On December 18, Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin presented the company's five-year development strategy in Sochi. The company intends to increase oil production to 250 million tons by 2022
Photo: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
The strategy was prepared based on the oil price of $47 per barrel. It involves increasing production to more than 250 million tons by 2022 due to organic growth (in 2016 the company produced 210 million tons), Sechin said. According to him, the implementation of the strategy will additionally bring the company more than 180 billion rubles. in the production segment over five years.
The goal to increase production was approved at the annual meeting of shareholders in Sochi. Sechin spoke about it at a meeting with the management of subsidiaries in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug at the end of November.
On Monday, Sechin noted that he estimates “the net effect from the implementation of the new strategy at 15-20% of the current capitalization” (3.1 trillion rubles on the Moscow Exchange on December 18). Hydrocarbon production by Rosneft in 2017, according to him, will amount to 281 million tons of oil equivalent (in 2016 - 265.2 million tons of oil equivalent).
The company's vice president for finance, Pavel Fedorov, clarified that production of 250 million tons will be achieved only through organic growth of the existing portfolio, but the company will also continue to look at other development opportunities. “Our strategy in international markets is non-aggressive, we are working to find an attractive opportunity for shareholders, the projects we are involved in are characterized by a high degree of efficiency and synergy,” says Fedorov and cites the example of the purchase of Bashneft, with which we have already achieved synergy 40 billion rubles. And over five years the synergy will amount to 170 billion rubles, he added.
The main increase in production, as Fedorov predicts, will occur in 2018-2019 - the time of launching large projects. In 2018, it is planned to begin production at the Russkoye field - 1.3 million tons of oil in the first year. Rosneft's investments in key assets will grow: in 2018 they are planned at the level of 950 billion rubles. (in 2017 - 910 billion rubles), and in 2019 they will already exceed 1 trillion rubles.
As for gas production, Rosneft maintains plans to produce 100 billion cubic meters. m by 2020, said Rosneft Vice President Vlada Rusakova. She explained that the company has reviewed its portfolio of projects, selecting the most effective ones that maximize cash flow and profit (EBITDA). “We are always looking for partners, but so far there are no visible partners in Russian gas projects; we continue to work on the concept of gas market development,” she added.
“Rosneft” intends to separate the retail and drilling divisions into two holdings and has found potential investors for them, the company’s vice president for finance, Pavel Fedorov, told reporters: “We see two key potential projects: Rosneft-Retail and the second - Rosneft-Drilling " Drilling companies are trading at higher multiples, and Rosneft sees great potential for additional capitalization of this business, Fedorov noted. According to him, partial or complete sale of the drilling and retail business will add value to the company, and the first pilot holding will be retail.
Sechin on Rosneft’s plans to move to a holding management structure. The company hopes to attract a strategic retail partner who will be able to develop additional services at gas stations, Otkritie Capital analysts said in a review following a meeting with the company’s top managers. Until now, the company has attracted investors mainly in production projects, and the holding structure will allow it to look for partners for various areas.
Transcript
1 SOCIAL PROGRAM OF OJSC NK ROSNEFT The social policy of OJSC NK Rosneft is an integral part of the corporate strategy aimed at creating a full range of conditions for the sustainable development of the Company in the long term. This policy is based on unconditional adherence to generally accepted international standards related to human rights, as well as norms Russian legislation in the field of labor organization. High social responsibility to all stakeholders, based on equality of opportunity, mutual respect and the primacy of the law, is a primary condition for increasing efficiency and competitiveness in all areas of activity, as well as strengthening the business reputation of Rosneft. The company carries out large-scale measures aimed at: ensuring safe and comfortable working conditions; solving housing problems; improving the quality of life of employees and their families; professional training of employees; financial support for veterans and pensioners; social and economic development of regions. Main directions social policy OJSC NK Rosneft is in tune with national projects implemented by the Government Russian Federation, “Affordable Housing”, “Education” and “Health”. Social expenses of OJSC NK Rosneft in 2008 amounted to more than 17 billion rubles, the planned volume of social investments in 2009 will be 15.5 billion rubles. The Company’s social program is financed in the following main areas: improvement living conditions employees (share of costs - 10.9% of the total costs for the social block); creation of optimal working and rest conditions (31.7%); health care and support healthy image life (20.5%); non-state pension provision (13.5%); socio-economic development of regions (13.4%); maintenance of social infrastructure (6.4%); charity (3.6%). Costs for social projects are distributed among the following sources of financing: Attributable to cost (in 2008, up to 70% of actual expenditures spent on social needs), housing construction, the purchase of service apartments are financed, costs are spent on the development of the industrial social sphere and the maintenance of social sphere facilities, and also part of the payments social nature employees and pension contributions to NPF "Neftegarant" for the main project. Borrowed funds (3% of social expenditures) are provided as part of the implementation of corporate mortgage programs and for the provision of educational loans to Company employees. In accordance with the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the Company’s participation in the federal target program “Housing” for the demolition of dilapidated and dilapidated housing in the Sakhalin region, payments for social support for veterans and pensioners, and expenses are financed from profits (27% of social expenses)
2 under concluded Agreements with regional administrations for the development of the social sphere and for charity. In order to attract and retain highly qualified specialists and increase the efficiency of their work, the Company has been successfully implementing housing construction and mortgage lending programs for several years. OJSC NK Rosneft is implementing a Comprehensive Housing Program for its employees, which includes four main areas: corporate mortgage housing lending; housing construction; participation in the implementation of the Federal Target Program “Housing” on the island. Sakhalin; provision of office housing. In 2008, the Company provided housing for over the families of its employees with a total area of 64 thousand square meters. meters. 45 service apartments were purchased for personnel invited to work at subsidiaries from other regions of Russia under the personnel rotation program. In 2008, 660 families received housing under the long-term mortgage lending program. The corporate mortgage program includes providing an employee with an interest-free loan in the amount of 25-35% of the cost of the apartment and a long-term loan for the remainder of the cost of the apartment from partner banks at a preferential interest rate. Providing loans for the purchase of apartments is an effective mechanism for retaining the most valuable employees. In addition, the loans are repayable. OJSC NK Rosneft participates in the implementation of the national project “Affordable and comfortable housing for Russian citizens” - it builds residential buildings in those cities where the finished housing market is insufficient - in the cities. Grozny, Gubkinsky, urban settlement Okha and Nogliki, Sakhalin region. In 2008, the Company financed the construction of 8 residential buildings. Special attention The company pays attention to participation in the implementation of the Federal Target Program “Housing” in the Sakhalin Region. Thus, in 2008, costs for this project amounted to 148 million rubles, 43 apartments were received in the city of Okha and urban settlement. Nogliki for Sakhalinmorneftegaz workers. Financing of this program is carried out with the participation of funds from the federal and municipal budgets (up to 50%). In 2009, it is planned to allocate more than 537 million rubles for the implementation of the Comprehensive Housing Program with priority development of mortgages, which will provide housing for 167 families of the Company's employees. In order to create optimal working and rest conditions, increase labor productivity, reduce illness and injury to workers, the social policy of Rosneft OJSC pays special attention to the arrangement and development of rotational camps. By shift method The Company employs over 27 thousand people living in 62 rotational camps. In 2008, 5.45 billion rubles were allocated for the development of the industrial social sphere, and in 2009. the total investment volume is planned at 5 billion rubles. In 2008, the construction of a rotational camp for one person was completed at the Vankor field, and the construction of 4 new rotational camps is also underway. At the Igarka airport, which provides air communication with the Vankor field, construction of a hotel and canteen has been completed, and construction of a long-term waiting building (dormitory) has begun. A major overhaul of six rotational dormitories was completed (Tomskneft, Purneftegaz), and a dormitory for young specialists was built (Yuganskneftegaz). In total, repair work was carried out at 63 social facilities.
3 In the previous year, the Company carried out an analysis of the existing stock of rotational camps, the results of which revealed that social facilities comply with sanitary and social standards up to 88%. To change this situation, the Company developed and began implementing a Target Program for bringing the Company’s rotational camps to the standard standards of OJSC NK Rosneft. The result of the ongoing activities is a significant change in the appearance of the villages: old-style dormitories are being replaced by new, more comfortable residential complexes, medical care is systematically improving, the range of household services is expanding, and additional opportunities for sports and meaningful leisure are appearing. In total for the implementation of the target program in the years. it is planned to allocate 15 billion rubles. Maintenance of social infrastructure owned by OJSC NK Rosneft OJSC NK Rosneft is consistently implementing a program to optimize its social infrastructure in order to reduce costs. In 2008, expenses for maintaining the social infrastructure of Rosneft Oil Company OJSC amounted to about 1 billion rubles. As part of the work to reduce non-production costs, a number of social facilities from the subsidiaries, and on the basis of some of the most significant socio-cultural facilities located in unique natural and climatic zones (Baikal Island, Volga River), large Health Centers are created for the improvement of the employees of OJSC NK Rosneft. To organize high-quality health improvement for the Company’s employees and ensure effective centralized management of social and cultural facilities that will remain within the corporate perimeter of the Company, a subsidiary, RN-Zdorovye LLC, was created. It is expected that starting from 2009, the cost of maintaining social and cultural facilities will decrease by no less than 10-15%. OJSC NK Rosneft has developed a health protection program, the main goal of which by 2013 is to achieve a reduction in the morbidity rate of employees (per 100 people) by at least 30% from the 2007 level. The program includes: holding annual medical examinations, vaccinations; analysis of employee morbidity and implementation preventive measures; application most effective methods treatment; organization of sanatorium and resort treatment for employees and members of their families; promotion of a healthy lifestyle; creation of necessary sanitary and living conditions in workplaces. In 2008, 978 million rubles were allocated for the implementation of the above measures. In 2009, it is planned to spend over 1 billion rubles as part of the implementation of the health care program. Corporate pension provision In order to resolve personnel issues to rejuvenate the workforce of Rosneft, motivate employees, obtain additional levers for managing the team, as well as to ensure social security for retiring employees of the Company, the Corporate Pension Program is being implemented. Since 2008, the Company has been conducting active outreach work with employees about the need for their inclusion in the individual pension program and the conclusion of individual pension agreements. Currently, more than 18 thousand such contracts have been concluded for a total amount of over 130 million rubles.
4 This work will continue in 2009. Currently, over 100 thousand employees are participants in the non-state pension system, for whom Rosneft and its subsidiaries transfer pension contributions to the corporate NPF Neftegarant. In 2008, the amount of such contributions amounted to 2.3 billion rubles. of which 150.2 million rubles. was transferred under the project of social support of veterans. In 2008, people received non-state corporate pensions (9,343 pensioners and veterans). The total amount of pensions paid for the year amounted to 367.6 million rubles. In addition, within the framework of collective agreements, pensioners and veterans were provided with financial assistance in the amount of 236.1 million rubles. Charitable activities of OJSC Rosneft Oil Company OJSC is a socially responsible Company and sets itself the following objectives: to increase the attractiveness of the regions where subsidiaries operate in which employees of Rosneft Oil Company OJSC live; through various areas of social policy, provide social support to the Company’s employees; take part in solving certain public socially significant development programs cultural heritage Russia, the development of sports, patriotism, support for healthcare institutions, orphanages and other similar areas. One of the areas of social policy of OJSC NK Rosneft is a charitable donation within the framework of funds approved by the business plan for reporting year. Direction Money for commercial organizations, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, does not apply to a charitable donation. OJSC NK Rosneft annually allocates funds to provide charitable assistance. In total, in 2008 the Company allocated over 600 million rubles for these purposes. An important area of charitable activities of Rosneft OJSC is providing assistance to the indigenous peoples of the North in the areas where the Company operates. In the regions where they live, schools and hospitals are being built and improved settlements. The company also pays compensation for the use of land, purchases equipment for fishing and fuel, implements a children's summer health program, and finances participation in exhibitions, competitions and other events. In total, in 2008, OJSC NK Rosneft allocated over 100 million rubles to support the indigenous peoples of the North. Great importance The company is committed to the revival of Russia's spiritual heritage and the strengthening of moral principles in the life of society. In recent years, with the active participation of OJSC NK Rosneft, churches have been restored or rebuilt in many regions of the country, including Moscow, Southern Russia, Siberia and Far East. Agreements with regions OJSC NK Rosneft builds relations with the regions in which it conducts its production activities on the basis of mutually beneficial partnership, while paying special attention to the implementation comprehensive programs socio-economic development. The allocation of financial resources for the development of social infrastructure and the financing of various social projects in the regions where the Company operates is carried out in accordance with agreements concluded with the administrative authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the basis of mutually beneficial
5 cooperation with the provision of tax benefits to the Company within the framework of current legislation. As of the end of 2008, OJSC NK Rosneft entered into cooperation agreements with the administrations of the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, the Komi Republic, the Adygea Republic, the Udmurt Republic, Kamchatka, Khabarovsk, Primorsky, Transbaikal, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, Sakhalin, Magadan, Irkutsk, Oryol, Lipetsk, Novosibirsk and Samara regions. In some regions of operation, the Company's social policy is determined by the terms of subsoil use license agreements. Based on concluded agreements, investments are made in the development of infrastructure of cities and towns, construction of roads, schools, medical institutions, cultural and sports facilities, acquisition of the most modern equipment, etc. In 2008, Rosneft's expenses for financing agreements on socio-economic cooperation with regions amounted to million rubles. In total, in 2008, the Company took part in financing the construction, repair, reconstruction and logistical support of 18 preschool institutions, 24 schools, 28 cultural and 10 sports facilities, 15 medical institutions and 9 temples. In order to reduce morbidity, improve the health of the Company’s employees, develop corporate spirit and increase labor productivity great attention is devoted to supporting sports and promoting a healthy lifestyle - and this is one of the most important priorities of the social policy of OJSC NK Rosneft. Every year the Company rents halls and swimming pools for its employees and holds competitions in various types sports, special attention is paid to the development of children's sports. An important corporate event of Rosneft Oil Company is the annual multi-stage Spartakiad, which took place in 2008 for the fourth time. Competitions are held in eight summer sports (mini-football, basketball, volleyball, table tennis, Athletics, kettlebell lifting, chess and tug of war), while the number of participants in the Spartakiad is steadily growing. Priorities of the Company's social policy for 2009 In order to create a set of conditions for the sustainable long-term development of the Company, taking into account the current situation in the financial markets, for 2009 in the field of implementation of social policy it is necessary to: implement the Target Program for bringing rotational camps to standard standards; ensure implementation of the health program; carry out the withdrawal of non-core assets; ensure the implementation of the housing program; continue the gradual implementation of the reform of the non-state pension system in the Company.
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The concept of strategic planning of activities. Organizational and economic characteristics of OJSC NK Rosneft, analysis of internal and external environment, portfolio matrix and SWOT analysis. Strategic alternatives for the company's future activities.
course work, added 05/14/2011
Formation of the concept of social responsibility (CSR). Definition of the concept within its directions. CSR as one of the factors of company development. Sponsorship and charitable assistance. Qualitative analysis of CSR and its impact on the development of companies.
course work, added 06/21/2016
The market was looking forward to the presentation of Rosneft’s strategy until 2022, the “raw” version of which was drawn up “on the knee” on the eve of the company’s annual meeting of shareholders at the end of June. Despite the fact that the company worked on the program for six months, journalists perceived the presentation of its main parameters aurally from the lips of specialized vice-presidents: there were no colorful brochures, as some colleagues in the industry do. In the end, it seemed that nothing fundamentally new had appeared, but in general the June version was confirmed. True, in addition to retail, NK decided to separate drilling and petrochemicals into separate holdings.
The main message of the strategy is that the main and almost the only consolidator of the industry, at least at the level of the policy document, has relied not on expansion, but on “unlocking internal potential.”
Without production you can't go anywhere
According to Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin, the company’s development is planned by increasing the return of existing assets, developing services, reducing costs, and digitalization. The medium-term strategy is prepared under extremely conservative external assumptions and takes into account the oil price of $47 per barrel.
"The estimated net effect from the implementation of the strategy will be 15-20% of the company's current capitalization and will lead to organic growth in increasing production by at least 30 million tons, as well as generating additional cash flow - more than 180 billion rubles over 5 years (only in the mining sector - NK), - he clarified. Oil and condensate production of the company could amount to 250 million tons (210 million tons in 2016 - IF), added the first vice-president of the company Pavel Fedorov.
Sechin said that the company is counting on expanding the resource base in the Western Black Sea shelf of the Black Sea, where the company, together with Eni, recently began drilling an exploration well. “At this stage, we believe that the resource base could amount to up to 600 million tons of oil in this area and about 100 billion cubic meters of gas. But after additional logging and seismic studies that will be carried out as a result of this drilling, we can clarify and we even plan to increase the resource base,” he added.
At the same time, drilling on the shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk with Statoil has not yet brought any discoveries. "We drilled two wells. Based on the results of this drilling, we saw a significant change in geology. The region is fundamentally new. We are now re-evaluating the entire Okhotsk basin, the northern part. After this re-evaluation, we will decide on our future plans; it is obvious that they need adjustment based on the results what we got,” said Rosneft chief geologist Andrei Lazeev.
In addition, Rosneft maintains plans to produce 100 billion cubic meters of gas by 2020. “Our goals remain. We looked at the entire portfolio, selected the most effective projects - those that are already secured by our contracts, and which are most effective for the company, which allows us to maximize our free cash flow and EBITDA. And I think we will achieve this task (production of 100 billion cubic meters of gas by 2020 - IF),” Vice President Vlada Rusakova told reporters. “As for exports, we are still working in this direction, but we are not going to destroy any monopoly, we are trying to work within the framework of this monopoly, we are trying through Gazprom to work out the possibilities of developing Russian gas supplies,” she emphasized.
Rosneft's investments will remain high. Thus, in 2018 they are planned at the level of 950 billion rubles, excluding minority shares in projects, for 2019 - more than 1 trillion rubles. “The figures for 2019 are higher than 2018. This is due to the fact that we are entering the final stage of implementing large projects. And the figure will be higher than 1 trillion rubles,” Fedorov added.
The company has not announced oil production plans for 2018. At the same time, Fedorov replied that Rosneft’s business plan for the next year does not yet reflect restrictions on oil production as part of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement extended for next year. “We are implementing all the introductions that relate to limiting production until the end of the first quarter of 2018. We are waiting for directives regarding the reduction of production until the end of 2018,” he said. “Today there is a certain share, a significant volume, which the company shares proportionally in reducing production, which will be directed towards the company to reduce the level of production. In what form it will be directed, when and what will happen with this agreement will certainly influence on our short- and medium-term forecast, especially since I do not rule out that the agreement will be extended after this,” said the first vice president.
The additional cash flow from the implementation of the strategy over 5 years will amount to 420 billion rubles, Rosneft expects.
Daughters of marriageable age
The idea of separating individual businesses into holdings with plans for their further sale, voiced at the annual meeting of shareholders, was also approved by the board of directors and even received some development - in terms of specifying the assets put up for sale.
Fedorov said at a press conference that Rosneft could separate two segments of its activities into separate holdings: retail and drilling. “We see two potential projects that, first of all, can be separated into holdings, these are Rosneft-retail and Rosneft-drilling. These two businesses determine General characteristics. The first is the same arbitration in terms of the valuation coefficient of these businesses within the Rosneft perimeter and relative to the external perimeter. Secondly, if we talk about the management model, this is the ability to sell the service to other parties; both types of businesses can actively work with third-party contracts,” he said.
According to him, Rosneft has already held negotiations with potential investors who could buy out shares in these holdings, and received confirmation from them of their interest in participating in these projects. “In terms of readiness (sale of part of the spun-off holdings - IF), we are taking certain steps. And now we have an understanding of the terms of the long-term contract. We have held a number of preliminary negotiations, we see interest in these types of businesses. We are moving forward in the transition process. I think that retail will still be the first such experiment,” Fedorov added.
In a message from Rosneft following a meeting of the board of directors, it is noted that the petrochemical segment can also be separated into a separate cluster. “Strategic objectives include changing the product basket, implementing long-term contracts, optimizing capacity utilization and increasing the level of integration with the company’s refineries. The availability of accessible raw materials in close proximity to existing and promising assets will contribute to increased profitability of this business to the level of leading competing companies. New projects will be implemented with the involvement of partners and project financing,” the press release says.
VNHK - chemistry has not yet emerged
At the same time, there is no breakthrough yet for one of the large petrochemical projects - the Eastern Petrochemical Complex (VNKhK).
Rusakova noted that Rosneft will not have time to agree with Gazprom this year on providing gas to VNHK: “In terms of gas supply, we are still having negotiations (with Gazprom - IF). I think that by the end of this year we will “, of course, we won’t make it in time, but we’ll probably finish it somewhere in the first quarter (2018 - IF”). P. Fedorov expressed hope that the company will decide on the choice of a partner for the project in the next year or two, but for now it is negotiating: “There is technological synergy in the project, there is synergy in terms of access to target markets. We are talking - I would not like to name specific names - with a whole series potential partners. They are looking at this project. I would expect that in the next year or two we will decide on the choice of strategic partners for the implementation of this project."
As for the oil refining unit, Rosneft plans to complete the modernization of its plants by 2025, after which it will stop producing fuel oil. "On this moment The stage of transition to European standards has been completed and more than 30 facilities have been reconstructed, which allowed us to carry out this transition. We continue to reconstruct marginal units: these are hydrocracking, cat cracking and coking units, which will allow us to increase the yield of light petroleum products. The final stage reconstruction will be a complete abandonment of fuel oil production. We are guided that by 2025 we will complete the complete reconstruction,” said the company’s vice president for oil refining, Alexander Romanov.
Fedorov recalled that “today Rosneft is carrying out significant work with the Russian government to determine a fiscal regime that would ensure sustainable development of the oil refining segment.” “We believe that for oil refineries that are located deep in the domestic market and do not have access to export channels, first of all, where it concerns distribution channels for dark petroleum products, it is certainly necessary to provide approaches that would stimulate the necessary investments in modernization.” , he noted.
“The strategy as a whole is focused on unlocking the internal potential of the company. The new strategy provides a new vector of development, the company will acquire a new quality of development and management,” Fedorov noted.
The company's reporting surprised analysts and competitors
Rosneft this week announced the results of production and financial activities for the third quarter and nine months of 2018. The main result: Russia's leading energy company not only retained its global leadership among public companies in the production of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, but also strengthened its position.
Rosneft is increasingly attracting investors. The very successful results of the Russian oil company's activities over the past nine months could not but have a positive impact on its capitalization. Rosneft shares grew by more than 5%, thereby updating the maximum values of the month. As a result, the company’s value again exceeded 5 trillion rubles, and it continues to remain the most expensive in Russia.
By the way, analysts at one of the world’s largest investment banks, Merrill Lynch, predicted last year that 2018 would be a record year for Rosneft for a number of key indicators: free cash flow (profit after taxes and investments plus depreciation) and dividend yield. However, all the experts’ assumptions turned out to be more modest than the oil company’s report itself. For example, Rosneft's cash flow has remained positive for more than six years. In just 9 months it increased 4.3 times and amounted to 872 billion rubles. The growth dynamics of this indicator are ahead of similar values of foreign competitors. For the Norwegian Equinor, this figure increased by 24%, and for the Chinese Sinopec - by 31%. The French Total and Chinese PetroChina decreased completely - by 67% and 3%, respectively. The dynamics of Rosneft's revenue for the nine months of 2018 in annual terms also turned out to be higher than that of its competitors: it grew by more than 40%.
In addition, the success of Rosneft is clearly reflected in the following the most important indicator, as EBITDA - earnings before interest expenses, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Over nine months, EBITDA grew by 57.7% in rubles, amounting to 1.6 trillion rubles. This is above the consensus forecast of key investment banks.
As noted in the company’s reporting, high financial performance was facilitated by good strong operating results and favorable pricing conditions, as well as a reduction in working capital by more than 200 billion rubles since the beginning of the year, including as a result of measures taken in the trading business aimed at increasing the efficiency of cooperation with major partners.
“Rosneft’s reporting exceeded expectations and is ready to continue to please investors,” says Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the analytical department at Alpari. — The company managed to achieve such high results by increasing sales volumes of oil, gas and petroleum products in the context of rising oil prices. The increase in product sales volumes was made possible by changing the parameters of the OPEC+ deal towards expanding production. A quarter of the net profit for the third quarter of 2018 is profit from the activities of Bashneft.
Despite the serious market challenges that Rosneft faces, it continues to fulfill its strategic objectives. One of its main achievements is, of course, the reduction of debt and a significant improvement in financial performance for the reporting period. What is the secret of success? We are talking about a whole complex of reasons.
“In these difficult conditions, the strategic goal is to increase cash flow and reduce the debt burden,” notes Rosneft head Igor Sechin. — Consistently moving towards achieving this goal, the company ahead of schedule implemented the plans announced in May of this year to reduce the debt burden and reduce working capital. Since the beginning of the year, Rosneft has reduced the total volume of long-term trade prepayments and net financial debt by $12 billion. The priority for the near future in the form of organic growth and monetization of synergies from the integration of acquired assets remains unchanged. Going forward, we also plan to focus on cost control, careful selection of investment projects and free cash flow generation in order to further reduce our debt burden.”
According to Aton senior analyst Alexander Kornilov, “first of all, it should be noted that debt reduction is the company’s key priority. Even in a hypothetical scenario, when the ruble remains as weak and oil remains as expensive, the company, despite the additional financial resources that they have as a result of such a favorable picture, nevertheless focuses on reducing debt rather than increasing capital costs. This is the key point that the market wanted to hear, and it heard it.”
Debts are being reduced
The short-term portion of financial liabilities decreased in the third quarter by 11.5% (from $14.5 to $12.9 billion), mainly due to their planned repayment and partial refinancing with long-term borrowed instruments.
The company reports that back in May, Rosneft announced plans to reduce the total debt burden by at least 500 billion rubles and reduce the target level of capital expenditures. The initiative is being implemented in addition to the already approved dividend policy of paying at least 50% of net profit according to IFRS standards and is aimed at increasing profitability for shareholders and improving the investment attractiveness of Rosneft.
In addition, in the reporting period, Rosneft retained its leadership among global public companies in terms of unit production costs ($2.9 per barrel of oil equivalent in the third quarter and $3.1 per barrel of oil equivalent in January - September). At the same time, compared to the previous quarter, there was a decrease in the indicator: in the second quarter of 2018, Rosneft’s unit production costs were $3.1 per barrel. n. e.
Production successes
Statistics is, at first glance, a boring science, but behind the dry numbers are hidden interesting trends that give an idea of the company’s activities, its condition and development prospects. Therefore, looking at the results of its work in the third quarter, we will see an increase in hydrocarbon production by 3.2% (compared to the previous quarter) - up to 536 million barrels. n. e. For comparison: PetroChina managed to increase production by only 0.3%, BP by 1.6%, Sinopec by 2%, while Eni reduced it by 3%.
At the same time, the average daily production of liquid hydrocarbons also increased: on average, Rosneft produced 4.73 million barrels of black gold per day, thereby increasing this figure by 3.4% in annual terms. It was able to achieve a similar result thanks to optimal management of the production well stock at a number of mature fields.
Thus, the company timely realized the previously declared technological potential to increase the production volume of liquid hydrocarbons in the amount of 200 thousand barrels per day, which serves as clear confirmation of the correctness of the strategic choice of assets for production development. Moreover, Rosneft is increasing production based on proposals voiced at a meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the countries participating in the OPEC+ Agreement in Algeria at the end of September this year.
In accordance with the approved strategy, Rosneft plans to continue to expand production of liquid hydrocarbons to 5.09 million barrels per day (250 million tons) by 2022.
Production begins with exploration
Geological exploration is the basis for the reproduction of the mineral resource base. During the reporting period, Rosneft carried out an impressive amount of geophysical, prospecting and exploration work. Based on the results of three quarters, 2D seismic work was carried out on land in the amount of 4.8 thousand linear meters. km, 3D - in the amount of 8.2 thousand sq. km. The company carried out large-scale seismic exploration work in strategically important regions of its presence - the Khatanga cluster - and continued to implement projects in Yakutia. Currently, work continues on processing and interpreting the data obtained, based on the results of which prospecting and appraisal drilling will be carried out.
In accordance with its strategy, Rosneft aims to improve the quality and success of exploration drilling. Over nine months, 77 prospecting and exploration wells were drilled on the land part of our country. 58 new deposits and 14 new fields were discovered with reserves of 117 million tons of oil equivalent. e.
For many years, Rosneft has consistently ensured high levels of coverage of current production with reserve growth. In 2018-2022, the company intends to replace at least 100% of produced hydrocarbons.
Growth Leaders
Rosneft set a new industry record for daily drilling progress - 56,708 meters, exceeding the previous achievement by almost 7%. In the third quarter, the volume of development drilling increased by 4% compared to the second quarter of 2018 and by 5% year-on-year, exceeding the level of 9 million meters. The commissioning of new wells was increased by 13% with the share of horizontal wells increasing to 46%. The number of new horizontal wells commissioned with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing (MSHF) increased by 69%. Rosneft maintained the share of its own drilling services at 60%.
The leader was Rosneft's production asset Yuganskneftegaz. Thanks to the introduction of advanced technologies in the field of exploration and production, the company set a new industry record for daily oil production - 195.3 thousand tons. This is the highest indicator of the enterprise in the modern history of Russia, which became possible due to the large-scale use innovative technologies and our own scientific developments in the field of drilling. Over nine months, the growth in liquid hydrocarbon production at RN-Yuganskneftegaz reached 6.5% compared to the same period in 2017.
The development of technological potential is one of the key elements of Rosneft’s strategy for the period until 2020. The company pays close attention to innovation and the use of breakthrough technological approaches, identifying technological leadership as a key factor of competitiveness in the oil market.
Of course, Rosneft is actively preparing new hydrocarbon deposits and deposits for development. For example, at the Suzunskoye field, the second phase of development has begun, which includes the construction of gas program facilities (a gas treatment plant with a compressor station, the Suzun-Vankor interfield gas pipeline, gas well clusters). The production plateau is expected to reach 4.5 million tons in 2019.
The development of the East Messoyakhskoye field continues successfully using multilateral and high-tech wells with Fishbone technology, and pilot work on polymer flooding is being carried out, increasing the efficiency of developing hard-to-recover reserves. The production level of 3 million tons is planned to be reached in 2021.
Underway intensive work on the development of the Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye field and the technological launch of second-stage facilities, which provides for increasing oil production volumes to 5 million tons in 2019. Construction of a second oil treatment unit is underway. It is planned to reach the production plateau of 5 million tons in 2019.
In accordance with the plans, the development of the Erginsky cluster is underway. The efficiency of drilling operations, as well as the use of modern technological advanced solutions, made it possible to achieve 1 million tons of accumulated oil production in less than a year from the start of commercial operation of the Kondinskoye field. This was achieved through effective management development drilling program and consistent implementation of the program research work to clarify geological structure deposits. Next year it is planned to reach a production plateau of more than 2.5 million tons.
By the way, at the fields of the Erginsky cluster, technologies such as geosteering during the drilling process are used - real-time control of the well trajectory, which allows increasing the efficiency of drilling through the productive part of the formation. In addition, geophysical surveys of wells are carried out using nuclear magnetic, acoustic and other methods, modern methods hydrodynamic and geomechanical modeling to optimize the process of completing horizontal wells and planning multi-stage hydraulic fracturing.
And, naturally, Rosneft is preparing for the phased commissioning of the second stages of the Srednebotuobinskoye, Tagulskoye, Russkoye and Kuyumbinskoye fields.
Step on the gas
Development of the gas business is one of Rosneft’s priorities. According to the Rosneft-2022 development strategy, the implementation of major gas production projects will allow the company to take a 20% share in the country’s gas market while increasing production to above 100 billion cubic meters. meters.
These plans are being successfully implemented. At the end of the third quarter, Rosneft retained the title of the largest independent gas producer in Russia, having produced 16.62 billion cubic meters. meters of gas (1% higher than in the second quarter). Production increased mainly due to the development of the capacity of the Zohr project on the Egyptian shelf, as well as an increase in the production of associated petroleum gas due to the easing of restrictions under the OPEC+ Agreement.
Next year, only at the Rospan project, where construction of key production facilities infrastructure, total annual gas production will exceed 19 billion cubic meters. meters, liquid hydrocarbons - more than 5 million tons. The company has already started developing the Kharampurskoye field in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which is the second promising gas project after Rospan. In the near future, work is planned to develop the gas field of the Cenomanian deposit - with the launch of the project in 2020 and the subsequent achievement of a production plateau of 11 billion cubic meters. meters per year.
The Zohr field on the Egyptian shelf, which was put into commercial operation in December 2017, is being developed at a rapid pace. Gas production here over nine months amounted to about 7.1 billion cubic meters. meters of gas (1.3 billion cubic meters in the company’s share). The field's production capacity has been increased by more than 25% - over 56.6 million cubic meters. meters of gas per day (~10.2 million cubic meters per day in the company’s share). The projected production level is more than 76 million cubic meters. meters of gas per day can be achieved as early as 2019.
Extract and process
Rosneft is the largest refiner in Russia. The company's activities in the field of oil refining in recent years have been aimed at meeting the needs of the domestic market for high-quality petroleum products.
At the end of the third quarter, refining volumes at Rosneft's Russian refineries increased by 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and amounted to 26.8 million tons. Over nine months, raw material processing expanded by 1.8% to 76.6 million tons. This was facilitated by improved market conditions. The total volume of oil refining, taking into account foreign enterprises, in the third quarter increased by 6% - to 30 million tons, and in nine months - to 85.5 million tons, or by 1.4% year on year. The refining depth indicator remained at the level of nine months of 2017 and amounted to 75.2%.
Rosneft is implementing the industry's largest oil refinery modernization program worth 1.4 trillion rubles, of which 850 billion rubles have already been invested: 22 main installations and oil refining complexes have been built and modernized, which has allowed Rosneft to significantly increase the production of 5th grade gasoline and fully meet the needs of the domestic market.
The basis of Rosneft’s new strategy will be to build a business that takes into account the highest requirements in the field of ecology, industrial safety and security environment. Rosneft, within the framework of the adopted strategy, intends to enter the first quarter of the list of global oil and gas companies in terms of key indicators in this area.
And, of course, we shouldn’t forget about the sale of petroleum products through our usual gas stations. In the third quarter, sales of petroleum products through the high-margin retail channel increased by 20% compared to the same period last year. Thanks to the installation of additional coffee corners at gas stations and small-format gas stations, sales of coffee and hot dogs increased by 4% and 8%, respectively. Currently, preparations are underway to begin selling goods under its own brand at filling stations. The company is actively developing the use of compressed gas as a motor fuel. It is worth noting that Rosneft has already put into pilot operation mode 10 gas filling stations in Ulyanovsk, Voronezh, Saratov and Stavropol region, another station is being prepared for launch in Saratov and two in Ulyanovsk. Thus, by the end of 2018, this network will consist of 13 gas filling infrastructure facilities.
Quality control
Work is carried out on an ongoing basis to control the quality of fuel sold at the company's oil depots and gas stations. Using our own mobile laboratories at gas stations and filling stations, more than 5.7 thousand inspections were carried out in 46 regions of Russia. Since the beginning of the year, fuel quality checks at oil depots and gas stations have been carried out in all regions of the Rosneft retail network presence. Such control eliminates the risk of selling fuel with quality deviations to consumers. Also, at gas stations and filling stations of Rosneft, the volumes of fuel supplied to the end consumer are monitored on a periodic basis.
At the same time, improved types of motor fuel are offered to consumers. In September 2018, following the Ufa group of refineries, the Saratov Refinery began industrial production of high-octane Euro-6 motor gasoline with improved environmental and performance properties. Fuel has already arrived at most Rosneft gas stations in the Krasnodar Territory.
This fuel has high quality indicators. Euro 6 gasoline contains less sulfur, which reduces corrosive activity; less benzene and, therefore, lower exhaust toxicity; fewer olefinic hydrocarbons, which form carbon deposits in the engine during combustion; lower resin concentration and higher fuel stability during storage. In addition, the content of aromatic hydrocarbons has been reduced, which has also reduced the formation of soot on the internal parts of the engine.
Another innovation: in August 2018, Rosneft announced the start of sales of the new premium high-octane fuel Pulsar-100, the unique composition of which allows you to fully unleash the potential of modern highly accelerated engines and increase their operating efficiency. The high performance properties of Pulsar-100 were confirmed by BASF specialists during special engine tests conducted by the German company using a BMW engine with direct multipoint injection.
Pulsar-100 gasoline has already become the official fuel of the Russian circuit racing series, in which the LADA Sport ROSNEFT racing team takes part. And racers, as we know, require the most advanced and best fuel available. Sales of Pulsar-100 have already begun at the company's gas stations in the Moscow region.
Supplies and new technologies
As part of the diversification of oil supplies, the company continued to increase shipments of raw materials in the eastern direction. Thus, over the nine months of 2018, supplies increased year-on-year by 22.4% - to 43.1 million tons. The growth rate in the third quarter of 2018 was 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, to 15.7 million tons.
In terms of developing the lubricants business, specialists from the Rosneft Corporate Research and Design Complex developed and patented the composition and production technology of the first Russian multifunctional package of additives for hydraulic oils for industrial equipment. These oils are adapted to work in the most difficult climatic conditions, consist of domestic raw materials and are 1.5 times cheaper than imported analogues.
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The Angarsk Petrochemical Company is a key asset of Rosneft. Photo by the press service of PJSC NK Rosneft
In addition, the company's specialists have developed motor oils for the Arctic and Far North, which ensure reliable operation at ambient temperatures of minus 60°C. The technology has no analogues in Russia and will be used at the Angarsk Petrochemical Plant.
Investors appreciated
The positive production and financial result of the oil company was predicted by both Russian and foreign experts, and it came true. Since the beginning of the year, Rosneft shares have grown on the Moscow Exchange by exactly 60% (at the time of writing) - nothing in common with its competitors. The American companies ExxonMobil and Chevron, for example, saw their capitalization decrease despite rising oil prices (minus 5.2% and minus 4.2%, respectively); the growth of other companies was quite modest: the Norwegian Equinor added 29.3%, the French Total - 21.1%, British BP - only 9.6%. And this despite the ever-tightening sanctions regime and the start of the “trade tariff war.”
It is worth recalling that in early August, due to strong financial results for the second quarter and associated high expectations for dividends, Rosneft became the most expensive company in Russia by capitalization, overtaking Sberbank. At the same time, the company actually regained the palm - from April to November 2016, Rosneft was already the most expensive in our market.
“We are generally very positive about this paper. We think she is underrated. We see additional potential. Now, if we talk not in rubles, but in dollars, which is probably more correct, the security is trading at 7 dollars 14 cents, we have a target price of 8.5 dollars, that is, we see a certain growth potential in it,” said the senior Aton analyst Alexander Kornilov, speaking about the prospects for Rosneft shares after the publication of results.
Investment bank Merrill Lynch raised its target price for the company's shares by 12%.
“We confirm our “buy” recommendation and increase the target price for GDRs to $8.5 per share (+12%) and for ordinary shares to 561 rubles against the backdrop of increased profit forecasts as a result of high oil prices and free cash flow. ”, says the bank’s analysts in a report.
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“We consider Rosneft’s reporting to be good: the company exceeded market expectations, strengthened its key financial indicators, increased financial stability and multiplied free cash flow,” Veles Capital analysts said.
In the second half of August, the Rosneft board of directors announced recommendations for dividend payments based on the results of the first half of 2018 - in the amount of 14.58 rubles per ordinary share. Thus, the total amount of funds for the payment of interim dividends for the first half of the year alone amounted to 154.5 billion rubles and turned out to be 1.5 times higher than for the entire 2017 (111.1 billion rubles).
Today, Rosneft shareholders are more than 100 thousand individuals and more than 500 of the largest international investment funds. Since the IPO in 2006, the company's dividends have exceeded 870 billion rubles.
Plus a third major shareholder
An important event in September, which should have a positive impact on the company’s profitability in the future, was the increase in the share of the Qatar Sovereign Fund (QIA) to 18.93% in Rosneft’s share capital. Thus, QIA became the third largest shareholder of Rosneft after Russian government(just over 50%) and British BP (19.75%).
The professional expert community called the increase in the share of the Qatari fund QIA in Rosneft a positive sign. The agreement opens up prospects for mutually beneficial cooperation, increases the synergistic effect and confirms the attractiveness of Rosneft for investors, given the potential for growth in the company's capitalization.
Rosneft, report,
