Foresight is a system of methods for expert assessment of strategic directions of socio-economic and innovative development, identifying technological breakthroughs that can have an impact on the economy and society in the medium and long term.
The basis for assessing future options is expert assessments. The Foresight methodology incorporates dozens of traditional and fairly new expert methods. At the same time, they are constantly being improved, techniques and procedures are being developed, which ensures an increase in the validity of forecasting the prospects for scientific, technical and socio-economic development. The main vector of development of the methodology is aimed at a more active and targeted use of the knowledge of experts participating in projects. Typically, each foresight project uses a combination various methods, including expert panels, Delphi (surveys of experts in two stages), SWOT analysis, brainstorming, scenario building, technological road maps, relevance trees, mutual influence analysis, etc. To take into account all possible options and get a complete picture, we involve, usually a significant number of experts. Thus, in the Japanese long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, carried out every five years, more than 2 thousand experts participate, representing all the most important areas of development of science, technology and engineering, and more than 10 thousand experts participated in the latest Korean project.
Foresight is focused not only on identifying possible alternatives, but also on choosing the most preferable ones
During the selection process apply various criteria to determine the most preferable options. For example, when selecting critical technologies, the criterion of achieving maximum economic growth can be used, and when building a technological roadmap for the industry, identifying potential market niches and selecting technologies that allow the fastest possible development of competitive products for emerging markets. The choice of development strategy is made on the basis of a sequence of extensive expert consultations, which allows us to foresee the most unexpected paths of development of events and possible pitfalls.
Foresight proceeds from the fact that the onset of a “desirable” version of the future largely depends on the actions taken today, therefore the choice of options is accompanied by the development of measures that ensure the optimal trajectory of innovative development.
Most Foresight projects include science and technology perspectives as a central component. Typically, these issues become the subject of discussion not only by scientists, but also by politicians, businessmen, and practitioners from various sectors of the economy. The result of such discussions is the emergence of new ideas related to improving science management mechanisms, integrating science, education and industry and, ultimately, increasing the competitiveness of a country, industry or region. In addition, the very organization of systematic attempts to “look into the future” leads to the formation of a higher management culture and, ultimately, to the formation of a more justified scientific, technical and innovation policy.
Foresight projects are focused not only on obtaining new knowledge in the form of reports, a set of scenarios, recommendations, etc. An important result is the development of informal relationships between their participants, the creation of a unified understanding of the situation.
In a number of projects, the formation of horizontal networks, platforms within which scientists and businessmen, university teachers and officials, and specialists in related fields can systematically discuss common problems, is considered one of the main effects.
Foresight is organized as a systematic process that must be carefully planned and organized. As a rule, Foresight projects are carried out quite regularly, sometimes according to a repeating pattern (like the Japanese long-term forecast, which has been carried out every 5 years since 1971); in other cases, research is carried out as a sequence of interrelated projects aimed at solving a set of interrelated problems and forming a coherent view of the long-term prospects for the development of technology, innovation and society.
Foresight represents significantly more A complex approach than traditional forecasting.
Firstly, forecasts, as a rule, are formed by a narrow circle of experts and in most cases are associated with predictions of uncontrollable events (forecast of stock prices, weather, sports results, etc.). Within the framework of foresight, we are talking about assessing possible prospects for innovative development related to the progress of science and technology, outlining possible technological horizons that can be achieved with investment certain funds and organization of systematic work, as well as the likely effects on the economy and society.
Secondly, Foresight always implies the participation (often through intensive mutual discussions) of many experts from all fields of activity, to one degree or another related to the topic of a particular foresight project, and sometimes conducting surveys of certain groups of the population (residents of the region, youth and etc.) directly interested in solving problems discussed within the project.
The third main difference between Foresight and traditional forecasts is the focus on developing practical measures to bring the selected strategic guidelines closer.
The word “foresight” comes from the English “foresight”. Translated, it means “look into the future.” Today, foresight is the most effective method, which is used to formulate priorities in the fields of economics, science, technology and society.
Based on the results obtained using such a project tool, special roadmaps are created. They allow us to solve issues of shaping the future.
Definition of the concept
Foresight is an assessment of the long-term perspective of technology and science, which is carried out systematically. The purpose of such projects is to determine the strategic direction regarding new technologies and research that in the future can bring the greatest possible benefits of a socio-economic nature.
History of appearance
Foresight is a methodology that is relatively new. Appeared this concept about fifty years ago. The foresight method first appeared in a project developed by the American RAND Corporation. It was there that identification problems in the military sphere were solved.
In the fifties of the last century, the company's specialists were faced with the problem of the insufficiency of traditionally used forecasting methods. At the same time, they went their own way. RAND specialists developed the Delphi technique. Subsequently, many foresight studies began to be based on it.
The technique developed by the Americans was further developed in the seventies of the last century. It was then that the foresight method first appeared on a national scale. The Japanese government was one of the first to appreciate it. Not so long ago, the results of the eighth national foresight were summed up in this country.
Similar studies are carried out in almost all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in China. Relatively recently, Russia was included in this list.
Foresight received a new round in its development in the nineties of the last century. This was a period when the technique went beyond technology and science. Foresight began to be used to assess promising markets. Not so long ago, the technique was used in processes and in the formation of structures included in national innovation systems.
Application
The foresight method is used to develop long-term strategies for the development of technology, science and economics. At the same time, its results are aimed at increasing competitiveness, as well as the possibility of maximizing effective development economic and social sphere.
Foresight is a method in which Special attention is focused on achieving consensus among the main participants in the most important strategic directions. This is done by organizing their ongoing dialogue.
However, it is worth keeping in mind that foresight is not guessing the future. The method in question is based on something else. It comes from possible options futures that may occur if certain conditions are met.
Foresight directions
Forecasting techniques are used to monitor technological and global trends. It has a direct impact on the development of all government policies. One of the directions of foresight is the formation of an expert organization that will refer to the country's policy. At the same time, forecasting should point to images of progressive national development.
results
The product of the activities of foresight institutes are the so-called road maps. They represent official document, reflecting the likely paths of development of the state in the future. Based on these maps, long-term priorities in various policies are formed. Such documents serve as key tools for statesmen, since they are the basis for developing goals and strategies for the country’s development; when making important decisions in conflict or problem situations; to coordinate public and political activity states.
Methods
Most popular in last years received a forecasting method called Delphi. It is based on data from a survey conducted among a large number of experts (2-3 thousand), as well as the organization feedback through the second stage of the survey.
In research, this is the foresight method that is often used. A variation of the method, called Delphi, has already found its application in Germany, Japan, Great Britain and some other countries. To conduct the survey, only expert commissions in certain areas are selected and created. At the same time, a list is being developed public issues, economic, scientific and technical achievements, the emergence of which is expected in the long term (up to twenty-five to thirty years).
The experts participating in the research evaluate each topic and identify the presence of necessary resources. Potential barriers that may arise during the practical implementation of the most important direction are identified.
There is another foresight method. A type of future called “Critical Technologies” is actively used in France, the USA, the Czech Republic and some other countries. The necessary data is generated based on the knowledge of highly qualified experts. They compile a list of critical technologies in the areas under study. Typically, no more than two hundred experts are involved in such a foresight. At the same time, the forecasting prospect does not exceed five to ten years.
Almost every foresight project is compiled using the expert panel method. This method is considered basic. To implement it, a group of experts of twelve to twenty people is formed. They are given a specific topic and given several months to think about possible future options. At the same time, it is possible to use the latest information and analytical developments and materials.
The peculiarity of the expert panel method is that the foresight process itself is open to many people. The main advantage of the method is the interaction of representatives of various fields of activity and scientific disciplines, which is very difficult to organize under other conditions.
In the late seventies of the last century, Motorola developed new method forecasting. It's called road mapping. Its main area of application is the development of long-term strategies for large companies or technology industries. The essence this method is to plan all the main components of the business. This applies to finance and marketing, technology and derivatives and services. The main benefit of road mapping is the development of a coherent vision of the long-term development goals that the company is pursuing.
Selecting a method
Approaches that can be used in foresight projects are constantly being updated. More and more new methods are appearing. Their choice depends on many factors. These include time and resource limitations, access to sources of information, etc. However, the key condition that guarantees the success of the project is the use of a method that would provide the most effective work groups of involved experts.
Conclusion
So, what is foresight? This is a special technology through which long-term forecasting is carried out. In other words, this a certain way building a balanced, coordinated and responsible model of our future. Foresight 2030, 2050, etc. is the main result of the research.
The vision of the future is reflected in various documents, which form the basis for the development of long-term programs and development strategies for countries.
Definition
“Foresight is a systematic attempt to assess the long-term prospects of science, technology, economics and society in order to identify strategic directions of research and new technologies that can bring the greatest socio-economic benefits.”
Ben Martin (SPRU, University of Sussex)
Foresight is a technology that allows the circle of people who participate in foresight to agree on an image of the future, their actions regarding this future, and their desired future. The basis of the methodology: joint work of participants on a time map; working not with texts, but with images and diagrams. Unlike traditional forecasting, foresight technology is proactive in relation to future events. This means that the authors and participants of the foresight do not simply assess the probabilities and risks of the occurrence of certain conditions, but design their current activities in such a way as to strengthen positive trends and increase the likelihood of desired events and extinguish negative, undesirable trends. The very structure of foresight includes the designation of projects and events leading to the chosen goal. At the same time, in contrast to traditional methods forecasting and planning, the result of a foresight session is a map of the future, i.e. a visually rich space that allows you to see various ways and ways to achieve the desired result.
Basic principles of foresight:
- The future depends on the efforts made, it can be created;
- The future is variable - it does not stem from the past, but depends on the decisions of participants and stakeholders;
- There are areas in relation to which we can make predictions, but in general the future cannot be predicted reliably, we can prepare or prepare the future as we want it to be.
Foresight technology was created abroad 30 years ago and is actively used both in business and in government controlled. In 2008, as part of the “Metaver - Education of the Future” movement, a methodology for quickly conducting a foresight project was developed and tested, which does not require impressive amounts of budget. This technique is called Rapid Foresight or “speed foresight”. Obtaining a significant and verified result using this technique takes days or even hours. In addition, it is scalable, allowing you to obtain a coherent vision of the future both on the scale of one project team and on the scale of states and intergovernmental organizations. Even personal foresight is possible - to plan an individual future.
The basis of the RF method is to highlight the following elements of the map of the future:
- Trends – existing and emerging;
- Trend = an objectively observable and measurable process developing in a certain direction,
- Formats – technologies of social interaction;
- Key events that trigger, break or change the rate of trend growth;
- Bills and regulations legitimizing formats;
- Threats that may negatively impact agents (business organizations, educational institutions, markets, etc.).
Goals of the foresight session
Forecast – obtaining a reliable “map of the future”, describing the main possible events that will affect the industry/territory/organization in the described horizon.
Communication – facilitate communication between decision makers = Coordination by the main stakeholders/experts of their positions regarding significant factors influencing the development of the industry/territory/organization, and the formation of “road maps” of major development projects.
Education – the formation of a single “field of ideas” of foresight participants about significant trends and events (training from experts and foresight leaders in joint activities).
Diagnostics – determining the quality of participants’ ideas about the future of their subject area, the ability to systematically look at options for the development of the area and determine responses to possible challenges.
Rules for constructing a foresight
Trend is the basic essence of foresight. “Initial” trends fix the “starting point” of the foresight, and the development of these trends (and derivative phenomena) on the time map sets the process of filling the foresight. The remaining objects are included on the map only in relation to trends - as the culmination of trends or as a “response to a challenge”.
Objects that are not associated with any trend should not appear on the map. Thus, either significant trends are brought to the map that lead to the emergence of an object, or the entity does not appear on the map. The emergence, change or cessation of trends must be justified - by the impact of other trends and/or by the effect of products / technologies / events / laws.
The forecasting foresight session lasts three days. On the first day, expert participants in groups identify, evaluate and place trends, technologies, events and formats on the map. Participants in each group work on their own time map, and at the end of the day present their results. On the second day, the groups work with key markets (customers), and draw up a table of their existing and future needs, and projects are generated. At the end of the second day, a “circular lynching” of projects is carried out using gamestorming methods (short game formats + brainstorming), so the resulting project development models are tested for reliability. On the third day, participants work with regulations and expected legislative changes, group maps are compiled into general map time and final presentation.
As a result, foresight participants receive a “road map” - a visual image of a joint future, including key trends, events, technologies, strategic forks and decision points, a plan for legislative and lobbying measures, and a forecast for technology development.
Foresight is, first of all, a tool for people to communicate about their future. The more influence people have on this future, the stronger the foresight that happens. In a situation where many different structured images of the future are competing, the people who stand behind them are important. In a situation where there are few or practically no competing images of the future, you are able to enter the future and shape it not at the expense of your capital, power, strength, connections, but through the formation of your agenda.
Roles
The session involves the following main roles in the organizational team of the foresight project:
- Leading
- Moderator
- Foresight project administrator
- Designer
- Visualizer
- Coordinator
- Chronicler
The facilitator and moderators design the foresight session, adapting it to a specific purpose, time, topic, expert participants and current tasks. The session leader has the final say on controversial issues in the preparation of the session draft. Moderators refresh their knowledge of the subject area and become familiar with the latest trends in the subject area. The administrator monitors preparation deadlines, coordinates communication with experts, media representatives and other session participants, and ensures the timely receipt of artifacts necessary for the session.
Instructions
Time map - the main field of work of the participants, is a sheet big size, where on horizontal axis Time boundaries are located, and trends are located on the vertical line. The following fields are the same for all types of cards:
- Name
- Description
- Probability
- Author
- Trend (except for trend cards themselves)
All fields are required. Trend cards additionally contain the following fields:
- Years of trend existence: from _____ to ______.
- Type of trend (options: stable, uncertain, fading).
If during the time map a trend changes its type (becomes fading or turns from uncertain to stable), two cards are filled out for it, indicating the years of existence of the trend before and after the change of type. On cards of phenomena with extended life cycle(Technology or Format), additionally indicate:
- Year of appearance.
- The year of widespread use in society or industry.
On cards of one-time events (Event, Threat, Normative act) the year of origin (entry into force) is indicated.
Working with a time map
During the first cycle of work, trend cards are attached to the map; they are located in the left field. On the map, the type of trend is indicated by lines:
- Stable (the trend value will increase over time) - solid line.
- Uncertain (the value will change over time) - a wavy line.
- Fading (the value will decrease over time) - dotted line.
Over time, trends can change their nature, which is indicated by a change in line type. At the second step, technology cards are generated and attached to the map. Unrecognized, unlikely and at the same time interesting technologies are sent to the “black swans” field. The procedure for selecting “black swans” is repeated for all cards.
Then cards of formats, events, threats and regulations are generated and attached to the map. Other objects can also be added to the map, at the discretion of the moderator. At the third beat, participants find and designate connections between entities.
The next, fourth bar, is devoted to evaluating, criticizing and adding to the cards. In the case where there are several working groups, rotation occurs and participants look at the cards of other groups. At this step, the map is “cleaned”, the most significant entities remain on it, the rest are sent to “Black Swans”.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR COMPLETING FIELDS ON THE CARDS
Name The field contains a short name of the trend or phenomenon, reflecting its essence. The name is intended, first of all, to designate the object when discussed within a group of foresight session participants. Good name has the properties of a meme. Example of a trend: “Degradation of the educational system.” Example of technologies: “Transfer of mental images”, “Compact nuclear reactor”. Example formats: “Virtual Civil Registry Office”, “Summer Design School”. The names of the events are stylistically similar to the title of the article: “Employees of the Large Hadron Collider established contact with<10%) К последней категории могут относиться карточки “Черных лебедей”. Автор Поле заполняется фамилией и инициалами автора карточки - участника форсайтной сессии. Все объекты на карте времени должны иметь своего автора. Даты Все даты на карточках указываются с точностью до года.parallel universe
" Events always happen to people.
Example of regulations: “Law on Electronic Identity”, “IOC Rules for Recognizing an Athlete as a Cyborg”.
Example of a threat: “Exhaustion of hydrocarbon deposits”, “Loss of Russia’s defense capability”.
Description The field contains a more detailed explanation of the essence of the phenomenon, an explanation of its principles and mechanisms. For a trend, its measurable indicator can be given in the description.
Probability Each object on the time map has a probabilistic nature. Probability in
The presenter and moderators bear full responsibility for the process and the result - this is not a technical, but a substantive role. If groups work on different topics, then the main responsibility for the result lies with the moderators (only they know the opinions of the participants).
General provisions:
Foresight is technology. Each condition reflected in the instructions is a condition for the successful combination of materials from foresight sessions conducted using this technology into a single result. If difficulties arise, they must be recorded for subsequent discussion. Participants in the foresight session are equally invited experts/specialists and moderators. Experts are responsible for the content of materials created during the session, moderators are responsible for managing the process of producing results, their technological packaging, as well as for motivating other participants to continue working on the project. Productive group = a group where there are enough people to generate new ideas, and where they still hear each other (from 5 to 15 people).
Technology "Map of the Future"
The general principle of creating a map of the future.
The group’s work is based on the principle of placing standard cards on the map of the future: trend, technology, format, event, regulation, threat.
Cards are placed on three levels:
Middle (for example, 2012-2015).
This time corridor contains trends, technologies and threats, the emergence of which, according to experts, is only a matter of days. In fact, the materials of this horizon are a measure of professionalism and awareness in their own subject area.
Industry experts, with the participation of a moderator, are working to create a “single map of the future”, discussing specific issues at each described beat. The methodological result of the group’s work is the final “map of the future,” which is modified when moving from one beat to another. Changes are recorded and documented. The group should strive to fill all three time horizons.
Rules for filling out and placing cards on the map
Filling out the cards on the map is carried out in separate steps. Group members offer cards (trends, technologies, threats, etc.) and give reasons for their proposals. Other group members speak for/against the proposal, and based on the results of the discussion, the card is placed on the map (linked to the corresponding year). Only a moderator can place cards on the map!
If a card appears with which only a part of the participants agrees and fundamentally considers it important, then it is not thrown away, but is placed on the field of the so-called “Black Swans”, where the most fantastic ideas that do not find the support of the majority fall. This allows you not to lose standard organizational and managerial proposals, as well as unlikely but interesting industry proposals.
Sentences that are close in meaning should be placed close to each other, nested sentences should be grouped into one card (stack), placing at the top the reference card that most fully/accurately reflects the group’s sentences.
Participants themselves decide how much material and in what format they want to discuss. There is no requirement to discuss all cards filled out by participants.
Work with incompletely formulated materials is carried out at the discretion of the moderator: there are several intermediate options from “cut poorly formulated” to “help sharpen potentially interesting ones”. When choosing an option, keep an eye on the time.
Cards must be clearly filled out, easy to read (good handwriting or block letters) and understandable to an outside party with a minimum of explanation (clear wording).
There should not be too many objects on the map - during the work process it is necessary to evaluate the single map for readability. (Empirically, from 50 to 150 objects and comments can be placed on the map - trends, technologies, events, formats, threats and regulations). The key role of moderators is to ensure that the discussion among participants is such that worthy, important and interesting proposals are placed on the map.
Possible sequence of measures:
- Criticism of the philistine forecast map;
- Modernization of the trend picture;
- Generation of technologies;
- Description of possible promising formats;
- Generation of event maps;
- Identification of threats and regulations;
- Preparation of presentations and group performances.
TERMS
In foresight space (on the time map) there are three main types of objects:
- Trend
- Phenomena with a life cycle
- Format (product / business model / megaproject / specialist)
- Technology
- Phenomena-“points”
- Event
- Normative act
- Threat
The difference between phenomena of the second type (with a life cycle) from the third (one-time phenomena) is when they begin to affect trends - with a lag or at the moment of their appearance.
- an objectively observable and measurable process developing in a certain direction,
- goes in the “big system” (relative to which foresight is being done, for example, country, industry, region)
- has a measurable indicator that changes in a certain direction over time.
Trends are divided into 3 types: 1) stable, 2) uncertain, 3) fading.
Examples: “population growth over 65 years of age”, “increasing share of small-scale energy”, “miniaturization of devices”
Trends should be directly related to the foresight topic. A set of trends is identified primarily as a result of working with domain materials and experts. Everything that happens within the map occurs on trends, can generate trends and is connected with them.
A rudiment is a fading trend on which current policies (laws, regulations) are built. They must come from the past.
Two types of phenomena that have a “life cycle” (living and developing in time, subsystems of the “large system”) - i.e. it is possible to indicate the points of their appearance and widespread distribution.
- market or social “response to a challenge”
- always built on a trend (which is a challenge or an opportunity for him)
- may start a new trend
- “within” this type of phenomenon there are trends, but we do not consider them (we always compare the scale relative to the “large system”)
Subtypes of format: A format is a social/institutional response to a challenge or opportunity; in fact, it is the embodiment of some social practices. For example, “network palaces of pioneers” as a format on the “network social self-organization” trend. By format here we mean the format of communication (the type of relationship between people), which is always generated by the subject. The format has no end goal.
A specialist is a professional who solves a specific industry problem related to the market / technology / format / threat (for example, creating a product). For example, a “biotransducer” as a specialist in replacing non-biotech solutions with biotech solutions. It is advisable to place on the map only new specialists who do not currently exist in the industry.
A product is a market response to a challenge or opportunity that a trend creates. For example, the iPad as a product at the intersection of miniaturization and mobility trends (mobility was the only thing that separated the 1988 technology from its implementation in a product).
A megaproject is a managerial-institutional response to a challenge or opportunity created by a trend. “Mega” - because it is noticeable on the scale of the large system regarding which foresight is being done. For example, the 2014 Olympics is a mega-project based on the trend of “increasing Russia’s foreign policy significance.”
Technology: a separate technological solution (“new type of fuel”) or a package of technological solutions (“fast neutron reactor”).
- “answer to a call” arising in the scientific and technological revolution system
- matter or information
- partly driven by trends (setting the “challenge”)
- also due to its own logic of scientific and technological progress
- may start a new trend
Three types of phenomena that happen “at once” (on a foresight time scale):
- a one-time phenomenon expressing the culmination of a trend
- a marker that is always placed at the “breaking” points (gradient changes) of trends
It makes sense to introduce an event only if we indicate the point where something happens to the trend. The trend breaks and the event marks it. It's convenient to think of an event's name as a newspaper headline. For example, the trend “Increasing share of the Asian population in Russia” may culminate in “A Chinese woman becomes Miss Moscow.”
Law/Regulation (Policy)
- a number of policies that have goals
- institutional (regulatory) “response to a challenge” is essentially a one-time act of managerial will (embodied in a regulatory document)
- partly due to trends (setting the “challenge”)
- is also determined by its own logic of “institutional development” (the goals of the entity managing the “big system” - e.g. federal / regional government, industry regulator, etc.)
- “breaks” the trend (changes the gradient) and/or starts a new trend
A threat is a process that can negatively affect various entities or phenomena on the time map.
What is foresight? Foresight is a technology (session) of long-term forecasting, a way to build a coordinated, balanced What is foresight?
Foresight is
technology (session)
long-term forecasting,
construction method
coordinated, balanced and
responsible image of the future.
Foresight is the joint work of participants on a time map. This is work not with texts, but with images and diagrams. Authors and participants are not just
What is the basis of the Foresight methodology?Foresight is a joint effort
participants on the time map. This
working not with texts, but with images and
schemes.
Authors and participants do not just evaluate
probabilities and risks, and design
your activities. The result
foresight becomes “Map of the Future”.
Basic principles of foresight:
The future depends on the efforts made, itcan be created
The future does not stem from the past, it depends
from the decision of the foresight participants
In general, the future cannot be predicted reliably,
you can prepare or prepare the future
the way we want to see it.
Goals of the foresight session
Forecast – obtaining a reliable “map of the future”,describing the main events that will affect
industry\territory\organization in the described future
Communication – agreement with key stakeholders
parties\experts of their positions regarding
factors influencing the development of the future. Creation
portly maps of the future.
Education – the formation of a single “field of ideas”
foresight participants.
Diagnostics – determining the quality of presentations
participants about the future.
Basic units of foresight
TrendTrend is the basic unit of foresight. This
external stable trends, important,
a noticeable direction in the development of something.
Examples of trends:
Share of social design in
education has increased.
There is an outflow of children's activity into
social media.
Educational complexes are becoming larger.
Technologies
A set of methods, processes andmaterials used in any
branches of activity, as well as scientific
description of technical production methods.
Technology example:
Activist e-portfolio
Social design
Format
Method of construction and presentation, formholding any event
Format example:
Social Design Workshop
Training on the development of public speaking
Events
What takes place, happens, comes to a pointspace-time; significant incident
phenomenon or other activity as a fact of social
or personal life.
Example event:
Social Design Festival
Competition "Counselor and his team"
Law
Regulatory legal act that is adoptedrepresentative (legislative) body
state power.
Example of a law:
Additions to the Federal Law “On Education” on student
self-government
Order of the Moscow Government
Threat
Possible dangerExample threat:
The outflow of activity completely into the virtual
space
Lack of social funding
design
Fields on cards
All cards have:1) Title
2) Description
3) Probability
4) Author
5) The trend it refers to (except for the cards themselves)
trends)
Additional fields
For trend:1) Years of existence of the trend: from______ to______
2) Type of trend (stable, uncertain, fading)
For Technology, Format, Event, Threat, Law:
1) Year of appearance
For Technology and Format
1) Year of beginning of widespread use in society or industry
Working with a time map
First measureTrends are attached to the map.
On the map, trends are indicated by lines depending on the type
Over time, trends can change their nature, which is indicated
changing the line type
Second measure
Cards of technologies, event formats, threats and
regulations.
Unrecognized, unlikely, but at the same time interesting technologies
“black swans” go into the field. This procedure is repeated for
all cards. Third measure
Participants find and identify connections between
elements
Fourth measure
Evaluation, criticism and addition of maps
Foresight (English: Foresight - vision of the future) is a method, technology, process of systematic attempts to look into the distant future.
A foresight session is a system of events that ensures joint activities to determine and create a possible future.
Map of the future
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Kulikova Maria Nikolaevna
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LABOR EDUCATION IN A MODERN FAMILY
Memo “Foresight session technology. Filling out the map of the future"
Foresight (English: Foresight - vision of the future) is a method, technology, process of systematic attempts to look into the distant future.
A foresight session is a system of events that ensures joint activities to determine and create a possible future.
Map of the future
Trend – a word borrowed into English in the twentieth century meaning course, direction, tendency. Trend – a direction of development in any area in the education system, or a certain phenomenon, product or subject that sets the tone in this area. Trend – direction of development, main problem. Example of trend formulation:“increase, growth, acceleration, decrease, deceleration, mismatch, etc.” - “quantity..., speed..., requirements, interest in... etc.” - “at school, parents, the public, in society” Example: foresight topic - session “Involving parents directly in the educational process: innovative approaches and forms” Suggested trends: Increase in children with disabilities Expansion within the information field within pedagogy and psychology Increasing number of parents proficient in ICT Increasing the diversity of forms of parental inclusion in the educational process |
Risks and opportunities Risks (threats) – a consequence of the development of a trend, as well as a significant consequence of a technology, format, or other entity on the map, which can negatively affect a particular subject. Possibilities – the consequences of the development of a trend, as well as a significant consequence of a technology, format, or other entity on the map, which can positively affect a particular subject and create a new opportunity for him. Example: risks/threats of the trend “Increasing number of parents who own ICT”: Lack of face-to-face communication (risk/threat) Remote forms of communication (opportunities) |
Technology is a set of methods and tools to achieve the desired result. Unlike formats, technologies do not disappear without human effort; in a broad sense, it is the application of scientific knowledge to solve practical problems. For example – “portfolio technology”, developmental learning technology |
Format – this is a way of constructing and presenting, a format for carrying out something. For example – Parent meetings, a club for parents with children with disabilities |
Regulatory and methodological materials: documents necessary to implement the trend For example, the Federal Law “On Education”, Federal State Educational Standards of Non-State Educational Institutions, Federal State Educational Standards of Non-Professional Educational Institutions, local acts, regulations, etc. |
Event – a phenomenon, event that influences the development of a trend For example, the introduction of new generation programs, the adoption of a new Federal State Educational Standard |
Bibliography
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6. The concept of labor training in the system of continuous education. – “School and production”, 1990, No. 1 p.62
7. Latyshina D.I. “History of Pedagogy” (History of Education and Pedagogical Thought): Textbook. allowance. – M: Gardariki, 2003.
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