharkiv, and they staged pogroms, provocations and assaults on regional administrations. In Kharkov, these scumbags killed two people.
At first, the police were inactive, because after the Maidan they are generally afraid to get into political squabbles. And some of the cops are in the direct service of the FSB.
On this topic, the South-East of Ukraine, I consider it closed. Yes, there are people who want to go to Russia. But wanting and being able are two different things. We are talking about those who can.
This Russian Nazi (third from the bottom) and the self-proclaimed puting “governor of the Donetsk region” has already been arrested and is giving evidence, his shoulders are hiding
If Putin wants to annex this territory to Russia, there is only one way, a military invasion. There is no support among the people there and never will be.
Central and Western Ukraine
The rest of Ukraine is shocked to say the least by Putin's actions. The issue of joining the Customs Union is closed once and for all. The issue of joining NATO has been resolved. The issue of introducing visas and establishing a real, and not fake, border with Russia has been resolved.
And most importantly, the question is closed civilization choice Ukraine. And this is all in a few days of Putin's maneuvers in the Crimea. Putin should be given the title of Hero of Ukraine. He did in a few days what all Ukrainian politicians taken together could not do in 20 years of the new Ukrainian era of independence. Putin united Ukraine. He united against Russia and in favor of his sworn competitors from Europe and the USA, but united the same. I wonder who this guy works for?
Conclusions for Ukraine
Now in Ukraine, a lot of people are outraged by Putin's cunning and cruelty. I am also indignant, Putin is a scoundrel and a criminal. But I want to say something else.
I would like to say that Ukraine itself is to blame for what happened. Blame the elite and blame the people. They are to blame for the fact that for 20 years they did not take care of their country, did not create a normal army, normal police, honest courts and did not choose a smart parliament. Although there were already many elections and there was someone to choose from.
If Ukraine is a successful country, it will not be afraid of any separatism. You can hold at least a hundred referendums in any region and people will say no to separatism.
Putin cannot invade Poland, the Czech Republic or Lithuania. But for some reason Putin may invade Ukraine. You can only invade the living space of a weakling. And aggressors like Putin know this.
The conclusion from these events is obvious to me - we need to create a normal country. Our enemies are our teachers. Putin showed all Ukrainians what can happen if, instead of creating a strong state and a strong nation, we engage in nonsense. Play games with the devil. And Putin is the servant of the devil.
All tricks with him must be stopped once and for all. Gas should cost as much as it costs. Buying and selling in a simple and understandable way for everyone. Ideally, the price of gas should be linked to the price of oil. Then there will be no such corrupt dances around gas. Since they are not around the supply of Russian oil to Ukraine. It's expensive to buy gas in Russia - buy from Russian Gazprom.
Ukraine must stop throwing between Europe and Asia. Join NATO and become an associate member of the European Union. I really hope that the new generation of Ukrainian politicians will understand and implement these simple truths.
Another scenario of the war for the Crimea
Now everyone compares the events in the Crimea with 38-39 years and the annexations of Hitler. I invite you, friends, to compare the situation in Crimea with other, happier scenarios.
Now many people are comparing Putin to Hitler and there is a rational grain in this, but I propose to compare him with Saddam Hussein. With Hussain of 1991. Below are my thoughts on this.
Everything goes to the fact that Putin will not leave the Crimea. Even under the strongest international pressure and sanctions. And the character is not the same, and he cannot leave. Behind Moscow, which will not understand and will not forgive. Because he does not believe in tears, because the economic situation is bad, because he loves only winners. There are many reasons why Putin got into this adventure and why he cannot retreat, I think that there are reasons that no one except Putin knows about.
How can the situation develop if Putin does not leave in an amicable way. In this case, events can go according to two scenarios. Scenario one - Putin will limit himself to Crimea, scenario two - Putin will go further. His goal is the entire South-East of Ukraine, access to Transnistria and, as a super prize of the whole adventure, Kyiv. The goal is certainly tempting, but who will allow him?
If Putin moves further in Ukraine, an international coalition will inevitably begin to form. It’s not a fact that the Americans really want this, but they will have to. In addition to the United States, the coalition may include Ukraine, Turkey, the Baltic countries, Poland, and the United Kingdom. These countries have the clearest reasons for joining such a coalition.
I don't think the US will go after Putin and invade Russia. They have no reason to do this for two reasons. The first reason is that they need Putin as a counterbalance to China, the second reason is that Putin will be finished off by his own citizens. After a shameful defeat, he is unlikely to enjoy any serious support from his fellow citizens and will most likely simply be swept away.
Remove Putin will prerequisite the return of the Russian elite to the civilized world and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. And there will be a very high probability that Putin can be physically eliminated, because if Putin gets into the Hague International Tribunal, there is a possibility that too confidential information will be disclosed, and no one needs it.
Nuclear weapons are certainly a serious threat, but the likelihood of their use is extremely small, since both sides are well aware of the consequences of such a step. Well, do not forget that the United States has a fourfold nuclear superiority over Russia.
Now for the timing. Preparation of such an operation can take from 3 months to six months, and maybe more. All this time, negotiations will be going on, a coalition will be formed, and the West will look for options to reduce its dependence on Russian energy carriers.
UN sanctions at the beginning military operation it is not necessary to receive, since most likely there will be a direct appeal from Ukraine for military assistance.
This is one of the options possible development events.
Alexey ZAVODYUK (Web developer, programmer, musician, blogger, social activist)
At the very end of spring, a terrible natural disaster struck Moscow, which the inhabitants of the capital are unlikely to forget in the next few decades.
On May 29, squally winds knocked down several thousand trees and caused the death of eleven people.
Photo: instagram.com / allexicher
The hurricane damaged 140 apartment buildings and 1,500 cars.
Photo: twitter.com
As it turned out later, when everyone recovered a little, the May rampant bad weather became the most cruel and destructive natural disaster in Moscow in more than a hundred years - only the tornado of 1904 was worse.
Before the Russians had time to recover from the Moscow storm, the hurricane hit a number of other regions of the country. Just a week later, on June 6 in: due to heavy rain, they overflowed the banks of the river, flooded the streets and destroyed roads and bridges. At the same time, a large hail fell in the Trans-Baikal Territory, and in the Komi Republic, melt water and heavy rain simply washed away the roads from the face of the region.
Photo: twitter.com
The worst thing is that weather forecasters promise that this is only the beginning of disasters. Hurricanes are forecast to hit the entire Central Russia. At the beginning of summer, on June 2, St. Petersburg residents, already accustomed to bad weather, suffered another stress: in the afternoon the temperature dropped to 4 degrees, and hail fell from the sky. Such cold weather in the northern capital was in last time only in 1930. And then, suddenly, after such an "extreme" the thermometer jumped in St. Petersburg right up to +20.
Photo: flickr.com
While the Russians are trying to hide from the ice hail, the Japanese are dying from the wild heat. According to Japanese media reports, over the past week, more than a thousand Japanese citizens ended up in the hospital with the same diagnosis - heatstroke. It has been hot in the Land of the Rising Sun for several weeks now: thermometers show well over 40 degrees. After such an "inferno", employees of the fire service of Japan tell reporters, seventeen people will remain in the hospital for long-term treatment.
« The earth will fly into the heavenly axis! »
So what is really going on in the world? Global warming or cooling? Or is it just the agony of a mad planet that cannot get rid of the “plague” of humanity? In recent decades, the theory of global warming has been the most widespread. It seems to be unconditionally confirmed by the fact that glaciers are melting at a tremendous speed in the world. They are even called the “litmus test” of climate change: after all, we do not notice small fluctuations in the average annual temperature, but the volume of melted ice caps can be easily measured and even simply seen with the naked eye.
According to the forecasts of supporters of the theory of global warming, in the next 80 years, 90% of the glaciers in the European Alps may disappear. In addition, due to the melting of the Arctic ice, the level of the world's seas may also rise significantly. And this is fraught with flooding of some countries and serious climate change on the planet.
Photo: flickr.com
Researchers see the cause of global warming in human activities. They point out that carbon dioxide, methane and other by-products of human agricultural and industrial activities create a greenhouse effect, due to which the temperature on the planet rises, and ice flows into the ocean in streams.
"The winter is coming!"
At the same time, now there are more and more supporters of the theory of global cooling. The fact that we are waiting for the cold in the near future, and not excessive anthropogenic heat, is proved by scientists from the British University of Northumbria.
Global cooling, according to their version, will come as a result of the impact on the Earth's climate of external, and not internal factors. The reason will be a decrease in the activity of our luminary - the Sun. British scientists, using mathematical calculations, modeled the processes occurring on the Sun and made a forecast for the coming years.
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According to the predictions of scientists, in 2022 a serious drop in temperature awaits us. At this time, the Earth will move away from its star to the maximum distance, which will lead to a cooling. In five years, Northumbria University scientists say, our planet will enter the Maunder Minimum, and earthlings will have to stock up on down jackets and heaters in full.
The last time the decline in temperature of such a level as predicted by British researchers was observed in Europe in the 17th century. The most interesting thing is that this theory does not at all contradict the latest observations of meteorologists: its supporters attribute the general increase in temperature and the melting of glaciers to the fact that earlier the Earth was at a minimum distance from the Sun.
Photo: flickr.com
The fact that humanity does not have such a strong influence on the global climate is also very appealing to the controversial new US leader Donald Trump. In early summer, he announced his country's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. This agreement imposes restrictions on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by them into the atmosphere on the countries that signed it. Trump said that this agreement is holding back the growth of industry in the States, and this, in turn, is taking away jobs from the people. But if the British scientists are right, then the US leader has nothing to worry about - the "Maunder minimum" can level the damage that the policy of the industrial magnate can cause to the planet.
When the planet is torn apart
Interestingly, the battle between the supporters of global warming and global cooling can easily end in an equally global draw. There is a theory according to which periods of excessive heat are replaced by phases of cold in waves. This idea is promoted by the Russian scientist, head of the department of the Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute Nikolai Zavalishin.
According to the meteorologist, short periods of global increase and decrease in temperature have happened before. In general, they are cyclical. As the scientist noted, each such cycle includes one decade of rapid global warming, followed by 40 to 50 years of cooling.
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Studies conducted by a Siberian meteorologist show that the past two years - 2015 and 2016 - were the warmest in the history of meteorological observations. In the next five to six years, warming should continue, the scientist believes. The average air temperature, as a result, will increase by 1.1 degrees.
But soon, says Nikolai Zavalishin, the warming should end. Here the Siberian is in solidarity with the British: a phase of global cooling is coming. So, according to the Siberian theory, we still have an endless winter ahead of us.
Global warming is a myth
While most scientists place the blame for climate change on humanity, a researcher from the Siberian Institute believes that human activity does not bother the planet too much. Cycles of moderate warming and cooling, according to this version, replace each other regardless of human activity, the growth of agriculture and the scope of industry. At the same time, fluctuations in the average temperature on the planet are closely related to the earth's albedo - the reflectivity of our planet.
Photo: flickr.com
The fact is that we get all the energy, in fact, from one main source - from the Sun. However, part of this energy is reflected from the earth's surface and goes into space irrevocably. The other part is absorbed and provides all life on Earth with a happy and productive life.
But different earth's surfaces absorb and reflect light in different ways. Pure snow is able to kick back into space up to 95% of solar radiation, but fat black earth absorbs the same amount.
The more snow and glaciers on the planet, the more sunlight is reflected. Now the glaciers on Earth are in a phase of active melting. However, according to Zavalishin's theory, there is no need to worry about them - when a half-century period of cooling sets in, the balance will be restored.
Who among the scientists is still worth believing? There are quite a few versions of the development of events. Some researchers even promise that in thirty years, in 2047, humanity is waiting for an apocalypse, the cause of which will be unprecedented activity of the Sun. So far, we have only one way to verify this statement - personally live and see.
Margarita Zvyagintseva
Intellectuals write:
Over the past decades, the political elites of the Western world have confidently led their countries towards socialism, and over the past 8 years this process has not only gained serious speed, but also entered the border zone when changes in countries became clearly visible to everyone, and citizens of the Western world realized what was really happening. and where it will lead. Moreover, in practice it turned out that these political elites are not building socialism in their countries, but are actually building an international socialist international - called Globalization.
But in fact, everything is somewhat different.
The political elites of the Western world cannot lead the people somewhere and build something on a global scale, because they are not a strong-willed subject. And in general, what are the "political elites of the Western world"? Sick Clinton, over which the whole world laughs? Obama, about whom every Russian or Iranian schoolchild knows that he unleashes wars and wreaks havoc? Are the leaders of the American mainstream media who are dividing American society leading the US into civil war and collapse?
If there were some objective social force in the West that wanted global liberal socialism, it would act in a completely different way and would do completely different things than what has been done for the last 10 years.
First, it would be engaged in raising the cultural and educational level of Western society. I would be engaged in the creation and cultivation, primarily among young people, of a new supranational global culture, including new principles of relations, mass culture, etc. I would try to turn the Western world into a world role model - I would create a brightly attractive image of the West, history success, positive associations, etc. That is, it would make a certain city on a hill out of the West, to which the whole world should orient itself.
But in practice, we see the opposite: the media only talks about the problems of the United States and Europe, about the failures and failures of Western policy. The West is presented throughout the rest of the world as a garbage dump teeming with aggressive degenerates and pederasts. In the Western countries themselves, the media are engaged exclusively in setting the people against each other, greed for mass madness and civil war, chaos and confusion. American politicians and European bureaucrats act like idiotic clowns and morons. Against this background, Putin's Russia, Iran, China and other countries with a traditional ideology look like locomotives of Culture and Progress, and Putin looks like the ideal of a strategic thinking world leader, strong and wise, showing the people the way to a brighter future.
Why is this happening?
Yes, because the pseudo-intellectuals decided for some reason that in the West there is some kind of group of people who decide something global. But in fact, the world is ruled not by some "elites" or "power groups", but by social classes - read the classics. Classes are ruling and oppressed. In our time of information globalization ruling class- this is not just a collection of all the owners of certain resources, but partly their collective mind, which has its own will.
So, their will is that the Western liberal-tolerant politically correct society must be destroyed, so much so that future generations in no country in the world will ever have the idea of reviving it. Technological progress and the future of mankind must inherit traditional social relations with the primacy of the biological basis, in which alpha males are always the power, pederasts are the social bottom and outcasts. In the conditions of the information society, when everyone knows everything, this basic biological fact cannot be hidden in any way - it will become the basis of the global ideology of the future.
Cartel wars in Mexico. Despite (and often because of) all social media and Internet news, people today tend to have a distorted view of the world around them. Quite often, people think that things are worse than they really are, or they focus on historically insignificant events (for example, on presidential elections). But there are actually much more important things in the world that are happening right now.
1. Desertification
Note: desertification. Many of the world's deserts are growing in size every year. For example, since 1900, the Sahara desert has expanded southward by 250 km, and its territory has increased by almost 6,000 square kilometers. 2. Flynn effect
Notice the Flynn effect. Scientists have no idea why this is happening. But the IQ of people is growing at an average of 3 points per year. 3. Cancer rates are down
Note: The incidence of cancer is declining. Over the past 20 years, the average number of cancer cases has decreased by 20%. Moreover, the pace continues to fall. 4 Mexican Cartel Wars
Note: Mexican cartel wars. Usually, the wars of drug lords are shown in films. At the same time, few people know that they continue to this day. Since 2000, more than 150,000 Mexicans have died due to clashes between drug cartels. 5 Deadly Qatari stadiums
Pay attention: deadly Qatari stadiums. During the construction of these stadiums, more than 1,000 people have already died. This data is usually not printed anywhere because many of these workers are "immigrants" from Asia. In fact, several foreign journalists who published the news were even arrested. 6. Blood business
Pay attention: blood business. It just sounds crazy, but it's a fact. People are shackled as slaves and "milked" their blood. This has become a major problem in poorer countries such as India. One particularly famous case became known as the "blood factory" thanks to the Indian media. A farmer named Papu Yadho kept many slaves on his plantation and bled them twice a week for 2 years. Unfortunately, this type of black market thrives in poverty-stricken countries where hospitals are overwhelmed. 7. Bees
Note: bees. They are dying. Maybe not as fast as the funds claim. mass media, but the number of bees is still declining at an alarming rate. 8. Antibiotics stop working
Note: Antibiotics no longer work. Antibiotics are often used in excess (for example, in the case of livestock). Therefore, bacteria gradually become resistant to drugs. 9. Fake
Pay attention: front persons on the Internet. Many of the comments people read on news websites, social media platforms, and forums are completely fictional. They are written by specially hired people who are paid for it. 10. Self-learning machines
Please note: self-learning machines. They are evolving faster than anyone expected. Computers are actually capable of learning and reprogramming themselves. Self-learning "artificial intelligence" Google has already easily beaten the world champion in "go". This has not been expected for at least 100 years. Go is the most complex game ever created by man. It is much more difficult than chess, and even a computer has not yet been able to calculate all the possibilities.) 11. Babies design
Notice: Babies design. Since Asian countries such as China and India have a much easier attitude towards genetic modification and gene editing, they are likely to start using CRISPR to create "designer" babies. This means that China could potentially have "improved people" in the near future. This does not bode well for the West in terms of competition. 12. Refugees
Pay attention: refugees. In fact, there are more refugees today than at any time in history. In Syria alone, almost 4 million people were either killed or fled the country. This is one fifth of the population. 13. Slavery
Note: slavery. There were about 30 million slaves in the world in 2016. This is more than at any other time in human history. 14. Coltan mining
Note: Coltan mining. Most phones require a metal called coltan, and the largest supply of coltan comes from mines on the Rwandan border. Unfortunately, slavery thrives in many of these mines. 15. Self-driving cars
Pay attention: unmanned vehicles. They are ready to massively reduce the number of road traffic deaths. And similar cars have already traveled hundreds of thousands of kilometers.
