On the order of the director of the FSB on the equipment of the border zone on the border between Belarus and Russia. In fact, we are talking about the resumption of passport control at the border.
The FSB cites Lukashenko’s decree as the reason for its decision, establishing a visa-free procedure for entry into Belarus through the Minsk National Airport checkpoint for a period of no more than five days for citizens of 80 countries. Taking advantage of the visa-free regime and the lack of passport control at the border between the Republic of Belarus and Russia, refugees or other undesirable persons, for example, can enter the latter.
It seems that such explanations are not without logic. But in reality it is even more serious. We may be talking about a serious gap between Russia and Belarus and even about the Maidan in the latter.
First of all, you should pay attention to the background.
1. A few days ago, gas negotiations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, where a new gas supply contract was supposed to be concluded, failed once again. The Republic of Belarus wants to pay $73 per 1 thousand cubic meters instead of $132 (the price that will be when the existing contract is extended). The issue of paying off the debt to the Republic of Belarus for gas already received remains unresolved. The decision to reduce oil supplies by more than 20% was more than painful for Lukashenko.
2. Lukashenko pointedly did not come to the EAEU summit on December 26, where the union’s customs code was supposed to be adopted. It is worth noting the sharply aggravated recent months criticism of the union from various Belarusian officials.
3. In continuation of the previous point, it is worth noting the sharp warming in relations between Lukashenko and the EU.
4. It is impossible not to note Lukashenko’s recent statement about the struggle for independence following the example of post-Maidan Ukraine: “We got independence very cheaply: all the nations fought, today our fraternal Ukraine is at war. We cannot afford to fight. We are a peace-loving people. Probably, God set these difficult tasks for us so that we could feel what independence is. To overcome all this We can only unite. And, thank God, the main direction of our struggle for independence is through the economy - not in the military sphere, not in the political sphere.". It’s clear, after all, from whom is independence and who at the same time, in their opinion, should support this independence financially?
Yes, it is also worth saying that several news agencies, citing their sources, stated that there would be no way out. But looking at the messages on the topic, the possibility of Belarus leaving the EAEU is not so difficult to believe!
Lukashenko exists balancing between Russia and the West. Over the past few years, balancing this balancing act with fraternal rhetoric has become significantly more difficult. Well, then the West beckoned with its finger. Whatever one may say, the overwhelming majority of the elite of any post-Soviet country are Westerners. It's not a matter of bills and real estate in the West - here Belarus is rather an exception - it's a matter of dreams. They want to merge with Europe! They really want it!
Yes, Russia has leverage over Lukashenko. First of all, these are economic levers. But there is an obvious question: who will benefit from the serious economic problems in the Republic of Belarus? Will the serious aggravation of the socio-economic situation end with the Maidan?
In conclusion, I must note one more, perhaps most important, circumstance. Here, accusations against Lukashenko alone are not enough. Doesn’t the Russian elite itself dream of joining Europe? Is it possible under such conditions to talk about full integration in the post-Soviet space?
On Friday I received news from my Minsk friends on the topic “what we had…” I started thinking. And when I saw loud reports in the media on Monday morning that events had taken place in Belarus that reminded everyone of the Maidan in Kyiv, I began to think even more. And then we began to think, together. And this is the Russian-Belarusian vision that resulted.
IN Lately Many incomprehensible and illogical events are happening in the Republic of Belarus. Not only for neighbors, but for Belarusians themselves too. For most Russians, and not only others, it will probably be a revelation that Belarus over the past 6 years has experienced two devaluations with the national currency depreciating more than seven times, and then a redenomination.
These events did not improve people's well-being. Yes, many, smelling the smell of kerosene, began to buy everything and everyone, remembering how money depreciated after the collapse of the Union, and after a day or two they came and returned it back to the store, fortunately this can be done. We can say that not so long ago something similar could be observed in the Russian Federation.
But that's not what this conversation is about. In fact, Belarus ranks second to last in terms of income and economic freedom, ahead only of Ukraine. The so-called policy of a “socially oriented state” led to this, and in addition to this, to many other problems.
“Construction projects of the century” - ice palaces in almost every regional center, presidential residences, sporting events (World Hockey Championship in 2014), extravagant uncontrolled and ill-considered investments in certain sectors of the economy, pumping up this very economy with an unsecured money supply, which received the capacious satirical name “usem papizzot” (read, a salary of $500 is the dream of the average Belarusian), huge state subsidies to unprofitable enterprises (money is poured in, but the enterprises hovered on the brink of bankruptcy and remain there), an overinflated staff of the bureaucratic apparatus and security forces (first place in the world in the number of police officers per 100,000 population, namely 1,442 employees) - for a small country without significant reserves natural resources(“Belaruskali” won’t be able to cope with everything), modern competitive production is a serious burden.
Added to all this is large hidden unemployment, people’s labor contracts are not renewed (and this is a reason to be fired without compensation), while others are paid meager wages, given 1-, 2-hour working week!
And workers don’t quit because they can’t find a job, most enterprises are state-owned, and the situation is the same for them, but they don’t work in full force. Added to all this is the so-called “tax on parasitism”, they say, if you can’t find a job, no one cares about your problems.
Either go and do all sorts of low-skilled work at the employment center for thanks and for $10 a month, or pay a tax of 360 Belarusian rubles (~10,800 Russian rubles), if you are officially unemployed for more than 183 days a year. So it turns out that, no matter how you look at it, the Belarusian is constantly in debt.
But Russian tourists (and others don’t come to us much) who come for the winter or May holidays don’t see this. What is all this for? And to the fact that the Belarusian authorities, or rather the full-fledged ruler Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, is doing with their own hands what both foreign “friends” and local investors spent 100,500 million money on in Ukraine. It creates popular discontent; the opposition, of course, makes noises through its media, but few people hear it, people see everything themselves. After all, everyday problems are much more pressing.
How to survive on a real salary that is three times lower than that announced by Belstat? In a number of collective farms, yes, that’s right, even though they received different legal names, the essence remained the same, people do not see the money they earned for months. And what is left over is only partially paid in cash, the rest goes to a local store, where the employee is paid in food.
Not bad either, the attentive reader will say, and he will be right. But only partly. How to pay for utilities, kindergartens, schools, mobile communications, loans and other payments? While supplies made during fat years help out, and relatives who go to work in Russia, such guest workers, by the way, are also considered “parasites.”
There are no less problems in cities. Enterprises operate at a warehouse or at a loss, or are completely idle, or are going through bankruptcy proceedings. Multi-million dollar subsidies have not led to any results; they (state enterprises) for the most part are still unprofitable and unprofitable.
The conditions for their sale to a private owner cannot be called anything other than enslaving; in fact, real optimization of production and the dismissal of excess workers are prohibited. And besides, the absence of private property as such allows the state to take away an enterprise on a flimsy pretext and transfer it to its “strong business executive.”
Usually for a year or two, rarely more, during which time the new boss manages to ruin and bankrupt the company or enterprise to the ground. But don’t think about it, there are quite successful organizations in Belarus, but sometimes you get the impression that they are such because Belarusian officials have not yet reached them. For some of them, a well-functioning enterprise without their participation is a personal mortal insult.
In fact, if you look carefully and do an analysis, there is a clear tightening of the screws for the people who are already tired of all sorts of idiotic initiatives, resolutions and ideas.
Meanwhile, on the external borders, Belarus (read Lukashenko) is constantly blackmailing its eastern neighbor (trade, gas and oil wars) and begging for money. Moreover, he begs for money from the IMF, and from Russia, and from the European Union, and from the Saudis, and from Azerbaijan, and many others. The time has just passed when they were given so simply and easily and were not demanded in return. But no one gives money so easily. And Russia and the EAEU completely delayed what they promised.
And against the backdrop of all this, on February 17, 2017, the “March of Angry Belarusians” took place in Minsk and regional cities. Estimates of the number of people who took part in the protests vary (from 2 to 7 thousand in Minsk alone). The question “what to do and how to live/be next?” Every morning more and more citizens of Belarus ask themselves.
The real state of affairs shows that the ruler of Belarus has driven the population of the country and himself personally into a corner, and if it is a little easier for the population, they can emigrate, but Lukashenko, in fact, has nowhere to go (not to Rostov to Yanukovych, in fact, although also a good option).
But you have to give money, and a lot of it. The issue is not resolved, as in a fairy tale, at the behest of a pike, and here it seems that you need to be friends with your own population, and not spread rot on them, but it no longer works.
And the next question: what is all this for? Does Lukashenko specifically want to provoke popular anger in order to introduce martial law and impose total control following the example North Korea? Or is all this done unconsciously and at random? Hard to tell.
There is only one definite answer that can be given - this is all being done. And what this will lead to, only God knows. Or to an overthrow, as was the case with Ceausescu, or to an analogue of the Ukrainian scenario, but the fact that the republic has contradictions between the West and the East has not been a secret for a long time. Not as obvious as in our southern neighboring country, but there are some.
Russia, by the way, doesn’t need all this hemorrhoids either, there are enough other worries, but the Kremlin is already tired of giving money. But this Gordian knot will not dissolve or untie on its own.
Some, however, still believe in a good king and bad boyars, but there are fewer and fewer of them every day. And in reality, no one knows what to do with all this... And the protests are very likely to only grow.
Many in Russia will say: what, did you want to go to the Maidan? Is the Ukrainian example not enough for you? Let us note that the Maidan began precisely as an economic gathering of people who simply wanted to live well. And he was like that until certain forces intervened, turning the peaceful Maidan into a well-known action.
We do not want. We don’t want this for ourselves. But there is nowhere to go, because the situation is more and more reminiscent of serfdom. Slaves who spit no matter what, should. And there are no options for getting out of the situation.
By the way, those who were lucky enough to find work in Russia also fell into the category of parasites. Those who live and work in Europe, having passed through customs, have no complaints. And those who took advantage of the right to visa-free travel to the Russian Federation are also parasites. But at least they have something to pay.
On the other hand, this approach is very offensive. Yes, in Belarus there is an abyss of people who do not have a permanent job that brings stable income. And you have to turn around in any way possible. And earn these very rubles, which will allow you not only to fatten, but at least to simply exist.
But every Belarusian accused of “not participating in the financing of state programs” regularly pays VAT. In utilities, in food, in everything. If you think about it, what is VAT used for, if not to finance government programs?
Just “need more gold”...
Maidan... Well, Maidan. So what to do? I want to live, and I want to live as a person, and not as a naked sheep, from which they will now begin to skin him alive.
The fact that today there are opposition forces in Belarus that will take advantage of this is understandable. And people will really follow them. And not for visa-free travel to Europe, not for cookies. Although, we are sure that the cookies can be delivered. There would be someone. To tear Belarus away from Russia is a completely solvable task, and it is not solved by brainwashing the Ukrainian plan.
By the way, the Ukrainian “it’s all the damned m’s fault...” won’t work with us. Not the same people, you know. Yes, and this is not necessary, the Stepfather is quite good and copes on his own. And it’s a fact that people really blame him for everything.
Rallies and demonstrations took place in many cities. Somewhere a couple of hundred, somewhere thousands gathered. But in reality this is only a trial balloon launched by the opposition.
Seemingly familiar faces... Around Kyiv. Respirator masks... Not very pleasant associations, right?
But it’s probably worth recalling that, unlike Belarus, Ukraine has seen a succession of presidents, each of whom threshed his hay. Until Yanukovych finished his thrashing.
And in Belarus there is one... Almost eternal. And here you can’t blame anything on the predecessor; the predecessor was a long time ago. A long time ago. And today suggests that the patience of Belarusians is coming to an end. And it’s hard to say what tomorrow has in store for everyone. If only because Lukashenko is not Yanukovych, and the order that Yanukovych got stuck in his throat will not get stuck in Lukashenko’s.
In any case, Belarus has approached its own natural Rubicon. Time will tell what will happen next.
Andrew Wilson: The current turmoil can also be partly attributed to the dismal state of the economy, which has suffered three recessions since 2008
Andrew Wilson, professor at University College London and author of the book “The Ukrainian Crisis: What Does It Mean for the West?”, discusses protest sentiments in Belarus and their prospects in a column for Politico
What he didn't expect was the reaction. ordinary citizens who demonstrated unprecedented solidarity: approximately half a million people came out to rallies and protests.
These fines were supposed to be a contribution to the state budget. But in practice, only one out of ten fined actually paid the required amount. People often had to borrow money from friends or relatives, because we are talking about a country where the average salary is $380 per month.
Incidents of bureaucratic incompetence heightened feelings of injustice, and on February 17 some 2,500 protesters took to the streets of Minsk, kicking off a series of small protests across the country that lasted almost a month.
Until now, the West has not been overly prepared to respond to the oppression in Minsk or the invasion from Moscow. But one thing is clear: the status quo will not remain the same.Almost for the first time in 23 years of Lukashenko's rule, the majority of participants in street demonstrations - ordinary Belarusians, the urban intelligentsia and the traditional opposition found themselves on the sidelines.
Lukashenko’s opponents are isolated and ineffective; they can win Western grants, but this does not bring them one step closer to ordinary Belarusians. Moreover, their belated attempts to join the wave of protests only play into the hands of the president. Over the past two decades, Lukashenko has never tired of repeating that ordinary Belarusians do not trust the “cosmopolitan” and “Western-backed” opposition.
The current mess can be partly attributed to the deplorable state of the economy, which has suffered three recessions since 2008: in 2009, 2010 (after Lukashenko’s re-election) and 2015. The country's economy is still based on a neo-Soviet, state-oriented model; It’s hard to imagine how the situation could improve. The most optimistic forecast for 2017 is a barely noticeable increase of 0.4 percent.
Not so long ago, Putin regularly provided Lukashenko with subsidies amounting to 15-20% of Belarus’ GDP. But this model began to crumble in 2014, when Russia began to experience a recession due to huge spending on Crimea, Syria and Eastern Ukraine.
The dysfunctionality of the Eurasian Economic Union, of which Belarus is a member, has also contributed to the country's economic problems. Created in 2015, it does not yet come close to meeting Putin’s promises of becoming a “second European Union.” The benefits of trade are minimal.
With a decline in exports to Russia, Belarusian factories began to lay off workers. The two countries are engaged in a debilitating trade war. As part of the conflict, Russia last month introduced limited passport controls at the border, although both countries are supposed to be part of a common “union state.”
Lukashenko, despite everything, holds up well and even identifies himself with the state (this, to some extent, is fair). But many in the country have been alarmed by Russia's campaign against Ukraine, which has raised fears that the Kremlin could do something similar in Belarus. Lukashenko's diplomatic distance from Ukraine is not very reassuring in this situation. In the end, today's Kremlin only wants to see servility.
Lukashenko is excellent at using the carrot and stick method. He brutally suppressed political demonstrations after the fraudulent 2010 elections. He also bribes people with increased salaries and pensions. He's not used to bargaining.
Lukashenko's advisers also whisper to him about the dangers of the “Ukrainian scenario” and a popular uprising. But the suppression of mass protest will play into Russia's hands, and perhaps provide a reason to intervene.
Therefore, Lukashenko is intensively using the carrot and stick method. He suspended a tax on parasitism and agreed to postpone a controversial construction project near Kurapaty, the burial site of victims of Stalin's purges. But he also threatened to arrest demonstrators to weaken the uprisings.
If the Belarusian president wants to survive, he will have to walk a narrow path, with his own citizens pushing him from below and with the Kremlin biding its time.
Until now, the West has not been overly prepared to respond to the oppression in Minsk or the invasion from Moscow. But one thing is clear: the status quo will not remain the same.
The classic and generally accepted meaning of the word “Maidan” is any open-air area. There are a number of other meanings: a gathering place, a gathering place, a battlefield, as well as a place reserved in taverns specifically for gambling. In addition, it is the name of a holiday among some peoples, the name of an item of equipment for a Pomor fisherman, and a number of other unremarkable meanings.
But this is by no means a retelling explanatory dictionaries. And after the so-called “revolution of dignity”, which had the misfortune to happen in Ukraine in February 2014, the word “Maidan” took on another meaning. But it means not only Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square - Ukrainian), where the epicenter of the well-known Sabbath was located. It has also become synonymous with a coup d’etat carried out by violent, illegal means, as well as the forerunner of the state’s plunge into an orgy of anarchy and chaos.
Recently, and especially after 2014, opinions have been repeatedly voiced that it is very close and quite Maidan possible in Belarus– as the next stage in the spread of the plague of “colored” revolutions (we read – directed by the United States and its EU satellites) in the post-Soviet space. Let's try to figure out how close such statements are to the real situation.
About the march of “disgruntled parasites”
To understand the topic, you should not go into the chronology of the post-Soviet stage of development of the Belarusian state and give personal characteristics its current leader - each has his own management style and his own views on multi-vector policies applicable to one or another domestic, foreign policy and economic situations. Therefore, let’s take today as the starting point for protests in Belarus.
Or rather, on February 17 of this year - it was on this Friday that peaceful protests initiated by the opposition, nicknamed the “March of Angry Belarusians,” took place in the capital and a number of cities of Belarus. Well, what made them so “angry”?
The reason that “painted” the Maidan in Minsk on the horizon was the so-called “ decree on parasites“- a document adopted in 2015, according to which citizens of the republic who are not officially working for 6 or more months in a row during the year are required to pay a tax equivalent to two hundred US dollars. Such measures did not have the desired and expected financial and economic effect: at the moment, slightly less than half a million Belarusians have received the corresponding notices to pay the tax, and in fact the fee has been collected from only one tenth of potential payers.
According to individual experts, this document was conceived as a lever of influence primarily on shadow business, but expectations, based on total volumes the funds collected were not justified. And the approach to determining the circle of potential payers turned out to be very superficial - it included convicts serving sentences, housewives, disabled people and a number of other similar categories.
At the same time, the Belarusian economy is given time is in in crisis. Yes, things have improved somewhat compared to 2014, when the republic’s national currency lost almost half of its value, but overall the situation still leaves much to be desired. The result is unemployment, the official level of which is slightly more than one percent. But this indicator is far from an objective reflection of the situation - there is an acute shortage of jobs in the country.
Against this background, and also in light of deteriorating Russian-Belarusian relations, it is obvious that the economic situation has no prospects for positive changes - it will only get worse. Moreover, the decree failed to bring the economy “out of the shadows.” For dealers working through the “black cash register”, it is much easier to pay their $200 “tax on parasitism” once every six months and continue work according to old schemes which has some benefit for them.
All this makes the Maidan in Minsk understandable, which swept through other cities last weekend. Yes, not everything was as organized as in the capital, but still several thousand people took part in the actions, which does not give reason to consider them episodic and small in number.
There is no doubt that these actions have their own organizers and a clearly defined circle of participants, or potential participants. Who are they?
The organizer of the “march of the angry” is Nikolai Statkevich, who nominated himself for the presidential elections in Belarus, but did not receive enough votes. He is part of the association of opposition forces called “Belarusian national congress", which also includes Stanislav Shushkevich (the first president of the republic) and Andrei Sannikov, who heads the civil company " European Belarus" At the mass rallies there were also symbols of other opposition forces that dissociated themselves from the organizers of the rallies, but traditionally opposed Lukashenko, such as, for example, the Belarusian National Front.
Not without the traditional attributes of “color” revolutions that agitated individual post-Soviet states: a clenched fist thrown upward, collective chants. It has not yet reached the point of collective “races”, but who knows, there may still be more to come - the organizers promised to repeat similar events in March if certain results are not achieved.
It is noteworthy that the organizers of the actions deliberately did not pre-sanction them, as required by Belarusian legislation, but “nod” towards European norms and principles of Western democracy.
And the action itself, or rather its content and demands, subsequently acquired a rather ambiguous character: having begun as a protest against the demands of a specific decree on socio-economic issues, the participants subsequently switched to demands for the resignation of President Lukashenko. That is, the opposition made a sharp and very specific attack that had nothing to do with the original reason why the “angry Belarusians” gathered.
And here is the script for the play called “ Belarusian Maidan”begins to be written in a painfully familiar handwriting, and with a clear slant towards Europe. The opposition, as in the case of Ukraine, only needed a clue, the main goal was a change of power in the country.
This is evidenced by the information about the meeting of the editor of the opposition publication “Narodnaya Volya” Joseph Seredich with Lukashenko, during which the President of Belarus was offered a “round table” format following the example of Poland in 1989, when the local opposition persuaded Jaruzelski (President of Poland) to “surrender” post of head of the country. The opposition “in exile” also spoke in favor of this proposal, while Poland, presumably as a kind of symbol, even offered to provide a historical table.
The wind is being picked up, blowing from the West, which may well bring about the Maidan in Belarus and bring to it not only the local opposition, which can be characterized as “moderate,” but also radical nationalists who are especially susceptible to such events.
We should not forget about the “fifth column”, or rather the pro-Western group within the country and more so in the government of the Republic of Belarus. So, for example, Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei, who is considered an ardent supporter of the European course, not long ago, after consultations with his Ukrainian colleague Pavel Klimkin, contributed to the granting of asylum to the Ukrainian writer Sergei Zhadan. Previously, Zhadan was detained by the authorities of Belarus and was subject to deportation from the country as he was on the “black list” in Russia. Isn't this a clear and convincing argument in favor of pro-Western sentiments in the government of the republic?
About the reaction of President Lukashenko
It must be said that the reaction of the Belarusian president to the events that happened this weekend can be described as more than moderate. There were no high-profile arrests, as well as the dispersal of virtually illegal mass events - after all, they were not announced earlier.
Moreover, according to some experts, in all cities except Minsk, where protests took place, they were spontaneous in nature, and there were no signs of preliminary organization. Therefore, they were unexpected for the authorities: before this, Lukashenko and his entourage believed that they could rely entirely on the support of the periphery if something happened.
Lukashenko, being an extraordinary politician and having developed a unique, mutually exclusive authoritarian-compromising management style, perfectly understands the danger of what is happening.
Wherein, Maidan happened in Belarus, he is also aware of the responsibility for possible consequences: an example of Ukraine, torn apart by war and internal contradictions, is almost at hand.
And therefore, most likely, he will compromise, expressed in certain concessions to both the opposition and society. Perhaps, and the politician spoke about this back in early February, the decree will be worked out, and some of its provisions will be changed in the direction of reducing the amount of the fee and revising the categories of potential payers. And perhaps the decree will be canceled or its effect will be suspended for a certain period of time.
Because now Lukashenko will do everything possible, and if necessary, the impossible, to prevent a recurrence of protests: the stakes are too high for him. In addition, he now needs to retain the electorate, which is rapidly leaving him. Therefore, concessions and even a certain “flirting” with the opposition on the part of Lukashenko are very likely.
And finally...
Let us hasten to reassure those who are concerned - there will most likely not be a Maidan in Belarus. Contrary to the rosy hopes of the West for destabilizing the situation in the Slavic states of the post-Soviet space, “Old Man” Lukashenko will once again “pick up the keys” to the minds and hearts of Belarusians, and at the same time provide the opposition with the opportunity to shout to their heart’s content and, maybe even, jump – but until a certain time.
Until the relevant intelligence services, which work extremely effectively in Belarus, replenish their file cabinets with new facts that will allow them to properly “influence” opponents of the authorities in the future.
And then there will certainly be no Maidan in Belarus. And, most likely, the country will be able to avoid the chaos it is in now. And maybe the authorities will lose certain positions, but they will not lose the country.
It is safe to say that the situation in Belarus is now pre-revolutionary.
There are only three ways out of this situation:
Introduction of emergency dictatorship
The revolution itself
Broad concessions to civil society on the part of the authorities, a radical transformation of the system, a transition from an aggressive monologue of power to dialogue on equal terms.
Of these three options, only one is good, the last one. If the authorities decide to choose not him, but the first, then he can very quickly move to the second. And the second, in turn, is an attempt at occupation by a sworn ally. With all the ensuing delights.
Maidan is a negotiation tool
At the same time, the authorities are preparing for the fourth option - a repetition of the Ukrainian Maidan in Belarus. Which in our conditions is completely unrealistic.
You may ask, isn’t Maidan a revolution? Maybe I will surprise someone with this statement, but no, Maidan is not a revolution.
It developed into an uprising that ended with the flight of Yanukovych and the collapse of the ruling Party of Regions, more than two months after it began.
It lasted so long not because there was not a critical mass of people who were capable of crushing the power under themselves with this mass. On the contrary, one of the most numerous protests was a rally against the dispersal of a group of students on November 30. That is, at the very beginning of the Maidan.
In the minds of Belarusians, such a number of people coming out to protest almost means an automatic fall in power. And this is true - Yanukovych could have been removed as early as December 1.
If only there was such a task.
There was no such task. Despite the claims of opponents of the Maidan, who say that it was a coup d'etat, in fact, the Maidan was an instrument of opposition pressure on the government, a factor in partly public, partly behind-the-scenes negotiations.
Politicians not only deliberately did not lead people to storm, but also restrained the radicalization of the protest with all their might.
Because they achieved political victory at minimal cost. The political leaders of the Maidan were not the opposition in the Belarusian sense of the word, that is, not semi-underground and eternally persecuted dissidents, but part of the system of power in Ukraine.
At a certain point, opposition politicians were ready to come to an agreement with Yanukovych, receiving from him beautiful and large portfolios. But Maidan no longer understood this and did not accept it. I was there when this proposal was announced from the stage. The whistling and roar of indignation with which ordinary protesters greeted him made his ears pop. It seemed that now the stage, along with the political leaders, who had clearly ceased to be them, would simply be swept away.
That's when the angry crowd took the initiative. And the Maidan began to turn from a factor of negotiations with the authorities into an uprising.
What led to it was the impenetrable stupidity of Yanukovych, who did not immediately understand that if you tighten the nuts in such a situation, the thread will definitely break. It's torn off.
Fear not the Ukrainian, but the Romanian scenario
It will break with us too. Although Belarus is not Ukraine, people everywhere are approximately the same, the feeling self-esteem Everyone has it. Previously, this feeling did not affect the general population, because the layer of fat did not help. And the repressions were perceived as directed against a narrow and alien layer of the population.
But now, when in live Maxim Filipovich, the hero of the most popular social network “Odnoklassniki”, is detained while his mother cries, this is perceived in a completely different way - as “our people are being beaten.”
There will be no Maidan in Belarus. Because there is no politics in Belarus. There is no platform for negotiations. There is no subject for negotiations. There is no one to negotiate.
There are also no those who are able to provide support for the long-term existence of the protest camp. Belarusian Poroshenko and Klitschko, relatively speaking. Maidan consumed tons of firewood and food. Charter buses regularly ran from the regions, transporting those wishing to take part in the protests. What was the cost of the non-stop work of the huge stage?
No and large groups people who enjoy the fight itself - the same football ultras. Who are able to savor and prolong the confrontation with the security forces.
It is almost impossible to fight a revolution or a large-scale popular uprising. Only if you suppress it with tanks, like in China. But to do this you have to be China.
Belarus is not China. In our country, a revolution can only be prevented by broad concessions to a society in which discontent is already seething. It cannot even be delayed by repression. On the contrary, they can only speed it up.
It would be better for the authorities to keep in their heads a picture not of Kyiv in 2013-2014, but of the Romanian revolution of 1989. It started more than suddenly. Lasted only a week. And it ended with who knows how. Very bad for the ruling elite.
Among the Eastern European countries of the socialist camp, Romania was the least democratic. “Cruelest,” to use the terminology of the Belarusian president. With perfect order, raisins picked out of all the buns. That is why the overthrow of communism became very fast and extremely bloody here. To paraphrase Nietzsche’s famous saying: “If you pick out raisins for a long time, the raisins begin to pick out you.”
The more “velvety” the regimes in the countries of the socialist camp were, the calmer the changes took place in them. This is a completely logical pattern that is worth thinking about.
You need to be more careful with people, more gentle. Especially when he is very unhappy and angry.
