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Preventive war. Preemptive strike - what is it?

READING

PREVENTIVE STRIKE

Tatiana cooked borscht. It was almost ready, and the most delicious smells came from the large yellow pan with flowers. Despite her youth, Tanya was an excellent housewife and an excellent cook.

- Smells delicious! And I'm so hungry! Where is Kostyan? Does he play with toys?

The husband, Sergei, came in and looked into the kitchen and smiled broadly. His smile was always so charming that it was impossible not to smile back. And Tanya blossomed, walked up to her husband with a ladle in her hands, and kissed him.

A playful Kostya came running from the nursery, reached out to his father, and he grabbed his son, slowed him down, and went with him to the toys. Tanya listened to their fuss in the children's room and smiled happily.

Sergei returned to the kitchen, affectionately hugged his wife, and then sat down at the table, became serious and said slowly:

- Tanya, just don’t get upset, okay? It looks like we’ll have to take my mother in with us again... Something about her and Ritulya’s relationship is not very good... Well, you know, my sister has a complex character... Today my mother called and cried...

The husband looked embarrassed. Tanya was silent, and he stood up and, trampling around kitchen table, said:

- I’ll... I’ll go put the car in the garage. I’ll take Kostya with me for a walk. And we'll come for lunch.

Sergei left, and Tanya slowly sat down on a chair. She looked out the window with unseeing eyes. Will the mother-in-law really move in with them again? Will this endless torture begin again?

The character of Irina Lvovna, like her eldest daughter Margarita, was, to put it mildly, complex. But at first Tanya had no idea about this. The acquaintance with the husband's parents was short: the newlyweds stayed with them for several days and left for the place of Sergei's new assignment, a professional military man.

These few days were not the most pleasant in Tanya’s life. Especially understand family relationships She didn’t make it to the Petrovs. I noticed, however, that the decisive voice in all matters belonged to Irina Lvovna. The father-in-law, a retired colonel, was an easygoing person; he rarely addressed Tanya, but kindly. As for the mother-in-law, she behaved dryly, reservedly, and with all her appearance made it clear what kindness their family was showing in accepting their young daughter-in-law.

Tanya somehow immediately felt that Irina Lvovna considered her not a match for her son - apparently, this was not the kind of daughter-in-law she was waiting for. Yes, Tanya herself knew that she had neither special beauty nor a rich dowry. Her parents died early, and she was the only one who managed to finish college. She worked as a school teacher, teaching Russian language and literature. She loved her profession, but the salary she received was pitiful. Once at the table I tried to tell a funny incident from school life, but Irina Lvovna, without listening to the end, switched the conversation to another topic. And then she said quietly: “You don’t have any sense, go to hell.” Tatyana blushed, but remained silent.

She was generally flexible in character. And the mother-in-law is right: in fact, she is not a match for Seryozha. Why did he only love her? Short, thin, light eyebrows, light hair - a gray mouse. And her Seryozha is tall, handsome, fit. And Sergei’s family is wealthy, but she, Tanya, has no money, no apartment, a room in a communal apartment. Irina Lvovna said:

- Well, Kazan orphan, we accept you into the family. Since Sergei married you...

And Tanya smiled: she really is an orphan from Kazan. No, she was not downtrodden and timid. She could take care of herself. But here it was a completely different case: she loved Seryozha so much that she was ready to love everything connected with him: his family, his home, his friends. Well, it’s okay, when Irina Lvovna understands how much her daughter-in-law loves her husband, how she cares for him, then she herself will change her attitude towards her.

The Petrovs’ eldest daughter, Margarita, a homely Ritulya, did not pay attention to Tanya and did not start conversations with her. She was as tall and thin as Irina Lvovna, and her character was like her mother. Sergei, with his powerful figure and easy-going character, took after his father. An old grandmother, my father’s mother, also lived with the Petrovs.

So the grandmother treated Tanya with love, and Tatyana spent most of her time in her small room. The old woman taught her to knit, told her stories from the childhood of Seryozha and Rituli, and Tanya listened to these stories with joy.

She was unpleasantly struck by her careless attitude towards Irina Lvovna’s grandmother. In front of her household, she behaved politely with her husband’s mother, but when the men were not at home, she shouted at her:

- Well, step aside so you can go to the bathroom! You need to go to work, but you still sit at home all day long! Go to your room and don't get in your way!

- Go away!

Tanya went out into the corridor, but Irina Lvovna was already in the kitchen, and her grandmother was quietly walking along the corridor and looked completely calm and happy with everything. Tanya thought she had misheard.

Soon the young couple left, and the next time Tanya saw her mother-in-law was only a year later. During this year, significant changes took place in the family of the elder Petrovs: Ritulya began to live separately, her old grandmother died, and after her her father-in-law suddenly died of a heart attack. That’s when Irina Lvovna came to her son and daughter-in-law.

After the death of her husband, she lost a lot, but she still behaved arrogantly, spoke in a bossy voice and constantly found fault with her daughter-in-law. It seemed that she was only busy finding a reason for conflict. Tanya was expecting a child and was sitting at home. The pregnancy was difficult and I suffered from toxicosis. It was all the more difficult to bear my mother-in-law’s nagging.

Irina Lvovna saved them for the evening, and when Sergei came home from work, she brought down heavy artillery on him: his idle wife sleeps during the day, but could free time and do some repairs, at least cosmetic ones. Or: a young wife is unfriendly with her mother-in-law, disrespectful. When asked by her son what exactly the inhospitability is expressed in, the mother-in-law pursed her lips: he could have guessed it himself!

Tanya cooked for herself, washed the dishes, including for her mother-in-law, did laundry for three and cleaned the apartment. I was waiting for Irina Lvovna to finally appreciate delicious borscht, or the snow-white linen after washing, or the cleanliness and comfort in the apartment, but I just couldn’t please.

Tanya didn’t know what exactly her mother-in-law said to her husband, but she was amazed when Seryozha once told her with pain:

- Tanya, please be more kind to your mother, don’t offend her. It’s already hard for her after her dad’s death.

Seryozha interrupted and said more forcefully:

- That's it, Tanya! Let's not argue! I understand: you are in a position, you are nervous... But I ask you not to offend my mother!

And after this conversation, Tanya somehow became very upset. When her husband left for work, she cried for a long time, locking herself in the bathroom and turning on the water so that Irina Lvovna would not hear.

And then, while going to the store to do some shopping, Tanya forgot her wallet. I had to go back. Opening front door, she froze on the threshold, hearing the loud, jubilant voice of her mother-in-law, who was talking on the phone:

- Yes, Ritulya! Absolutely correct! I immediately showed her who was the boss of the house! The most important thing is to strike preemptively! I am, after all, the colonel’s wife! You need to attack so that you don’t have to defend... Yes, yes! Preemptive strike! I did it, I did it! Well, I came up with it... Yes... I made it up... Seryozha? Of course I believed it! What, he won’t believe his own mother, or what?! Yes, of course, she did the right thing... Otherwise, just give her free rein, just relax... She’ll quickly sit on your neck! I'm an experienced sparrow, I know how older people are treated if they can't stand up for themselves. Exactly!

Tanya felt weak and felt her knees buckle. She quietly went out into the street, holding on to the railing so as not to fall, because the tears were flowing and she could hardly distinguish the steps.

She reached a deserted square, which was three steps from the house, and sat down on a bench. She cried and remembered how she dreamed of a big, friendly and happy family, dreamed that she, an orphan, would have relatives. And she will love them, because they are Seryozha’s relatives. And maybe she will even call her mother-in-law mom, and she will affectionately say “daughter” to her... Tanya began to cry almost out loud, unable to contain herself. And the baby in the stomach also became agitated and began to kick. She fell silent, afraid for the little one, stopped crying, breathed deeply and, stroking her stomach, said:

- Everything is fine, Kostya, everything is fine... You see, our grandmother decided to deal us a preemptive strike... This is to protect herself, that is, herself... And you and I didn’t even think of offending her, right? She just thought wrongly... That's how it happened... If she knew that we didn't want to offend her, she wouldn't have done that. Nothing. Everything will work out. You and I will forgive her, right? Calm down, my little one, calm down, please! You can't worry there. Everything is fine! I love you very much. Well, have you calmed down?..

Tanya raised her eyes to the gray autumn sky and said quietly:

Holy Mother of God, protect my son and me! You know that I have no parents... Mother, protect us Yourself! Please protect us...

Then she got up and slowly walked into the store. The child calmed down, and Tanya herself felt light and peaceful in her soul.

And a couple of days later, Irina Lvovna announced that she was leaving them. Ritulya called and told her what she had been hiding for several months: she would soon become a mother and would need help around the house.

Irina Lvovna perked up and began to fuss, getting ready:

- My daughter is waiting, she needs me. You can’t refuse to help your own daughter. You're lucky: Sergei married you, and Ritula got caught by some bastard - he got the child pregnant and remember what his name was!

And Seryozha and Tanya were left alone, and then Kostya was born.

My son is now three years old. Tanya remembered how friendly they lived, how her son grew up and how good it was for the three of them. Has their end come? happy life? Tanya sat in the kitchen, staring out the window and forgetting about time. Hearing the cheerful ringing voice of her son and the bass voice of her husband coming from the entrance, she perked up and began to set the table.

A couple of days later, Seryozha went to Ritula to pick up his mother. Irina Lvovna arrived silent, quiet, and thinner. She greeted Tanya quietly and went into the room prepared for her. Kostya was huddled and shy of his grandmother. But the grandmother was silent and almost did not leave her room.

“Well,” thought Tanya, “let it be so.”

She no longer tried to improve relations with her mother-in-law, turning to her only when necessary. The old desire to find loved one disappeared, and Tanya behaved calmly, evenly, but aloof. I remembered how she tried to please her mother-in-law three years ago, how she waited for her kind words, affection, how my heart ached, meeting coldness and hostility - and I understood that this was all in the past.

Seryozha answered the question about Ritul briefly:

– Tanya, you know, my sister raised her daughter alone. Her mother was also a nanny, a cook, and a cleaning lady. And now Margarita is getting married. I sent my daughter to kindergarten; she no longer needs her mother. She began to interfere... And her future husband has his own mother. So...

Tanya remained silent. I just thought: “Irina Lvovna probably became attached to her granddaughter, it was probably difficult for her to part with the child.” I felt a little sorry for my mother-in-law.

And she changed a lot: she no longer had a militant attitude, she became quieter, softer in her manner. Yes, and physically I lost a lot. Apparently, old age humbles people.

Tanya noticed that her mother-in-law liked to watch Kostya play. Sometimes he’ll bring him a rolling ball, or he’ll help him build a house out of cubes. And the grandson began to treat his grandmother no longer so timidly, although he still avoided, did not caress, did not ask to be held in her arms.

One evening, when Seryozha was on duty, Kostya became very capricious. Tanya touched the child’s forehead – it was hot. I set the thermometer and saw with horror that the mercury had risen to forty. Tanya rushed around the room. I grabbed the phone and called " ambulance" The car didn't move for a long time. And Tatyana ran out into the street: what if they took a long time to find the entrance...

When she returned with the doctor, she almost gasped: Kostya was sitting on Irina Lvovna’s lap. He snuggled trustingly and didn’t even cry. And his mother-in-law sang something to him about a gray cat, and Tanya was amazed: it turns out that her voice, always creaky, can be so affectionate...

Kostya was diagnosed with measles. They allowed me to leave him at home and prescribed treatment. And the mother-in-law, to Tanya’s surprise, did not leave her grandson’s side. She leafed through a book with pictures, sang, very out of tune, but with feeling, about a gray cat, and told some fairy tales. She still treated Tanya dryly, only when necessary, but when talking with her grandson, her voice became completely different. She affectionately called the baby Kostyushka and crawled on the carpet, handing him either cubes or a pyramid. Tanya even somehow caught herself standing at the stove and singing a song about that little gray cat. She fell silent in fear: what if her mother-in-law heard and decided that she was being imitated...

And five days later, when the grandson was already recovering, Irina Lvovna herself fell ill. She didn’t get out of bed in the morning, and when Tanya looked into her room, she saw her mother-in-law’s burning face and red eyes. I called an ambulance. The doctor said:

- Well, grandma, it looks like you caught measles from your grandson. The sclera of the eyes are red - the so-called rabbit look, the face is swollen. On the third or fourth day, a rash will appear.

- K-roller! – Kostya, hiding at the door, rejoiced: he had recently learned to pronounce “r”.

– Adults suffer from measles more severely than children, there are complications – bronchitis, pneumonia... What about the hospital? No? Well... Specific treatment measles does not exist. You can only reduce general symptoms intoxication of the body and control body temperature.

Tanya was spinning like a squirrel in a wheel: Kostya, who had recovered, needed care. He grew up kind and a calm child, but during his illness he got used to attention, to the fulfillment of all desires on the fly, and he really liked it... Tanya also looked after her mother-in-law: she gave medicine by the hour, made fruit drinks - either cranberry or lingonberry, prepared lighter food for the sick woman, but more nutritious, she helped me get to the toilet.

But Irina Lvovna was not getting better. The temperature dropped for half an hour, and then the mercury quickly rose again to forty. The lips became feathered, the facial features became sharper. Tanya decided to herself that if the patient’s condition did not improve in the near future, then she would need to be sent to the hospital.

In the evening, the temperature rose again, and Irina Lvovna asked Tanya to dial Rituli’s phone number:

– I want to say goodbye to my daughter and granddaughter.

– Irina Lvovna, of course, I will dial you their number, but not to say goodbye, but just to talk. Why say goodbye?

- I'm dying.

– Irina Lvovna, you will definitely get better, and everything will be fine. You'll see! Just a couple more days and you will be on the mend!

The mother-in-law looked at Tanya carefully:

- Do you really want me to get better?

Tanya was confused by these words and stopped short. I started rearranging fruit drinks and medicines on the chair, and before my eyes: my mother-in-law was holding sick Kostya close to her, she was singing to him about a gray cat, she was crawling after him on the carpet in search of a pyramid. Tanya sat down by her mother-in-law’s bed, took her hot palm in her hands and said from the bottom of her heart:

- Of course I want! Really want to! And you will definitely get better! Christmas is coming... Let's celebrate the holiday together! And Seryozha will bring a Christmas tree, and we will have gifts, and a pie...

- Pie... gifts... Forgive me, Tanya! Please forgive me! Can you?

- For what, Irina Lvovna?

- You know...

Tanya paused and answered simply:

- I know. For a preemptive strike.

The mother-in-law squeezed Tanya’s palms with hot and slightly trembling hands:

- Yes. For a preemptive strike. You know, my mother-in-law was kind and meek. But I offended her. At first casually, in a hurry... And then more and more often. You see, it’s worth telling an old man once: “Get out!” - and then it becomes familiar and pronounced so easily... Oh, if only I could bring everything back! How ashamed I am now for this, Tanya! Do you know when I felt ashamed? When I heard these words from my own daughter. From Rituli.

She shouted them to me with the same intonation, mine, which I remember so well... You know, Tanya, in order to understand how an offended person feels, you need to stand in his place. But the well-fed does not understand the hungry. No, he doesn't understand...

– Irina Lvovna, now I’ll give you some medicine. And morsica.

- Wait. I offended my mother-in-law - and I was afraid that you would also offend me. And she became an example for her own daughter. I'm not angry with her. It is not her fault. She had a good teacher. Tanya, evil always comes back. Right now I, a sick and apparently dying old woman, am telling you banal things. Tanya, I learned them only from my own experience.

The mother-in-law fell silent. Tanya took out the pills, took a glass of water, helped the patient get up, and when, having handed over the medicine, she went to the kitchen for a cup of broth, a voice whispered after her:

- Forgive me, daughter.

Tanya felt these quiet words hit her in the back, so that she faltered. She turned around, walked up to the bed, sat down next to her on the floor, took her mother-in-law by the hand and began to cry. Tears flowed, and along with them the poison of resentment, an old, long-standing resentment, came out, and my soul became warm. She cried, and her mother-in-law stroked her head with her hot, dry palm.

Kostya ran into the room. I saw my mother crying - and her lips trembled, her face grimaced, another moment - and a loud roar would be heard.

– What kind of painting is this by Repin “They Didn’t Expect”? What's going on here? – the voice of the husband who returned from work was feignedly angry, but it contained both anxiety and fear for the people he loved.

Tanya was still sobbing, and Irina Lvovna answered:

“Yes, I’m about to die here, but they won’t allow my daughter and grandson - they say it’s too early.” Apparently I'll have to get better.

Olga ROZHNEVA

Episode no. Episode Contents

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T. Mitkova (NTV) on US actions against international terrorists 2/slb 1/slb 3/slb
T. Mitkova (NTV) about the situation around S. Yastrzhembsky’s statement about launching preventive strikes on Afghanistan 1/slb 1/avg 1/slb
S. Yastrzhembsky about the Taliban’s assistance to Chechen militants 2/wd 0/avg 1/avg
N. Svanidze (RTR) on the interpretation of S. Yastrzhembsky’s statement 1/slb 1/avg 0/avg
S. Yastrzhembsky on the possibility of launching preventive strikes on Afghanistan 1/avg 0/slb 0/avg
Not only in Moscow is Afghanistan called a hotbed of international terrorism. In August 1998, two US embassies in Africa were bombed. Washington received information that Osama Bin Laden, who they consider responsible for these terrorist attacks, had fled to Afghanistan. The US struck the terrorist camps immediately and without any warning. A political sensation in Moscow - Russian Presidential Aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky talks about the possibility of launching preventive strikes on terrorist camps in Afghanistan. In fact, Moscow does not rule out a scenario similar to the one in which the United States acted - they warned Iraq of retaliation and eventually shot down objects in Iraq that were dangerous from Washington’s point of view with their missiles. Sergei Yastrzhembsky today indicated that such development will become possible if there is a threat to national security interests. I will add that the use of such measures is formulated in the Russian Constitution. So, a fragment of today's press conference by the assistant to the head of state. About a week ago, in Mazar Sharif - as you understand, we are talking about the territory that is under the control of the Taliban - a meeting was held in which Bin Laden, Naman Ghani (a fairly well-known Uzbek terrorist) with representatives of Maskhadov took part. As a result of the meeting, a protocol was signed on cooperation between Bin Laden, Halimi (I repeat that this is the government representative in the North) and Maskhadov’s representatives in providing assistance to Chechen militants. We are talking about assistance with human resources, weapons, and ammunition. Afghanistan, under the leadership of the Taliban, has already turned into a hotbed, an abscess of international terrorism. It is absolutely clear - and Yastrzhembsky himself soon emphasized this - that such a statement in the mouth of an official cannot express his personal opinion. Therefore, two interpretations immediately appeared. First, Russia decided to flex its biceps and scare the Taliban. The second is that Russia really decided to bomb the Taliban. The Ministry of Defense leaked: “We are ready, there is no problem. As soon as there is

political decision

- so right away." Sergei Yastrzhembsky, aide to the president, made a sensational statement last week. S. Yastrzhembsky: I would not rule out the possibility of launching preventive strikes if an emergency arises. real threat V

in this case the interests of Russia or the national interests of states that are in Russia, in this region, in friendly, partnership relations. is of the opinion that in 1941 not only Germany made plans to attack the USSR, but also the Soviet General Staff was developing an operation to invade the territories captured by the Reich. However, Hitler was ahead of Stalin.

Response to threat

According to the German theory of a preventive strike, the invasion of the USSR was due to the potential threat posed by the Red Army to the interests of the Reich in the region. Not only Hitler, but also many German military leaders believed that the Soviet Union was ready to attack Germany first. This is precisely what German propaganda tried to convince everyone that “provocations of the Soviet side” were solely to blame for the outbreak of the war.

In the 1990s, this theory was popularized by domestic authors, in particular, former employee of the legal residency of the USSR GRU Viktor Rezun (writing pseudonym Suvorov), who emigrated to London. In his publications, Suvorov argued that the threat of a USSR attack on Germany was not potential, but real, existing in the form ready plan military operation.

Suvorov was supported by a number of Russian historians, including famous ones. The general tone of their statements was that supposedly in mid-May 1941, the Soviet General Staff, on the instructions of Zhukov and Timoshenko, developed a plan for a preventive attack on Germany, which was allegedly even signed by Stalin.

Let's strike first

The name of Operation Thunderstorm was coined by Viktor Suvorov, which was reflected in his book Icebreaker, completed in 1987. Under the name "Thunderstorm" the author suggests a strategic offensive operation The Red Army and Navy to targets located in Eastern and Southeastern Europe with the possibility of further advance to the historical lands of Germany.

According to a number of other authors who continued to develop the concept of a hypothetical preventive war Soviet Union against Germany, the starting point of Operation Thunderstorm should be considered March 11, 1940, when large-scale training fees in the western military districts of the USSR.

According to their estimates, during the training camp, which ended only at the beginning of May 1941, about 2 million 200 thousand soldiers were concentrated near the western borders of the country, in addition, over 8 thousand tanks and armored vehicles, up to 6,500 aircraft and more than 37 thousand guns and mortars.

Some publications even indicate exact date USSR attack on Germany - July 6, 1941. It was by this time that the strategic deployment was supposed to be completed Soviet troops.

A researcher on this topic, Sergei Zakharevich, believes that Operation Thunderstorm was planned to begin with the invasion of Soviet troops in Romania; journalist Leonid Mlechin put forward a version according to which, along with Operation Thunderstorm, Stalin was preparing a strike on the Middle East.

A document entitled “Considerations for the plan for the strategic deployment of forces of the Soviet Union in the event of war with Germany and its allies,” compiled by Vasilevsky, is often cited as a plan for an attack on Germany. There, in particular, it is said that the first strategic goal of the Red Army is the defeat of the main forces German army along the Brest-Demblin line with further prospects for conquering the territories of Poland and East Prussia.

The leader said

Stalin's words are often cited as evidence of the USSR's aggressive intentions towards Germany. For example, the historical toast said by the leader on May 5, 1941 in the Kremlin in honor of graduates of military academies. According to a transcript of the speech made by an employee of the People's Commissariat of Defense K.V. Semenov, Stalin, among other things, said the following:

"Fortresses, cities and settlements the enemy were considered occupied only when an infantry foot entered there. It has always been this way, and it will be so in the future war. The first toast I propose is to the infantry. For the queen of the fields - the infantry!

German historian Joachim Hoffmann is confident that in this speech Stalin unintentionally revealed his plans to start a war with Germany first. In general, all of Hoffman’s works are flavored with an abundance of quotes from various sources, although the scientist’s conclusions are much bolder than the information he gleaned.

For example, referring to the testimony of a captured colonel of the 53rd rifle division Ivan Bartenev, Hoffman reported that Stalin, on the occasion of the graduation of young officers, rejected one of the general’s toasts for a peaceful policy and said: “No, the policy of war!” This became one of the reasons for the historian to call Stalin the initiator of aggressive intentions against Germany.

There are memoirs of the German diplomat Gustav Hilger, who worked in Moscow on the eve of the war. He allegedly witnessed Stalin's speech, declaring that the defensive slogan had long been outdated, and it was time to move on to a policy of forcibly expanding the socialist front.

There are no facts

It must be admitted that to date not a single document has been made public that could, to any extent, indicate an impending USSR attack on Germany. All the researchers' arguments are based on conjectures and assumptions.

In particular, the document mentioned above, written in Vasilevsky’s hand, was kept in his personal safe until 1948, and only then moved to the state archive. Accordingly, it was unlikely to be considered by the General Staff. And in general, the big question is, could a document replete with edits and insertions go to the head of state’s desk? Moreover, a number of researchers are confident that this was not a plan for a preventive strike on Germany, but countermeasures capable of thwarting the aggressive intentions of the German troops.

Historian and writer Arsen Martirosyan draws attention to the fact that by June 1941, the entire Soviet-German border zone was “teeming” with Wehrmacht troops, and in such a situation you would have to be crazy to decide on offensive actions. “What kind of preventive strike in the back of Germany could we be talking about?!” Martirosyan is indignant.


There is growing concern in Russian military circles about the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Thus, the retired general noted that the possible deployment of American medium-range missiles in Europe could render the famous “Perimeter” system (aka “Dead Hand”) useless. But this is not the main thing: changes can even affect military doctrine Russia.

Former Chief of the Main Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces (1994-1996), Colonel General Viktor Esin, complained that after the US withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) Russian system automatic retaliatory nuclear strike "Perimeter" may be useless.

The Perimeter system was developed and put on combat duty back in Soviet times (although sometimes doubts are expressed that it even exists). This system automatically detects signs of a nuclear strike in the event of a surprise enemy attack. And if at the same time the military-political leadership of the country is eliminated, then “Perimeter” launches a “command”, activating the remaining Russian nuclear forces, which strike back at the enemy. This system at one time became a very unpleasant surprise for the West, and it was immediately nicknamed the “Dead Hand”.

“When it works, we will have few funds left - we will be able to launch only those missiles that will survive the first strike of the aggressor,” Esin explained in an interview with the Zvezda newspaper. According to him, by deploying medium-range ballistic missiles in Europe (precisely those prohibited under the INF Treaty), the United States will be able to destroy the bulk of Russian missile systems in the European part, and intercept the rest along the flight path using missile defense.

Let us recall that in October, US President Donald Trump announced his withdrawal from the INF Treaty. This treaty, signed by the USSR and the USA in 1987, prohibits the parties from having ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km. The rupture of this agreement breaks the entire system of nuclear and missile security and will inevitably entail retaliatory actions from Russia.

The fact is that by withdrawing from the INF Treaty, the Americans actually give themselves a free hand to create and deploy short- and medium-range missiles, including, for example, in Europe. The danger of such missiles is their critically short flight time, which allows them to deliver instant disarming nuclear strikes to a friend. Apparently, based on all this, Colonel General Viktor Esin began to think about the effectiveness of the “Dead Hand”. And about whether the Russian concept of a retaliatory – rather than preventive – nuclear strike is generally effective. American military doctrine provides for a preventive nuclear strike.

The editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, Alexei Leonkov, explained that the first disarming strike is not always even delivered with nuclear weapons. “According to the American flash strike strategy, it can be delivered by non-nuclear means to eliminate the positional areas of our ballistic missiles and mobile missile systems. And everything that remains will be finished off with the help of missile defense systems,” he noted.

However, the vice president Russian Academy rocket and artillery sciences, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov does not agree that the US withdrawal from the treaty could make Perimeter ineffective. “In the context of the Americans’ withdrawal from the INF Treaty, this system is especially needed; it needs to be improved and modernized,” Sivkov said.

In principle, all nuclear weapons cannot be destroyed at once, which means that Perimeter will not lose effectiveness, the expert explained. “Missile submarines in positions at sea are unlikely to be destroyed. In addition, in the conditions of a threatened period, strategic bombers with cruise missiles on board will be launched into the air, and they too will not be able to be destroyed,” the source explained.

The coefficient of the final probability of destruction, according to Sivkov, lies within 0.8, that is, even with the most unfavorable development of events, at least 20% of Russia’s nuclear potential for a retaliatory strike will remain. “The strike with medium-range missiles will not be one-time, it will obviously be prolonged. And this duration may be enough to ensure a retaliatory strike either from the Perimeter or from the command post,” he added.

“When the Americans calculated the possibilities of our retaliatory strike after their first disarming, they came to the conclusion that 60% of our missiles would remain, and the retaliatory strike would cause irreparable damage. For almost 70 years now, we have actually been living under nuclear gunpoint, and the presence of nuclear weapons allows us to maintain a restraining balance. If the Americans had the opportunity to strike at Russia, which would not be followed by a response, they would have already taken advantage of it over the years,” emphasized Alexey Leonkov.

However, military officials still believe that Russia needs to take additional steps in the event that the United States deploys short- and medium-range missiles in Europe. According to Esin, Russia needs to accelerate the production of its medium-range missiles, and also focus on the development of hypersonic weapons, for which there are no answers in the West yet.

“To be frank, we don’t yet have an effective response to American medium-range missiles in Europe,” the general noted with alarm.

“In order to provide protection against American medium-range missiles, if they are deployed in Europe, Russia can equip its medium-range missiles with conventional charges so that, even in the context of non-nuclear hostilities, they can strike with conventional weapons at American command posts and their systems.” ,” emphasized Konstantin Sivkov. He also believes that it is necessary to increase the mobile component of strategic nuclear forces, namely: deploy railway missile systems, increase the number of mobile Yars missile systems, ballistic missile submarines, strategic aircraft and airfields for them.

Alexey Leonkov, in turn, noted that today the creation of a new aerospace defense system for the country is almost complete, which includes air defense systems and missile launch warning systems connected by an automated control system. That is, in addition to " Dead hand“A more “live” rapid response system is being created.

In addition, Colonel General Viktor Yesin noted that if the United States begins to deploy its missiles in Europe, we will have no choice but to abandon the retaliatory strike doctrine and move on to the preemptive strike doctrine.

Konstantin Sivkov is also confident that the Russian Federation needs to change its military doctrine and include in it the possibility of a preemptive strike. However, he is confident that this does not negate the need to modernize the Perimeter system.

Leonkov agrees that if the American nuclear arsenal in the form of medium-range missiles is deployed in Europe, the existing doctrine of retaliatory strike in the Russian Federation will most likely be revised.

Nikita Kovalenko

Pentagon chief James Mattis has admitted a likely scenario in which US President Donald Trump could order a preemptive nuclear strike without congressional approval. The Secretary of Defense of the United States made this statement while speaking at a hearing in the Senate Committee on foreign affairs. The meeting was devoted to Washington's use military force abroad.

In response to a question from Senator Edward Markey, are there circumstances that would allow an American leader to launch a preemptive nuclear strike on North Korea or other countries with nuclear weapons, Mattis stressed that this question is hypothetical.

The head of the Pentagon noted that such a scenario could be implemented only if the threat of a nuclear strike on the United States becomes inevitable. He added that such a hypothetical solution would be subject to close scrutiny and called for trust in the existing system, which has proven its effectiveness over decades.

“This is not the only tool in our toolkit,” Mattis said. “I believe that congressional control should not be equated with operational management.”

Democratic Senator Markey tried several times to get a clear answer to his question from the head of the Pentagon, but Mattis refused to comment on the hypothetical situation. He stressed that a preventive strike is only possible if this is the only way to stop nuclear attack against the USA.

“I didn’t say this would happen, we have various traditional means to stop this. The president is obliged to protect the country,” TASS quotes Mattis.

As a result, the congressman demanded closed hearings on this issue with the participation of the United States Secretary of Defense.

In turn, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was present at the hearings, said that not a single US president “has renounced (the possibility of attack. - RT) preemptive strike, and it served us well for 70 years."

  • James Mattis and Rex Tillerson
  • Reuters

"Great Expectations for the Russians"

Also during the Senate hearings, Mattis said that Armed forces The United States conducts regular training to repel hypothetical attacks from North Korea.

Answering a question about the plan of action in the event of a North Korean missile attack, when it would be a matter of minutes rather than days, the Pentagon chief said: “In any case, the president will be raised. I can say that we are working on this.”

He noted that first of all, anti-missile systems and tracking stations in California and Alaska will be used. Then the head of the White House will be presented with a list of possible response actions, including joint actions with American allies in the region.

At the same time, the head of the US State Department, Rex Tillerson, confirmed that Congress did not authorize the use of military force against North Korea.

At the same time, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly noted that Washington is counting on Beijing and Moscow to exert political pressure on Pyongyang. Kelly emphasized that the United States hopes that China will influence the North Korean authorities.

“We also have high hopes for the Russians,” he added.

These statements were made ahead of Donald Trump's big Asian tour, which will visit Japan in early November. South Korea and China. The American President will then take part in a number of major international events, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit.

  • THAAD
  • globallookpress.com
  • Ralph Scott

Old new threats

During a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rex Tillerson also called on Congress to allow the presidential administration to use force against terrorist threats to the United States without setting limits on its use.

“The new authorization for the use of military force should not be geographically limited. As with the current authorization, the administration will need to maintain statutory authority to use military force against an enemy that does not respect or limit itself to borders,” Tillerson said.

According to him, this issue has been fully agreed upon both with the head of the Pentagon and with the rest of the US presidential administration. Tillerson also said that members of the administration will continue to regularly brief Congress so that both parliamentarians and the American people have a clearer understanding of US foreign policy, military goals, and national security efforts.

Let us remind you that the day before, large-scale command post and field exercises of the strategic nuclear forces “Global Thunder” started, within the framework of which units in all areas of responsibility of the US Strategic Command (Stratcom) will be tested.

The exercise scenario involves training responses to “various strategic threats to the United States” and will utilize the full capabilities of Stratcom with the participation of units around the world in real time. During the exercises, capabilities will be tested Space Force, global strike and missile defense systems, as well as surveillance and reconnaissance systems.

Earlier, on October 26, the Russian military, as part of training on strategic management nuclear forces(SNF) worked out the interaction of all components of the nuclear triad. During the exercise, four intercontinental ballistic missiles were launched: three from nuclear submarines in the Barents and Okhotsk seas and one from the Plesetsk cosmodrome.



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